Stanley Cup storylines: 1 big question for every Eastern playoff team
The quest to hoist the Stanley Cup begins Monday. These storylines will affect the championship hopes of the eight teams in the Eastern Conference playoff bracket. (Click to read our breakdown of the Western qualifiers.)
Boston Bruins
Can they avoid the Presidents' Trophy letdown?
The regular-season champion hasn't won the Stanley Cup in a decade or advanced past the second round since 2015. Juggernaut Capitals, Lightning, and Panthers teams reached the 120-point plateau in that span but crumbled when adversity struck in the postseason, most infamously when the Columbus Blue Jackets swept Tampa Bay four years ago.
Those squads weren't the 2022-23 Bruins, whose dominance (65 wins, 135 points) broke NHL records. At plus-128, their goal differential almost doubled that of the second-place Dallas Stars at plus-67. No team in the cap era has iced more 50-point scorers than Boston's eight, according to Stathead. The Bruins' edge in team save percentage over the second-place New York Islanders - .929 to .915 - was as vast as the gap between New York and the 15th-ranked club.
Boston is bulletproof if Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman, who have started a combined seven career playoff games, keep shining in net. The Blue Jackets lit up Andrei Vasilevskiy for 15 goals in four games at the bitter end of his 2019 Vezina Trophy season. Only a comparable - and comparably surprising - barrage would trouble the Bruins.
Florida Panthers
Can the defensemen keep scoring?
Three blue-liners are especially important to the Panthers' playoff hopes: Aaron Ekblad, Gustav Forsling, and emergent sniper and power-play quarterback Brandon Montour. Florida ranks second in the NHL behind the Carolina Hurricanes with 53 goals by defensemen, and those three combined for 43 of them. No other team has three 10-goal players at the position, according to Stathead.
The Panthers rely heavily on this trio, with each member playing more than 23 minutes nightly. Capitalizing on MacKenzie Weegar's departure, Montour scored 73 points to double his previous career high and surge to fifth among NHL defensemen. Erik Karlsson, the 100-point supernova, recorded fewer points than Montour since March 1.
Sixth in scoring but 21st in goals allowed, the Panthers need to pop offensively to orchestrate an upset. They scored five goals or more in 20 games this season, winning all but one, and conceded that many in 24 contests, losing all but one. The forwards who skate with Matthew Tkachuk are safe bets to produce, but the defense corps also has to chip in.
Toronto Maple Leafs
How will the new additions perform?
Five forwards and the netminder who dressed in Toronto's 2022 playoff finale are no longer with the Maple Leafs. On defense, Ilya Lyubushkin also moved on, and Jake Muzzin is out for the season. General manager Kyle Dubas' raft of acquisitions could either no-show against the Lightning or power a long-awaited breakthrough.
Ilya Samsonov put up career numbers (.919 save percentage, 21.24 goals saved above expected) this season, inspiring confidence over his 40 starts. Defenseman Jake McCabe will be counted on to hound Tampa Bay's top scorers. Beyond college signee Matthew Knies, the forwards to watch include 20-goal winger Calle Jarnkrok and former Conn Smythe Trophy winner Ryan O'Reilly, who will center either the second line or a checking trio.
Toronto's core tends to buckle in the biggest moments. Ousted in six straight opening rounds and losers of five consecutive winner-take-all games, the Maple Leafs potted one goal or fewer in each of their last four elimination defeats. Failing to advance with this revamped lineup could get Dubas fired - and trigger many more changes.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Will Vasilevskiy play to his peak?
Consistently indomitable, Vasilevskiy posted a save percentage of .930 or better in seven of Tampa Bay's last 12 playoff series. No team has shelled him in the postseason since 2019, and the defending champion Avalanche alone managed to beat him four times.
The Maple Leafs have reason to believe he's vulnerable. In defeat last spring, they inflicted his worst save percentage in a playoff round (.897) since the Columbus debacle. The Lightning fell from sixth place in goals against last season to 14th in 2022-23. Losing nine of Vasilevskiy's 15 starts in March and April exacerbated their late-year slide and handed Toronto home-ice advantage in Round 1.
