NFL Week 14 parlay: BAL/BUF over, Jets, Rams
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Last week's parlay paid out 9-1, and it really ought to have hit. We hit both 'dogs on the moneyline in the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers but scoring simply dried up in Cincinnati after the over was looking like a lock at the half.
Instead, the game stayed under and cost us a generous payout. Such is life.
We'll get it back this week.
BAL/BUF over 43.5
The notion that this is going to be a low-scoring offensive struggle is completely misguided. The Bills are allowing 4.5 yards per rush this season (21st in the NFL) and now get the league's top-ranked rushing offense (5.6 yards per carry). As a whole, the offense is averaging 39.5 points per game on the road this year. Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram, and the Ravens' bullish O-line will move the ball up the field at will.
The Ravens are also giving up 4.5 yards per rush and their 6.6 yards allowed per pass rank in the middle of the pack. It took Buffalo a while, but it's finally starting to make Devin Singletary a focal point of the offense. He's averaging nearly 18 touches per game over the last five weeks, which is a massive step up from the 7.25 he had over his first four games. He's averaging 6.5 yards per touch since becoming the clear feature back, consistently breaking off chunk gains. Raheem Mostert torched the Ravens last week, and Singletary could follow suit.
These offenses are built to attack the opposing defenses, and it really helps to have a pair of mobile quarterbacks to buy time for their receivers against a pair of stingy secondaries. The John Brown revenge game should easily sail over this total.
Jets ML -240 (vs. Dolphins)
To say Sam Darnold excels against bad defenses would be to not tell the whole truth. He excels at home against bad defenses, leading the Jets to 34-27 and 34-3 wins over the New York Giants and Oakland Raiders in their last two home games. Darnold struggles against teams that get after the quarterback well and expose the Jets' putrid pass blocking. The Dolphins are the NFL's most ill-equipped team at rushing the passer, with a league-low 16 sacks so far this season.
As a result, Darnold should have plenty of time to attack the Dolphins' secondary, which ranks 29th this season in yards allowed per pass (7.8) and 23rd in yards per game through the air (256.2). Opponents don't throw much against Miami, as they often hold large leads in the second half. Teams are passing on just 52.76% of plays against the Dolphins, which is the second-lowest percentage in the league. A more accurate representation of Miami's secondary is its DVOA rank: 32nd.
The Jets go as Darnold goes and the red carpet has been laid out for the Jets' signal-caller this week.
Rams -1 (vs. Seahawks)
The Seahawks' good fortune is going to run out at some point. They're 10-2 on the year but have outscored opponents by just a combined 36 points. That's unheard of. Russell Wilson is putting together another MVP-worthy season and Pete Carroll continues to put this team in excellent positions to win games, but their record is very deceiving.
Nothing about Seattle shouts Super Bowl contender. Its defense ranks in the bottom 10 in points allowed, yards allowed, yards per play, and yards per rush. It sits 29th in passing yards allowed per game and 30th in sack percentage. The Seahawks' defense is opportunistic but has largely been riding its luck.
Jared Goff threw for 395 yards in the first meeting between the teams in Seattle, a game that the Rams lost because of Greg Zuerlein's missed last-second field goal. This is a prime revenge spot for Los Angeles, which should be playing desperately as its playoff hopes hanging in the balance. It's also a letdown spot for Seattle after beating the Minnesota Vikings on Monday night. The Rams are averaging 29 points a game this season against defenses that rank outside the top 10 in DVOA (Seattle is 16th) and should stay in rhythm against a Seahawks side susceptible to being gashed through the air.
Full parlay: BAL/BUF over, Jets ML, Rams -1 ($100 to win $425)
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.