2022 SEC title odds: Picking your path to value

When betting on any of the football bowl subdivision conference championship markets, the first thing to understand is that you're trying to find value on potential moneyline pricing for an eventual title game. That concept is no truer than when it comes to college football's best conference.

For conferences like the SEC, getting atop the East and West for a berth in Atlanta is the first step. With Georgia in the East and Alabama in the West, it seems inevitable those two teams will meet. Lest we forget, they've actually only gone head-to-head in the SEC title game three times during Nick Saban's tenure.

As we look at the oddsboard, the championship prices for the two powerhouses practically act as moneyline projections should they both eventually win their respective divisions, as expected.

SEC championship odds

The favorites

A bet on Alabama means you're expecting their stock to rise to the point where they're longer than a 3-point favorite. Alabama is set to return impact players on both sides of the ball - Bryce Young will take the Tide's offense up a notch, and Will Anderson leads the annually terrifying Crimson defense.

The case against backing Alabama begins with the fact that Georgia was a 6-point favorite last year in this matchup, and while they've lost a ton to the NFL draft, it's within reason Kirby Smart will have ample talent to replace anything lost and be an undefeated favorite again. That thinking would lead you to a bet on Georgia as an underdog now, hoping that at the very least this rivalry is lined closer to pick'em.

The sleepers

LSU and Florida made trips to Atlanta in 2019 and 2020, respectively - both years where we expected a Georgia-Alabama championship. Who might be able to elbow their way in this season?

If fading them, you can't expect Alabama or Georgia to lose more than once, so the team you are backing can't either. Which brings up the matter of a tiebreaker. Since all the teams play each other in-division, the first (and likely only) tiebreaker is head-to-head.

If you're in the West, you can't lose to Alabama and hope they lose twice elsewhere. So, the recipe to usurp a division powerhouse is to beat them and suffer a loss elsewhere.

Alabama's lost five times at Bryant-Denny Stadium in the last 13 years, so while Texas A&M is the third choice from oddsmakers, you probably want to look at a team in the West that gets to host the Tide this season. Bama's toughest in-division tests will be at Arkansas and LSU this season.

Brian Kelly gets a "welcome to the SEC" schedule in his first year with a southern accent, making trips to Auburn, Florida, Arkansas, and Texas A&M. While the Razorbacks get a neutral-ish game against the Aggies in Dallas and their toughest true road game is at Jordan-Hare. Who knows what we'll see from Auburn this season, so an Arkansas split in those games along with an upset of the Tide might be enough to call the Hogs to Atlanta.

In the East, the defending national champions have a cushy road schedule with South Carolina, Missouri, Mississippi State, and Kentucky. Since it would be optimistic to think Tennessee, Florida, or Auburn could head between the hedges and live to tell about it, the Wildcats are your best guess at a possible upset.

Like Arkansas, Kentucky has the schedule to drop just one other game in the conference. The Wildcats don't see Alabama, LSU, Auburn, or Texas A&M as part of their divisional crossover, so if you're looking at low-investment flyer bets with an eye on hedging in December - with each at 50-1 - it might be raining 'Cats and Hogs.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.