By one key metric, though, the seven-year starter just authored his greatest season. Vasilevskiy saved 26.41 goals above expected, according to Evolving Hockey, signaling that he could offset the Lightning's defensive slip and be the MVP of any matchup.
Carolina Hurricanes
Can defensive structure make up for losing Svechnikov?
The Islanders were the only Eastern playoff club to score fewer goals than the Hurricanes this season. Injuries are partly to blame: Back-to-back Achilles tears befell Max Pacioretty, limiting him to five games, while Andrei Svechnikov bowed out for the year in mid-March with a torn ACL.
The rare dynamo for a defensive powerhouse, Svechnikov is the Hurricanes' second-leading goal and point producer over the past five seasons, trailing Sebastian Aho. Without him, Carolina must constrict and dispirit opposing shooters. The Hurricanes permit the fewest shots and scoring chances in the league, per Natural Stat Trick, which is why they ranked second in goals allowed despite a middling .902 team save percentage.
Head coach Rod Brind'Amour's vaunted defensive structure has shown cracks. Carolina ranked 12th in goals against per game after Svechnikov got hurt. They were 26th in scoring in that period and went 9-8-1.
New York Islanders
Are improvements made without Barzal sustainable?
Mathew Barzal, raiser of the Islanders' offensive ceiling during recent deep playoff runs, is about to return after missing two months with a lower-body injury. New York took off when he went down, recording a .534 points percentage before Barzal exited the lineup on Feb. 18 and improving to .652 ever since.
Tightening up keyed the turnaround. Before Barzal's injury, the Islanders allowed more five-on-five scoring chances and high-danger shot attempts than every team except the lowly Anaheim Ducks, according to Natural Stat Trick. Ilya Sorokin's .928 save percentage propped them up. But New York has limited such chances at a top-10 rate since the injury, and Sorokin's five-on-five save percentage in the span has climbed to .934.
Sorokin astonished this season by saving 51.36 goals above expected, the most league-wide since 2010, per Evolving-Hockey. The Islanders, meanwhile, scored 0.19 more goals per game without Barzal despite their power play running on fumes (10.9% conversion rate after Feb. 18). Kyle Palmieri, Hudson Fasching, and Pierre Engvall are among the forwards who elevated their play to support Brock Nelson in his 75-point career year.
New Jersey Devils
How much does inexperience matter?
Four of the Devils' most prolific forwards - Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, and Dawson Mercer - are between 21 and 24 years old with either minimal or zero playoff experience. Key contributors at every position, from Yegor Sharangovich to Damon Severson to goalie Vitek Vanecek, have never or barely appeared on the stage.
This isn't a roster-wide issue. Timo Meier, Dougie Hamilton, and Ryan Graves all embarked on deep runs with their previous teams. Ondrej Palat and Erik Haula have competed in the Stanley Cup Final. New Jersey is a genuine threat, ranking second behind Boston in Hockey Reference's Simple Rating System. But this is the first significant test for the young core and parts of the supporting cast.
By tallying 99, Hughes put up the ninth-most points in a season for a player aged 21 or younger since the 2005 lockout, per Stathead. Three stars who earned higher spots on the list made their playoff debuts that same year, variously losing in Round 1 (Sidney Crosby in 2007), falling in Game 7 of the second round (Connor McDavid in 2017), and surging to a championship (Eric Staal in 2006).
New York Rangers
Can Kane, Tarasenko summon playoff magic?
Two departed forwards, Andrew Copp and Frank Vatrano, were among the six Rangers players who hit double digits in points during last year's charge to the Eastern Conference Final. Depth scoring can swing a series, and with that in mind, general manager Chris Drury traded draft capital before the deadline to bring in starrier rentals.
New York's .667 points percentage since March 2, the night of Patrick Kane's debut, led the Metropolitan Division in that span. Vladimir Tarasenko, another Stanley Cup champion, compiled a five-game point streak in April. Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider, and Vincent Trocheck all continue to produce, giving the Rangers enviable firepower up front.
Kane ranks fifth among active NHLers in career playoff goals and points. Tarasenko is 16th on the goals leaderboard. In Drury's dream scenario, they deliver in the clutch and deliver the Stanley Cup to Manhattan.
Nick Faris is a features writer at theScore.