NFL Week 4 trend plays: Packers keep rolling
Each week, we'll highlight the best betting trends and angles. Last week, the favorites laid waste to the overmatched 'dogs, including a massive win by the Vikings at home.
Here are some of the more notable trends to watch for Week 4.
(Trends are from Sports Database unless noted otherwise.)
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -5.5
Sharps are circling Thursday's game given the Eagles' struggles thus far, and the trends agree. In the last 30 years, teams starting the year 0-3 against the spread are 0-6 against the spread against teams that are 3-0 versus the number. Thursday road 'dogs are also 8-22-1 (26.7%) against the spread, including 3-14-1 (17.6%) against the spread in their last 18.
Trend play: Packers -5.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins
Line: Chargers -16, Total: 44.5
The Dolphins' eye-popping underdog trend continues this week with the Chargers giving 16 points on the road. Road favorites of at least 10 points are 9-1 against the spread in their last 10, while the Dolphins are on an 0-6 run against the spread. More impressively, the under is a stunning 25-4 (86.2%) since 2012 in games involving a 10-point road favorite or higher.
Trend plays: Chargers -16, Under 44.5
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Line: Patriots -7
Even against a 3-0 Bills team, the Patriots are still worth a look as road favorites. New England is 5-2 against the spread in its last seven giving at least a touchdown on the road, and it's 34-6 (85%) straight up in that spot in the Bill Belichick era, which is good news for moneyline parlay bettors. Buffalo has also lost four straight against the spread as a home 'dog of seven points or more.
Trend play: Patriots -7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams
Line: Rams -9.5
The Buccaneers showed some life in a Week 2 win but came back to earth with last week's disappointing home loss as sizable chalk. Since 2016, underdogs of seven points or more coming off a straight-up loss are 45-74-2 (37.8%) against the spread. Bucs coach Bruce Arians is 1-3 against the spread in his career when getting 8.5 or more, while Rams coach Sean McVay is 6-2 against the spread when giving at least 8.5 points.
Trend play: Rams -9.5
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.