Best long shot Heisman bet: Tanner Morgan is worth a flier
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I wouldn't get accustomed to betting the long shots for Heisman.
Despite Joe Burrow's surge in 2019 and Lamar Jackson taking the college football world by storm in 2016, the market's realized that the award is tailored to quarterbacks. Case in point: the days of finding insane value on high-upside signal-callers is all but over.
But that doesn't mean a couple players aren't priced incorrectly. Today, we'll talk about the one quarterback down the oddsboard nobody's talking about.
Odds to win the 2020 Heisman trophy
| Player | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| QB Justin Fields | Ohio State | +400 |
| QB Trevor Lawrence | Clemson | +475 |
| QB Spencer Rattler | Oklahoma | +1000 |
| QB Sam Ehlinger | Texas | +1200 |
| QB Jamie Newman | Georgia | +1400 |
| RB Chuba Hubbard | Oklahoma State | +1600 |
| RB Travis Etienne | Clemson | +1800 |
| QB Ian Book | Notre Dame | +2000 |
| QB Kedon Slovis | USC | +2500 |
| QB Kyle Trask | Florida | +2500 |
| QB Mac Jones | Alabama | +2500 |
| QB Sam Howell | UNC | +2500 |
| QB Bo Nix | Auburn | +2800 |
| QB Myles Brennan | LSU | +2800 |
| QB Spencer Sanders | Oklahoma State | +3300 |
| QB Micale Cunningham | Louisville | +4000 |
| RB Najee Harris | Alabama | +4000 |
| QB Sean Clifford | Penn State | +4000 |
| QB Brock Purdy | Iowa State | +5000 |
| CB Derek Stingley Jr. | LSU | +5000 |
| LB Hamilcar Rashad Jr. | Oregon State | +5000 |
| RB Journey Brown | Penn State | +5000 |
| QB Tanner Morgan | Minnesota | +5000 |
| RB Trey Sanders | Alabama | +5000 |
| WR Tutu Atwell | Louisville | +6600 |
| WR Devonta Smith | Alabama | +6600 |
| QB Dillon Gabriel | UCF | +6600 |
| WR Ja'Marr Chase | LSU | +6600 |
| RB Jarret Patterson | Buffalo | +6600 |
Best bet
Tanner Morgan - QB, Minnesota (+5000)
Morgan may have been the best player you didn't know about last season.
He blossomed in a big way after inconsistencies in 2018, registering 3,253 passing yards and 30 touchdowns, which ranked No. 14 in the country.
Justin Fields is undoubtedly the best returning quarterback in the Big Ten, but the gap between him and Morgan isn't as wide as you'd think.
Highest graded passing offenses:
— PFF College (@PFF_College) March 22, 2020
1. LSU Tigers - 94.0
2. Ohio State Buckeyes - 92.0
3. Oklahoma Sooners - 90.4
4. Minnesota Golden Gophers- 90.2 pic.twitter.com/DANFDyNDf4
PFF graded Morgan as the second-best quarterback in the country when under pressure last season, behind only Burrow. When he had a clean pocket, Morgan posted a graded play rate that's No. 1 among returning FBS signal-callers.
If you're betting a long shot for Heisman, you need a bit of recklessness, too. Morgan will give you just that.
Not only did the 6-foot-2 quarterback average 10.2 yards per attempt last season, he was brilliant throwing the deep ball.
In all situations - pressured or not - Morgan recorded the third-lowest rate in the country of uncatchable passes on balls that traveled 10-plus yards down the field.
DIME. 🔥
— CFB Kings (@CFBKings) November 30, 2019
Minnesota strikes first with a 51-yard touchdown pass from Tanner Morgan to Rashod Bateman. #WISCvsMINN pic.twitter.com/QgV5emjJnb
Morgan orchestrated Minnesota's offense to perfection last season. He produced two 1,000-yard receivers, helping the Golden Gophers average roughly a full touchdown more per game than 2018. He has one of those receivers back with Rashod Bateman, not to mention a well-rounded cast of skill players who contributed last season.
If you're in need of a flier, this is the best one on the board right now..
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.