NFL Week 14 trend plays: Trust 49ers in NFC clash

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Last week, trendy favorites fell apart against the spread, while the underdog Titans won outright in Indianapolis.

Here are some of the notable trends to watch in Week 14.

(Trends are from Sports Database unless otherwise noted.)

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-3)

The 49ers figure to be popular underdogs when they travel to New Orleans this week, and the trends support it. Since 2017, short road underdogs (three points or fewer) are 67-55-10 ATS (54.9%). When two 10-win squads meet this late in the season, road teams have gone 11-6-2 ATS (64.7%) in the last 30 years. Saints coach Sean Payton is also 15-26-1 ATS (36.7%) as a home favorite since 2014 and 7-11-2 ATS (38.9%) in his career when giving three or fewer.

Trend play: 49ers +3

Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

Tampa Bay is riding a two-game win streak against the number, but that doesn't wipe the stink from its 4-7-1 ATS record (36.4%) this season. Jameis Winston is 5-10 ATS (33.3%) as a home favorite and currently on a 1-5 ATS run, while Colts coach Frank Reich is 7-3-1 ATS (70%) as a road 'dog.

Trend play: Colts +3

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)

The Panthers are in search of a new head coach after canning Ron Rivera this week, but they still might have a coaching advantage over the Falcons. Atlanta's Dan Quinn is 13-20 ATS (39.4%) as a home favorite and 2-6 ATS (25%) when giving three points or fewer. Quinn has done well against Carolina, but he's also just 8-18-2 ATS (30.8%) overall since the start of 2018, inspiring little confidence ahead of Sunday.

Trend play: Panthers +2.5

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-5.5, 44)

Bettors are in for a real treat Sunday when the three-win Dolphins travel to face the four-win Jets. Just don't expect many points: The under is 13-3 (81.2%) since 2014 when two teams with win percentages of 0.33 or worse meet in Week 14 or later. The under is also 5-1 in Adam Gase's last six games as a favorite.

Trend play: Under 44

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.