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NFL playoffs: Vikings at 49ers odds, trends, and best bet

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Playoff football returns to San Francisco for the first time since 2012, as Levi's Stadium will host its first-ever postseason game Saturday.

The Minnesota Vikings were clinical in their upset of the New Orleans Saints on Wild Card Weekend and now set their sights on the NFC's top-seeded San Francisco 49ers, who haven't lost a home playoff game since 1997.

Odds

49ers -7, 44.5

San Francisco opened as a touchdown favorite before being bet down to -6.5 by early sharp money. However, once the number dropped, there was significant buyback on the 49ers, which again moved them to touchdown favorites. The total has ticked down to 44.5 from an open of 46 and even moved as low as 44 at some shops.

Betting trends

With their regular-season-finale win over the Seattle Seahawks, the 49ers ensured the NFC playoffs go through Levi's Stadium. Their bye week could prove to be crucial in a possible Super Bowl run, as defensive lineman Dee Ford, linebacker Kwon Alexander, and cornerback Jaquiski Tartt are set to return from injury. Each has been out for at least a month and last shared the field Oct. 31 when the 49ers were 8-0 and allowing just 12.7 points per game.

A run-first team, San Francisco will look to attack the Vikings' defense on the ground. Minnesota's overall numbers against the run are decent, but a deeper look reveals that it allowed a concerning 5.4 yards per carry in three road games against playoff teams. The Vikings allowed at least 144 rushing yards in each of those contests, while the 49ers were 5-1 this season - both against the spread and straight-up - when rushing for at least 140 yards. Their lone loss was a 20-17 defeat at the Baltimore Ravens, while their only ATS loss was a 24-20 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers as 4.5-point favorites.

The key for the Vikings will be to avoid falling behind early. In the Kirk Cousins era, they're 2-7 ATS (2-6-1 SU) on the road in games which they've allowed the first touchdown, with the lone wins coming in Detroit earlier this year and at New Orleans last weekend. This will be especially important against a 49ers team that recorded 29 of its 48 sacks at home this season. An early deficit will force the Vikings to throw the football, allowing the relentless San Francisco pass rush to get after Cousins.

The 49ers are 4-8-1 as home favorites under head coach Kyle Shanahan, including a 3-5 mark this season. The over is 9-4 in those games, including 5-1 in their last six. Meanwhile, under Mike Zimmer, the Vikings are 4-4-1 ATS - but just 1-8 SU - as underdogs of at least a touchdown. However, they haven't found themselves in this spot since Week 4 of last season when they lost 38-31 to the Rams as seven-point 'dogs in Los Angeles on Thursday Night Football.

X-factor

Cousins got the monkey off his back with an impressive performance against the Saints last week, so the attention shifts to Jimmy Garoppolo. The 49ers quarterback is set to make his first playoff start, and the pressure will be on as he leads a team with lofty expectations.

San Francisco will rely on its ground attack and stout defense to take the pressure off of Garoppolo, who simply needs to be responsible and efficient for the 49ers to win. San Francisco was 1-4 ATS this season when Garoppolo turned the ball over two or more times, and 0-4 ATS when he completed fewer than 65% of his passes.

Best bet

49ers -7

San Francisco is getting healthy at the right time and matches up well with a Vikings team that will be playing on a short week after a physically and emotionally draining win in New Orleans. Look for the 49ers to run the football and rely on their suffocating defense to comfortably book a spot in the NFC Championship Game.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

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