Fantasy: Ideal landing spots for top QB, RB free agents
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Free agency is always an exciting time for fantasy owners.
A new home can generate hope that a star player will take their game to even greater heights, that a backup will finally get the volume they deserve, or that a third-stringer will find a coaching staff capable of maximizing their talents. At the same time, a player staying in the perfect situation for another season can sometimes be the best path to production.
While we know that not every free-agent journey will end in triumph, anything is possible a week before the new league year kicks off.
With that in mind, this article isn't setting out to predict where free agents will sign, but instead where they would ideally end up if fantasy value was the most important factor in their decision.
Ideal landing spots
- QB/RB
- WR/TE
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott - Cowboys
Negotiations over a new collective bargaining agreement have pushed the NFL's franchise-tag deadline back and caused delays in a few quarterback contract situations. But make no mistake - there's zero chance the Cowboys will let Prescott walk in free agency. Whether it's a new deal or a tag, Prescott will remain in Dallas, where he's been a fantasy QB1 since entering the league.
Ryan Tannehill - Titans
During his first year in Tennessee, Tannehill set career highs with a 70.3% completion rate (nearly 7% above his career average) and 9.6 yards per attempt (almost 2 full yards above his previous best). Strong chemistry with star rookie receiver A.J. Brown also helped Tannehill post the third-most points among quarterbacks over the final 10 weeks of the fantasy season. With such a small sample size, there's no guarantee Tannehill will replicate those numbers in 2020, but the Titans offer an environment where we know he can succeed.
Jameis Winston - Dolphins
With their defense improving and the running game likely to be addressed this offseason, the Bucs should be in a position to challenge for a playoff spot this year. That's bad news for Winston, a garbage-time king whose stats have thrived on playing catch-up late in games. For a variety of reasons, Winston would benefit from beginning a new chapter outside of Tampa. In Miami, he'd take over a young rebuilding offense stocked with talent at receiver (DeVante Parker, Preston Williams) and tight end (Mike Gesicki). The Dolphins are also loaded with early draft picks and cap space to upgrade elsewhere. Miami is tied for the lowest projected win total in 2020, meaning Winston would have ample opportunities to sling it in comeback mode.
Tom Brady - Chargers
If you're still a believer in Brady's fantasy value, the Chargers are the perfect setting for a resurgence. In Los Angeles, Brady would have his most complete supporting cast in years with the likes of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and potentially Hunter Henry, who's expected to be given the franchise tag. More additions to the offensive line would be required to keep a 43-year-old Brady safe, but the Chargers are a team built to win now on both sides of the ball - they just need a quarterback who won't turn it over 20-plus times a season.
Philip Rivers - Buccaneers
Rivers has been linked to Tampa Bay and Indianapolis, both of which would be excellent landing spots for the 38-year-old. From a fantasy perspective, the Bucs represent the best chance for immediate results given Bruce Arians' history of getting the most out of past-their-prime pivots. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin propelled Winston to a top-five finish in 2019, and though Rivers' days as an elite fantasy option are likely over, the top 10 is still within reach. He also moved his family to Tampa after the season ended, possibly tipping his hand when it comes to his free-agency preference.
Teddy Bridgewater - Colts
Andrew Luck's retirement left Indy vulnerable last year, and the 13th overall pick in the upcoming draft isn't likely to land a franchise quarterback. The 27-year-old Bridgewater might provide the clearest path to a long-term starter. He was the QB12 during his five starts for the Saints in 2019, proving he can deliver solid fantasy production with the right elements around him. The Colts would give Bridgewater a shot to replicate those numbers thanks to one of the league's premier offensive lines, a quality group of skill-position players, and outstanding coaching.
Other options
- Marcus Mariota - Patriots
- Case Keenum - Bears
Running backs
Derrick Henry - Titans
Any team considering Henry would have to understand that he'd be the engine the entire offense must be constructed around. As we've seen in Tennessee, Henry is far less effective when he isn't given a significant amount of carries. However, in each of the past two seasons, the Titans ramped up his workload down the stretch, leading to the utter annihilation of opposing defenses. Henry ran for at least 149 yards six times in his last nine games of 2019, which is evidence that Tennessee is where he belongs.
Melvin Gordon - Texans
It seems unlikely Gordon will ever get the deal he hoped for when holding out at the start of the 2019 season. But things could still work out for the 26-year-old, who will be the top back on the market if Henry gets slapped with the franchise tag. Last year, the Texans showed they are all-in on contending by making moves to surround Deshaun Watson with as much talent as possible. With Carlos Hyde's contract up this offseason, Gordon would be a major upgrade in the backfield. While splitting time with Duke Johnson last year, Hyde was able to total more than 1,100 yards from scrimmage - a feat Gordon accomplished in three straight seasons before his holdout.
Kenyan Drake - Cardinals
In eight games with the Cardinals, Drake was on pace for 1,286 rushing yards, 56 receptions, 342 receiving yards, and 16 touchdowns. Had he maintained that production over a full schedule, those stats would have made him a top-five fantasy back in PPR leagues. There is nothing better for Drake's fantasy outlook than sticking with Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury in an emerging Cardinals offense.
Jordan Howard - Falcons
Devonta Freeman has struggled with injuries and effectiveness over the last couple of seasons, setting the stage for a much-needed replacement to arrive in Atlanta. We recently outlined why Howard is often underrated in the fantasy community, but if he signs with the Falcons, the perception would change quickly. Howard has consistently put up top-20 numbers in fantasy and would get plenty of red-zone opportunities in a high-powered Falcons attack that forces defenses to focus on their outside weapons.
Lamar Miller - Buccaneers
The Buccaneers have long been in search of a playmaker at running back. Ronald Jones showed signs of improvement as a sophomore, but he's far from proven as a lead back. With Peyton Barber heading to free agency, now is the time to invest in someone who can add value with their touches in Tampa. Miller missed the entire 2019 season with a torn ACL, but he'll be a full year removed from the injury when Week 1 comes around. Prior to the season off, Miller amassed more than 1,000 yards from scrimmage in five straight campaigns. If the Bucs' front office is hesitant to use another early pick on a running back, a veteran like Miller could be a lower-risk investment with the potential for a major windfall if he's healthy.
Carlos Hyde - Lions
Though Hyde is coming off his first 1,000-yard rushing campaign, finding another optimal spot like Houston will be tough. Heading into his age-30 season, he could linger on the open market for a while before signing. Due to Kerryon Johnson's injury woes, the Lions have been forced to deploy pedestrian runners like Zach Zenner, Bo Scarbrough, Ty Johnson, and J.D. McKissic at various points over the last two seasons. Hyde could serve in a committee with Kerryon while also providing insurance in the event that another ailment sends the young star to the sidelines.
Other options
- Isaiah Crowell - Dolphins
- DeAndre Washington - Bills
- Chris Thompson - Buccaneers
- Jonathan Williams - Titans
- Peyton Barber - Raiders
Ideal landing spots
- QB/RB
- WR/TE