NFL season-long props: Best bets to lead the league in receiving yards
Since the days of Jerry Rice, just three receivers have surpassed the legendary wideout's single-season yards-per-game average from his epic 1995 campaign: Josh Gordon, Calvin Johnson, and Julio Jones. Cooper Kupp's 114.5 yards per contest almost made him the fourth, though his 1,947 total receiving yards cleared the next most prolific pass-catcher by 331.
Yet Kupp wasn't a popular pick to lead the league in receiving yards last season. He entered the campaign with 66-1 odds due to his stature and the fact that he'd never previously topped 72 yards per game. So, as we look at the oddsboard, there are two questions to ask:
- Can Kupp repeat his monster season?
- Who can make a massive Kupp-like leap this year?
Odds to lead the NFL in receiving yards
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | +750 |
| Justin Jefferson | +750 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | +900 |
| Davante Adams | +1200 |
| CeeDee Lamb | +1400 |
| Stefon Diggs | +1400 |
| Travis Kelce | +1600 |
| Deebo Samuel | +2000 |
| Mike Evans | +2000 |
| Tyreek Hill | +2000 |
| AJ Brown | +2500 |
| Mark Andrews | +2500 |
| DJ Moore | +3000 |
| Jerry Jeudy | +3000 |
| Keenan Allen | +3000 |
| Mike Williams | +3000 |
| Tee Higgins | +3000 |
| Courtland Sutton | +4000 |
| DK Metcalf | +4000 |
| Diontae Johnson | +4000 |
| Hunter Renfrow | +4000 |
| Marquise Brown | +4000 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | +4000 |
| Michael Thomas | +4000 |
Odds available on theScore Bet, players not listed above available at 50-1 or longer
All four of Rice, Johnson, Jones, and Gordon saw their receiving yards significantly drop following their league-leading seasons. However, Megatron and Jones finished third and second, respectively, in their next campaigns.
Best bets
Justin Jefferson (+750)
With the historical likelihood that Kupp's numbers dip down, Jefferson doesn't need a breakout campaign to usurp the Super Bowl MVP. He had 1,616 yards last season, which is comparable to Jones', Johnson's, and Rice's numbers before their biggest years.
Jefferson actually had more yards before the catch than Kupp last season. There's plenty of room for statistical improvement if he can get loose for more than 482 yards after the catch.
Courtland Sutton (+4000)
Sutton looked ready for a breakout season in 2020 after posting more than 1,100 yards in 2019, but he tore his ACL in Week 1. He returned last year but had 26 fewer targets in two more starts thanks to some rough quarterback play in Denver.
But even with Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock throwing Sutton passes in 2021, only three players had a greater average depth of target (ADOT) that year, and two are no longer in the NFL. Sutton also had a higher average yards-per-catch mark than Jefferson last season.
After a healthy offseason, Sutton can resume his previous career trajectory now that he gets to catch passes from Russell Wilson.
Michael Pittman (+4000)
Pittman's situation is similar to Sutton's with Matt Ryan taking over as the Colts' signal-caller. Although Indy's presumed run-first approach makes Pittman a long shot, he was 18th in total targets last year with Carson Wentz at quarterback. If Ryan's presence means the Colts throw more, maybe Pittman lands the high-volume role Jones assumed during his and Ryan's Falcons heyday.
Gabriel Davis (+5000)
Defenses focused on Stefon Diggs last season in a way he'd never seen before after he totaled a league-high 1,535 receiving yards in 2020. With Josh Allen forced to look elsewhere, he found Davis, particularly in the playoffs.
Davis now gets a chance to start for the first time in his career with Emmanuel Sanders and his 72 targets out. Of the 17 players with a higher ADOT than Davis last season, only Sutton, Tyler Lockett, and DeVonta Smith can be expected to have a similar target share. However, Lockett and Smith have an inferior quarterback.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.