NBA Thursday betting preview: Knicks, Spurs in for defensive duel
Our Tuesday plays went 2-1, and we beat the closing line by 1.5 points on the lone loser. That'll win you a lot of money over the long haul.
Let's dive into Thursday's card and see where the value's at.
Spurs @ Knicks (-4.5), 215.5
Bettors should expect a low-scoring game when the Spurs take on the Knicks.
San Antonio's gone under the total in four straight games following the second of a back-to-back, which applies on Thursday after the club played in Brooklyn Wednesday. All four unders haven't been close, falling short of the total by an average of 15.6 points per contest.
The Spurs just played four consecutive bottom-10 scoring defenses, but get a quick turnaround against a feisty Knicks defense. The unit's quietly pacing the NBA in a handful of categories, including scoring (104.9 PPG) and 3-point percentage allowed (33.6%).
New York's hit four of the last five unders as a home favorite, while four of the last five meetings between the two have cashed.
Pick: Under 215.5
Bucks (-8.5) @ Pacers, 240.5
Pacers totals are getting a bit out of hand - five of the last nine have closed 240 or higher - but they're certainly warranted. The offense is up to No. 5 in pace and No. 7 in scoring, while the defense has plummeted to dead last in paint points allowed per contest.
Meanwhile, the Bucks are a perfect shootout partner.
Milwaukee enters the night No. 3 in pace and No. 6 in scoring offense, while the defense is in the bottom-10 in points per game allowed. The club's gone over the total in 20 of the last 29 after an outright win and 10 of 14 following a double-digit blowout.
Pick: Over 240.5
Kings @ Grizzlies (-7.5), 232.5
A handful of teams across the league have surged against the spread at various points of the season. The Jazz, Suns, and Knicks were all hot commodities in the betting markets, while the latter currently leads the league in cover rate (44-24-1 against the spread, 64.7%).
The Grizzlies are making one last push.
Memphis is second in the NBA behind New York with a 42-27 ATS record. The club's mowed through the calendar over the last two months, covering 21 of its last 31 games. The franchise will be another attractive side Thursday, but I think the value here is with the Kings.
Sacramento's quietly covered six straight as a road underdog, winning four of those outright. The Kings are also 5-2 ATS the last seven against the Grizzlies. Take the points with the visitors.
Pick: Kings +7.5
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.