NFL upset of the week: Vikings to Cook up a victory at Lambeau

After a string of big swings that missed for one reason or another, we got back in the win column with a little luck last week. Full disclosure: When we backed the Bears to beat the Seahawks, it was with an eye on Justin Fields starting and Andy Dalton as the backup plan. Instead, the quarterback carousel left Nick Foles with the start. He turned back the clock with a last-minute victory, and we got back above +5 units for the season on our weekly moneyline underdog bet.

As we land on the season's penultimate week, let's look to Sunday night for a substantial upset in a rematch after our underdog won the first meeting.

The Spot

The Packers beat the Browns last Saturday and have their eye on the top seed in the NFC, while the Vikings lost to the Rams on Sunday and have their playoff hopes hanging by a thread. While both teams have something to play for, there's a difference between fighting for your season and playing for a potential week off.

Vikings' offense vs. Packers' defense

For Minnesota to win, the recipe is simple: Cook up what the Browns did last week, but hold the copious interceptions from the quarterback. Baker Mayfield throwing the ball to the other team couldn't have been all that surprising, but reputation aside, a similar performance from Kirk Cousins would be.

Though Cousins has thrown four interceptions in his last three games, he only has seven on the season. Six weeks ago, Cousins had 341 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. For his career, he has a 110.4 passer rating and an 18-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio against Green Bay.

More important in mirroring what the Browns did on offense is the health and success of Dalvin Cook. The Vikings tailback has averaged 5.0 yards per carry against the Packers in his career and had dominant performances the last two times these teams met at Lambeau Field. As seen last Saturday, the Packers' run defense isn't any better than in past years. In fact, at 4.8 yards per carry and tied for worst in the NFL, it's as bad as it's ever been.

Packers' offense vs. Vikings' defense

Aaron Rodgers is awesome; against the Vikings, against everyone. But this is a game in which he should get limited opportunities if Minnesota can score early and get a lead with long drives against Green Bay's defense. That was the case last week when the Packers only scored 24 points. They'll need more than that here.

Despite their excellent record, the Packers have struggled to start strong this season, rarely leading after the first quarter. It's a lot easier to come back or take the lead late against the Bears, Lions, Seahawks, and - when Mayfield throws four picks - the Browns.

More to the point in our weekly search for value, we're getting a +240 price on a team that I'll bet has a lead at some point in the first half. That lead will probably be a touchdown since last week marked the first game this season that didn't see the Vikings with a seven-point advantage.

We're getting close to a touchdown here, and the moneyline is high anyway, in part because Adam Thielen is out for the season. But we're not making this bet based on Minnesota's versatile passing game. Justin Jefferson is certainly enough for Cousins, but a win will come on the back of Cook. The Vikings will find strength in an early lead, and a second-half push from the defense will allow them to hang on for their second win over Green Bay this season - and keep hope alive in Minneapolis.

Pick: Vikings +240

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.