49ers-Packers player props: Key targets in a classic matchup
Wisconsin music legend Les Paul is in the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame and the National Inventors Hall of Fame for the creation of the solid-body guitar. Aaron Rodgers is headed for the Pro Football Hall of Fame, but his attempt at broadcasting glory as host of "Jeopardy!" won't result in another enshrinement for him.
Paul was the godfather to Steve Miller, who grew up in Milwaukee but moved to the Bay Area to create his eponymously-named band. With this classic matchup between the 49ers and Packers, and Rodgers mirroring Miller's move, we'll turn back the clock to the Steve Miller Band for a classic rock theme for our player prop picks on Saturday night.
You might think I'm kidding, but I'm going to fade Davante Adams with my best player prop play in this game. That sounds crazy when you look at the box score from Week 3 and see that Adams had 12 catches for 132 yards the last time versus San Francisco. However, that was against a secondary that had Josh Norman, Dontae Johnson, and Deommodore Lenoir play a collective 95 total snaps opposite of Emmanuel Moseley. Meanwhile, K'Waun Williams played just six snaps.
By comparison, that trio played a total of seven snaps last week - all Johnson - while a healthy Williams played 62 and rookie cornerback Ambry Thomas played all 72. Thomas didn't play at all until Week 14, but the 49ers have now sorted out the personnel in their secondary.
We'll take the under on Adams, hoping that Rodgers' pinpoint downfield accuracy will be affected by the cold of January at Lambeau Field and that the 49ers can keep the wideout's average yards per catch down - allowing us to "Take The Money And Run."
Pick: Adams under 94.5 receiving yards
A TD that's definitely going to happen
We can't talk all week about the 49ers' ability to take advantage of the Packers' porous run defense, as we did in the game preview, and then ignore Elijah Mitchell's odds of scoring a touchdown. While Deebo Samuel is San Francisco's "Space Cowboy" with outside runs near the goal line, Kyle Shanahan is fine with having Jimmy Garoppolo hand the ball off for a run through the line where Green Bay is vulnerable.
Pick: Mitchell anytime touchdown (+130)
A TD that probably won't happen ... but maybe it does
Shanahan can be a play-calling magician from the sideline, and Rodgers can be one on the field. We're looking for some "Abracadabra" in a long shot touchdown scorer, and if we had seen the 49ers' "Number 5" on the field recently, I'd try Trey Lance (+600) to score like he did with no time left in the first half the last time these teams met.
At his age, he doesn't "Fly Like An Eagle," but Green Bay's veteran tight end Marcedes Lewis does get looks in the end zone from Rodgers. San Francisco is required to focus on Adams and the Packers' tailbacks near the goal line, which should allow Lewis to use his ample size in one-on-one situations to get position in the end zone.
Pick: Lewis anytime touchdown (+650)
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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