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Big 12 championship betting preview: Baylor is a dangerous underdog

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The Oklahoma Sooners are hoping to earn a College Football Playoff berth. For that to happen, they'll need to beat the Baylor Bears for the second time this season and get some help.

Baylor can also get into the playoffs with a win, and Georgia and Utah losing. The Sooners beat Baylor 34-31 in the first meeting between the two teams this season, but they failed to cover as an 11-point road favorite. Can the Bears stay within the number again on Saturday?

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup from a betting perspective:

Line movement

The line opened Oklahoma -10, but it's down to 8.5 as of Wednesday with early sharp money backing Baylor.

There's been quite a bit of movement on this game already. The line reached 8.5, then moved back up to Oklahoma -9 shortly thereafter before settling again at 8.5. That typically means different groups of professional bettors are taking a certain team at a particular number. In this matchup, it seems many sharp bettors like Baylor at +9 or higher, while others are buying Oklahoma once the line gets to 8.5. Expect the public to back the Sooners, so the number could rise closer to kickoff unless sharps keep hammering the underdog.

Bettors are expecting another high-scoring game here. The total opened at 61 and moved to 63.5. Sharps could buy back (bet the other side) if that number creeps up to 64 or higher.

Betting trends

Baylor has to be chomping at the bit to get another shot at the Sooners.

The Bears blew a 31-10 halftime lead in a loss that may keep Baylor out of the College Football Playoff. The Bears were outscored 24-0 in the second half and couldn't stop Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts, who finished with 411 total yards and four touchdowns. Baylor did cover despite the implosion, and the school enters Saturday's game 8-4 against the spread (ATS) on the season.

The Bears are a perfect 3-0 ATS as an underdog this campaign, winning two of those games outright over Iowa State and Oklahoma State. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has been a double-digit favorite in all of its 12 games, going 5-7 ATS.

The Sooners have been even less profitable lately, failing to cover four straight games before cashing in during their season finale against Oklahoma State as 14-point favorites. However, Oklahoma is a moneymaker as a single-digit favorite, going 11-2 ATS the last 13 games when favored by fewer than 10 points.

Baylor has enjoyed a tremendous year after winning only six regular-season games in 2018. However, history isn't on the Bears' side in the Big 12 championship game. Teams with a winning percentage of .800 or greater that reach a conference championship after winning six or fewer games the prior season are just 8-14-1 ATS all time.

The X-factor

This is uncharted water for Baylor, while making the Big 12 title game is nothing new for Oklahoma. The Sooners have played in 10 Big 12 championships, going 9-1 straight up and 7-2-1 ATS.

This will be OU's third straight title-game appearance since the program was reinstated in 2017. The Sooners won the previous two by a combined score of 80-44.

Pick

The trends point to an Oklahoma cover, but Baylor is still being a little undervalued.

The Sooners haven't been blowing teams out, and the Bears have been solid in the underdog role. Look for that trend to continue on Saturday in what should be another tightly contested game. Grab Baylor at anything +8 or higher and consider going over if the total stays below 64.

Thomas Casale is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. He's been following the sports betting industry for almost 30 years. A devoted fan of the wishbone offense, Thomas bets on all sports but specializes in college football, NFL, and college basketball. Find him on Twitter @TheTomCasale.

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