College football Week 5 trend plays: Michigan's pure fade material
Last week, Iowa State rebounded just fine following a rivalry game, and we saw a team score at will a week after playing Michigan State.
Here are some trends to keep an eye out for in Week 5.
Rutgers at Michigan
Friends don't let friends bet on Michigan. The Wolverines haven't covered a spread since Week 12 of last season ... and it hasn't been close.
| Opponent | Line | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana | -28 | W 31-20 |
| Ohio State | -3.5 | L 62-39 |
| Florida | -4.5 | L 41-15 |
| Middle Tennessee State | -36 | W 40-21 |
| Army | -23.5 | W 24-21 |
| Wisconsin | +3 | L 35-14 |
Throw in the Rutgers game from last season in which Michigan failed to cover as a 36.5-point favorite and the Wolverines are currently on an 0-7 run against the number. Yikes.
Trend play: Rutgers +27.5
Arizona State at Cal
Cal's defense: Very good.
The market is finally catching up, too: Totals we'd see typically in the low 50s have dipped down to the mid-to-low 40s. The Golden Bears' defense has contributed to that, considering they've held 10 of their last 11 opponents to the team total under. Over that span, Cal has allowed a mind-boggling 15.7 points per game. Last week's trend was favorable for Arizona State scoring some points; this week, not so much.
Trend play: Arizona State team total under ~18
Ole Miss at Alabama
Not only does Ole Miss have to play arguably the best team in the country in Week 5, it's also a great time to fade head coach Matt Luke, who's been horrid as an underdog. The Rebels are currently on an 0-7 run ATS in this spot, and are only averaging 15 points per game.
Trend play: Alabama -35.5 and Ole Miss team total under ~13
Mississippi State at Auburn
Auburn still doesn't have a blemish on its straight-up or ATS record, heading into Week 5 at 4-0 in both departments. Saturday's game against Mississippi State puts the Tigers in another profitable situation: Auburn is 7-0 ATS over its last seven games as a favorite and has outscored opponents by an average of 26.2 points per game over that span.
Trend play: Auburn -11
Louisiana Tech at Rice
Perhaps the market's cooled on Rice a little too much. Despite winning just one game outright over their last 10, the Owls have gone 7-2-1 against the spread over that span, all as underdogs. Rice is catching double digits for the ninth time in the previous 10 games come Week 5 and faces a Louisiana Tech team that's been somewhat underwhelming to start the year.
Trend play: Rice +10
Hawaii at Nevada
This is a spot we mentioned in Week 3 pertaining to Hawaii. The Rainbow Warriors were on an 8-0 streak to the over when getting points, and they proceeded to fly past the total as 21-point underdogs to Washington to keep the run alive. Hawaii is in this situation again as a two-point 'dog to Nevada in Week 5.
Trend play: Over 65
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.