These rankings reflect standard scoring formats, taking into account a player's expected production in the following categories: points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, 3-point shots made, field-goal percentage, free-throw percentage, and turnovers.
Stephen Curry finds himself in uncharted waters. Kevin Durant's offseason defection to Brooklyn alone would have been enough to significantly alter the production of the Warriors' franchise player. After the additional twists of Klay Thompson's long-term ACL injury and the team trading for D'Angelo Russell, 2019-20 could be a unique year for Curry.
The best bet? The 31-year-old produces a season resembling his 2015-16 campaign. In that historic Warriors season, he posted league per-game highs in points (30.1), steals (2.1), and free-throw percentage (90.8%), with above-average contributions in assists (6.7), rebounds (5.4), and made threes (5.1) while playing in 79 contests. Don't count on many nights off for Curry this year, as the Dubs will only go as far as he carries them.
Damian Lillard doesn't stand out in any single category, but he's established himself as a picture of consistent greatness. He's missed just 25 games through seven seasons with a high of only nine in 2017-18. Pencil him in for a baseline of 26 points, 6.5 assists, 4.5 rebounds, and three 3-pointers per game this season.
Make no mistake: The Houston Rockets are James Harden's team. It's foolish to expect a fourth straight triple-double season from Russell Westbrook. Instead, Russ' rebounding numbers will come crashing down, while his assists should fall off after last year's career-high (and league-high) rate of 10.7 per game.
However, some of Westbrook's stats could improve. With lower usage overall, a drop in turnovers should offset some of his lost assists. And playing alongside Harden in Mike D'Antoni's free-wheeling offense should lead to a greater volume of open 3-pointers, which could improve Westbrook's made threes and his field-goal percentage.
It will also be interesting to watch how Utah's position-group battle unfolds. There are now two All-Star-caliber guards on the Jazz's roster in holdover Donovan Mitchell and newcomer Mike Conley. It wouldn't be surprising to see both players' shot and assist opportunities fall, even while their scoring efficiencies improve. Still, like Harden in Houston, Mitchell gets the edge between the two because of his tenure.
During his career, Rozier has averaged 15.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.6 assists, and 1.4 steals over his 28 regular-season games with 30-plus minutes of playing time. Those numbers closely resemble his production during Kyrie Irving's absence throughout the Celtics' 2018 playoff run.
|44||Dennis Smith Jr||NYK|
The Knicks' point guard situation is mildly intriguing.
Dennis Smith Jr. put up 14.7 points, 5.4 assists, and 1.3 steals per game after being acquired in the Kristaps Porzingis blockbuster trade last season. He'll face pressure for playing time from Elfrid Payton, whose 7.6 dimes per game with the Pelicans in 2018-19 were of interest to fantasy owners (to say nothing of Frank Ntilikina, who isn't an option in all but the deepest, nerdiest leagues at this point).
Last season, Emmanuel Mudiay showed that David Fizdale's scheme can turn a struggling former lottery pick into a viable fantasy depth option. If either receives a starter's workload, Smith or Payton could wind up being a decent late-round flier.
Honorable mentions: Seth Curry (DAL), Ish Smith (WAS), Isaiah Thomas, WAS), Tyler Johnson (PHO), Monte Morris (DEN), Darius Garland (CLE), Quinn Cook (LAL), Markelle Fultz (ORL)