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The Indianapolis Colts travel to take on the Houston Texans for a pivotal divisional clash on Thursday Night Football. Here are the best player props for the prime-time tilt.
Jacoby Brissett over 229.5 passing yards
It's tough to trust Brissett to put up huge stats every week. He's surpassed this number just three times in eight starts this season, and those outings were against defenses that are currently ranked No. 24, 25, and 28 in pass defense DVOA. However, although the Colts prefer to keep the ball on the ground and stay away from shootouts, it's clear Brissett can take advantage of favorable matchups.
He threw for a career-high 326 yards with four touchdowns against the Texans earlier this season. Houston's secondary is No. 20 in the NFL in yards per completion allowed at 10.8 and has given up 12.2 over its last three games. I don't think we're in for another 300-yard-plus performance, but I could see the Colts trailing in this one, forcing Brissett to pass against a defense he's already sliced up this year.
Deshaun Watson over 25.5 rushing yards
There's some concern over the minor ankle injury Watson suffered last weekend at Baltimore, but I wouldn't put too much stock into it. He's one of the most electric dual-threat quarterbacks in the league.
Watson's gone over this number in five of his last six games and the Colts haven't been able to contain him. Over four career matchups against Indianapolis, he's rushed for an average of 46 yards per contest.
Duke Johnson over 2.5 receptions
Indianapolis' pass defense doesn't allow many big plays. Overall, it's No. 7 in DVOA, No. 6 in yards per completion allowed, and No. 10 in explosive pass rate. While throwing over the top of the Colts' secondary has been a challenge, Indianapolis is vulnerable in the short-to-intermediate passing game. The Colts have had issues guarding running backs, allowing north of six catches per game to the position this season. While Johnson hasn't hit double-digit carries in a single contest this year, he's played a pivotal role as a pass-catcher, seeing at least four targets in four of his last five games and totaling 24 grabs over that span.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.
