2020 Heisman Trophy odds: Buy Kyle Trask and this other sleeper
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In hindsight, we should have kept tabs on LSU's Joe Burrow in the preseason Heisman watch last time around.
The quarterback - who just stamped the envelope on a season in which he threw for more than 5,000 yards, won the national title, and, duh, won the Heisman - checked every box before the games began. He was suiting up for a big-time program, was set to win plenty of games, and had all the upside in the world under a new offensive coaching staff.
Let that be a lesson when trying to project a Heisman winner. There are certain factors that must be considered, and using those factors can help us narrow down the potential candidates going forward.
Here is the Heisman odds board for 2020 and some analysis on players I think are too high or too low.
|QB Justin Fields||Ohio State||9-5|
|QB Trevor Lawrence||Clemson||9-2|
|QB Spencer Rattler||Oklahoma||12-1|
|QB D'Eriq King||NA||16-1|
|QB Adrian Martinez||Nebraska||16-1|
|QB Jamie Newman||Georgia||16-1|
|QB Bo Nix||Auburn||20-1|
|QB Kedon Slovis||USC||20-1|
|QB Sam Ehlinger||Texas||20-1|
|QB Myles Brennan||LSU||25-1|
|QB Mac Jones||Alabama||25-1|
|QB Sam Howell||UNC||30-1|
|QB Kellen Mond||Texas A&M||40-1|
|QB Ian Book||Notre Dame||40-1|
|QB Kyle Trask||Florida||50-1|
|QB Bryce Young||Alabama||50-1|
|RB Chuba Hubbard||Oklahoma State||50-1|
|QB K.J. Costello||Stanford||50-1|
|RB Najee Harris||Alabama||50-1|
|RB C.J. Verdell||Oregon||50-1|
|QB Jayden Daniels||Arizona State||50-1|
|WR Jaylen Waddle||Alabama||60-1|
|QB John Rhys Plumlee||Ole Miss||60-1|
|QB Micale Cunningham||Louisville||60-1|
|RB Michael Warren II||Cincinnati||60-1|
|QB Taulia Tagovailoa||Alabama||60-1|
|RB Zamir White||Georgia||60-1|
|QB Davis Mills||Stanford||80-1|
|CB Derek Stingley||LSU||80-1|
|QB Feleipe Franks||NA||80-1|
|WR Ja'Marr Chase||LSU||80-1|
|QB Shawn Robinson||Missouri||80-1|
|QB Spencer Sanders||Oklahoma State||80-1|
|QB Tanner Morgan||Minnesota||80-1|
|WR Tylan Wallace||Oklahoma State||80-1|
|WR Amon-Ra St. Brown||USC||100-1|
|QB Brady White||Memphis||100-1|
|QB Brock Purdy||Iowa State||100-1|
|QB Sean Clifford||Penn State||100-1|
Literally every non-QB
If you have the willpower to submit a Heisman ticket on a non-quarterback, I admire you. But when Chuba Hubbard inevitably rushes for 2,600 yards and 26 touchdowns next year at Oklahoma State and doesn't even earn a ticket to New York, you're going to feel exceptionally dumb for banking on a running back - or any other player who doesn't take snaps - to sway the committee. This is a passing era, and I'd set the over/under at 11.5 years until the next Heisman winner is a non-quarterback.
Myles Brennan (25-1)
The cupboard certainly isn't bare in Baton Rouge. Even with Burrow and wide receiver Justin Jefferson off to the NFL, the LSU offense will feature Brennan -Burrow's heir apparent - throwing to reigning Biletnikoff winner Ja'Marr Chase and fellow wideout Terrace Marshall. But with passing game coordinator Joe Brady leaving for the Carolina Panthers and given the all-around inexperience of Brennan, this number's a tad inflated.
Sam Ehlinger (20-1)
Ehlinger was on the preseason watch list last year at around the same price. However, we found out that the "dual-threat" tag is a bit limited when it comes to the Texas quarterback; there's a difference between taking over a game on the ground and being able to convert short-yardage situations with your legs because you're big. Unfortunately, Ehlinger falls in the latter category. He's also losing his top two receivers from 2019 - Collin Johnson and Devin Duvernay - and frankly, I'm not sure the Longhorns are close to being back.
Jayden Daniels (50-1)
This is ironic because I also think Arizona State's 100-1 price in the futures market is a bit too long. I wouldn't parlay that wager with Daniels as a Heisman candidate, though. Herm Edwards is a run-first head coach who won't put his QB in a position to light up the stat sheet. This situation is a full-on pass.
Kyle Trask (50-1)
Not only do I think there's value on Trask at this price, but I believe he has a legitimate shot to win the award. He threw for close to 3,000 yards with 25 touchdowns in 2019 and didn't even play the full year. Considering the lack of elite talent under center in the SEC, Trask should be able to stand out. Plus, with Florida slowly rising in the conference and at 14-1 odds to earn the title, I don't think the Gators will have trouble winning enough games for Trask to be in the Heisman mix.
Spencer Sanders (80-1)
The only knock here is how much exposure Sanders will get. While the Cowboys play in a Power 5 conference, they don't get the same love as fellow Big 12 programs such as Oklahoma and Texas. Still, this price is absurd for a QB in an offense that's returning virtually every key piece from last season. Sanders' dual-threat abilities give him the type of upside you're looking for, and I'd be buying him at anything better than 50-1.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKoIodziej.