Fantasy: Brady's impact on Evans, Godwin, and other Bucs playmakers

Recent fantasy articles

Tom Brady is about to become a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

That fact still doesn't seem real, and though it'll take a while to fully sink in, fantasy managers need to assess what this means for the Bucs' skill-position stars.

So let's dive into the fantasy outlook for key players in Tampa's offense as Brady replaces Jameis Winston.

Tom Brady

Brady, arguably the GOAT, will attempt to write the final chapter of his storied career without Bill Belichick, Josh McDaniels, and the New England Patriots organization.

The setting is ideal: A warm-weather climate on a team loaded with talent at skill positions. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin make up the best receiver tandem in the league and O.J. Howard is oozing potential at tight end. It's a big change from last year, when Brady relied heavily on an aging slot receiver in Julian Edelman (153 targets) and a pass-catching running back in James White (95 targets) as his primary weapons. The next highest target total on the team was Phillip Dorsett (54).

Though the Bucs' offensive line may represent a downgrade in the eyes of some, Tampa's blocking unit is more middle of the pack than bottom-feeder. It came in seventh in Pro Football Focus' offensive-line rankings following the 2019 season and general manager Jason Licht will no doubt be searching for linemen in free agency and the draft to help protect his new asset.

Bruce Arians, Brady's new head coach, has a long history of working with top-tier passers like Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger, and Carson Palmer. In fact, Palmer might be the closest comparison as a quarterback who joined Arians late in his career and produced a couple of quality seasons, including a top-five fantasy finish in 2015.

Arians came out of retirement to take over the Bucs last season and, along with coordinator Byron Leftwich, helped oversee an offense that was top five in passing attempts, passing yards, passing touchdowns, and overall first downs.

This is where we get to the real challenge: Asking any quarterback to reproduce those numbers in his first season with a new club is a tall task, let alone a 43-year-old leaving the only system he's ever known as a pro. Brady's supporters will blindly point to his success in New England, but legacy doesn't dictate fantasy production.

Brady's in decline - his completion percentage and yards per attempt have fallen in three straight seasons. We can expect increased efficiency as he moves to Tampa, and the team will see a drastic decline in turnovers after Winston's 30-interception debacle, but projecting Brady to accumulate high-end fantasy results like Winston delivered is unrealistic.

Tampa Bay's defense is vastly improved and ranked fifth in Football Outsiders' defensive DVOA in 2019. With Brady at the helm on offense, this team will win more games, reducing the amount of time it's throwing the ball in comeback mode. While the Bucs absolutely give Brady a better chance to be a weekly fantasy starter, you shouldn't convince yourself this is Peyton Manning joining the Broncos.

Brady's fantasy ceiling at this point in his career is as a low-end QB1, making him worthy of a late-round pick in upcoming drafts, though the hype will likely propel his ADP far higher.

Chris Godwin/Mike Evans

Both Godwin and Evans finished 2019 as top-12 fantasy receivers in all formats. For Evans, it was his sixth consecutive 1,000-yard campaign - a feat he's accomplished every year since being drafted. Meanwhile, it was an easily predicted breakout for Godwin, who was finally given a full-time role.

As much as Brady's arrival is a win for the franchise, there's simply not much room for this duo to grow.

Godwin emerged as the safer fantasy play a year ago and that shouldn't change given Brady's history favoriting slot receivers like Edelman and Wes Welker. Though Evans saw more targets per game last season, Godwin's catch rate was 15% higher, leading him to average one full reception more per outing than his teammate on the outside. He also bested Evans in yards and touchdowns, while racking up more fantasy points than every pass-catcher not named Michael Thomas.

Improved QB efficiency and more sustained drives will help counter a potential volume decrease, securing Godwin and Evans spots among my top-10 fantasy wideouts for 2020.

O.J. Howard

Howard was one of 2019's biggest fantasy busts and it went deeper than just Arians' offense historically not using its tight end.

Despite playing more games, Howard failed to match his 2018 stats, while committing a variety of foolish on-field errors we hadn't seen over his first two NFL seasons.

At 25, he remains one of the most promising young talents at the position and a breakout could still be possible. He's one year removed from receiving PFF's second-highest all-around grade for a tight end, sandwiched between George Kittle and Travis Kelce.

However, anyone who's looking at Brady as a Howard savior may be a little misguided. New England went out of its way to feature tight ends and had one of the best ever in Rob Gronkowski. Arians' offense hasn't shown a desire to use Howard that way.

Though he has the tools to be a poor-man's Gronk, the biggest issue is volume. Cameron Brate had more targets than Howard last year. Howard saw a late-season surge in December, with at least 45 yards in four straight games, but that only occurred when injuries hit the receiving corps.

Until we know how this offense plans to mold around Brady's preferences, Howard has to be considered a fringe TE1, with as much of a chance to break out as he has to fall flat once again.

Ronald Jones

Jones led the Buccaneers with 724 rushing yards on 172 carries last season and showed flashes of potentially emerging as a lead back down the stretch.

It's possible he's given an opportunity to prove himself further, but with Brady in the picture, an upgrade - or at least a running mate - seems likely. Investing in Jones prior to the draft is a risky fantasy move. Brady will want someone he can trust lining up next to him, serving as the type of safety valve James White was in New England.

Jones doesn't fit that profile. His 31 receptions in 2019 are a bit misleading, since he's not a natural pass-catcher and was often replaced on third downs by Dare Ogunbowale - another player the team should be attempting to replace with someone better.

Whether it's through free agency or a Day 2 pick in the draft, the Bucs will be in the market for a playmaking back with solid receiving chops to ease the burden on Brady.