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NFL upset of the week: Panthers to keep underdog streak alive vs. Saints

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Each week during the NFL season, we'll focus on one underdog with a chance to pull off the outright upset. Last week, we were dead wrong about the Browns (+160) snapping their road losing streak against the Steelers, dropping to 2-4 with -0.15 units won in the process.

All it takes is one upset to flip our fortunes, and this week, we're taking a big swing on the Panthers (+290) in a compelling spot against the vulnerable Saints.

Don't sleep on Bridgewater, Panthers

Aside from a nasty run to end the 2019 season, the Panthers have consistently been among the most undervalued teams in the betting market, and that continues this year despite repeated success as underdogs.

That's long been the story for Teddy Bridgewater, who's famously 19-6 against the spread in his career as an underdog. What's less known is that he's won 12 of those 25 games straight up, including three consecutive outright wins in that spot this season.

The Panthers have been an above-average team by DVOA, and they're tied for seventh in net yards per play (0.5), a solid metric for evaluating team strength with less randomness. The Saints are tied for fifth in net yards per play (0.6), and they're a few spots higher in DVOA.

Are these teams really so far apart that the Panthers should be priced at +290, especially when they consistently cash in similar spots?

Saints struggle in chalk spots

We've picked on the Saints in this column multiple times this year, and for good reason - they're 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as home favorites, and New Orleans has been especially brutal as chalk. In the Saints' last four games, they've lost outright to the Raiders (+170) and Packers (+155), and New Orleans has needed to erase double-digit deficits against the Lions (+135) and Chargers (+260).

All four of those contests came without star receiver Michael Thomas, who could miss yet another matchup after injuring his hamstring on Wednesday. Carolina's pass defense has been surprisingly effective this year, but that's still an area of weakness for the Panthers. Much like against the Raiders, though, the Saints' offense without Thomas might not be equipped to exploit that mismatch.

Their own defense might be an even bigger issue. New Orleans' pass defense ranks 15th in DVOA and is tied for 30th in PFF coverage grade, signaling a potential issue ahead of a clash with the Panthers' pass-happy offense. If Carolina gets hot in the fourth quarter, as it has multiple times this year, the Saints will be in trouble.

Why the Panthers will win

The last time we picked against the Saints as touchdown favorites, we warned that it's always risky banking on a big underdog. But we still won.

This spot feels awfully similar to that one, when the Saints' offense never found its rhythm, and Derek Carr and the Raiders' assortment of weapons exposed New Orleans' defense in the intermediate game.

If the Saints find their groove and win by 20 points, don't be surprised. And if Bridgewater outduels former teammate Drew Brees in a shootout? Don't say we didn't warn you.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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