NFL win total matchups: Packers stand no chance vs. Cowboys
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NFL win totals for the 2020 season have been available to bettors for a while now. If you're already keen on a couple of teams, I have just the market for you.
Let me introduce you to NFL win total matchups. While a standard win total involves betting one team to go over or under a certain number, matchups feature two teams with a "spread." In this case, that spread is related to how many more games one team is favored to win compared to another over the course of a full NFL season. It's a neat market to get into, and it's helpful when you're high on a specific squad and low on another.
Let's dive into some of the best bets for the 2020 season.
Cowboys ML (-115) vs. Packers
No spread to worry about here, just the Cowboys to win more games than the Packers. This is a strong bet right out of the gate considering the respective trajectories of these two clubs.
Green Bay is coming off a 13-win season, but the franchise could be in for a downturn. The Packers were on the long end of the stick in most close games last season, going 8-1 in contests decided by a single score; there's a reason Pythagorean wins projected the Packers closer to 10-6 than to 13-3.
Then there's Green Bay's draft class, which included quarterback Aaron Rodgers' heir apparent in the first round - and not a single weapon at wide receiver for the incumbent thereafter. How does that play out in the locker room?
Conversely, Dallas went 8-8 during the 2019 regular season but played like a projected 11.2-win team. There was no drama for the Cowboys during the draft; in fact, they picked up a couple of immediate starters on both sides of the ball.
After being middle of the pack in terms of schedule strength in 2019, the Cowboys have the league's third-easiest schedule in 2020 based on their opponents' winning percentages last year. This is a no-brainer.
Saints -1 (-130) vs. Buccaneers
The Buccaneers were 55-1 to win the Super Bowl prior to free agency. After signing a 42-year-old quarterback and trading for a tight end who hasn't played since the 2018 season, they're now 10-1 in the title odds. Does that make sense to you?
I don't have a ton of faith in Tampa Bay's ability to make noise in the playoffs, but this team could do some damage during the regular season; after all, the Buccaneers get the Falcons and Panthers twice each. But even with the additions of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, Tampa's roster has plenty of holes. I can't say the same about New Orleans.
The Saints have won at least 11 games in three straight seasons, going 13-3 last year despite quarterback Drew Brees missing a handful of games. They're arguably the team to beat in the NFC, and with a schedule that ranks among the 10 easiest in the NFL, they should have no problem mirroring last season's win total.
Cowboys -1 (-130) vs. Texans
It's not always fun to use the same team twice, but this is why the win total matchup market is elite; there are so many extra spots where you can take advantage. I'm taking the Cowboys again, and this time I'm matching them up with the Texans.
Like Green Bay, Houston is a franchise that's coming off a strong year but could fall back down to earth hard in 2020.
As someone who had a Texans under 8.5 wins ticket last season, I'm still kicking myself after the result. Houston had no problem going over the total, but it was fluky: The Texans went 8-3 in one-score games and played like a team projected to 7.3 games - a far cry from their actual record of 10-6.
I have no clue what the Texans are doing internally (nor do most casual football fans). Head coach and general manager Bill O'Brien traded away one of the league's top three receivers for a running back, shipped out a second-round pick for a receiver who suffered two concussions over a 25-day span last season, then made Laremy Tunsil the highest-paid offensive lineman in football with a reported three-year, $66-million extension. That's some unique roster construction there.
To top it off, this matchup pits Dallas and its third-easiest schedule against a Texans squad with the eighth-toughest slate in 2020.
When the Cowboys go 7-9 next season, this surely won't backfire.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.