NFL team total bets for Week 3
Each week of the NFL season, we'll highlight our best bets on projected team totals, which are released closer to kickoff of each respective game. Last week, we went 3-0 thanks to the Bears' and Jets' offensive futility and the Cowboys' fireworks show.
Here are our picks for Week 2:
Pittsburgh Steelers team total under (at San Francisco 49ers)
Play: 18 or higher
Welcome to the NFL, Mason Rudolph. The third-round pick from 2018 saw some action in the second half versus Seattle after Ben Roethlisberger's injury, and now he'll make his first start on the road against a 49ers defense ranked fifth overall by Pro Football Focus and third in coverage.
Rudolph's weapons haven't produced through two games and will face their toughest secondary matchup yet, while James Conner enters the game fighting off a knee injury. With Big Ben, this team ranks 30th in PFF's offense grades. Does Rudolph stand a shot here?
In the last two seasons, road 'dogs that scored fewer than 30 points combined in their previous two games are averaging 18.4 points per game. Most of those have actual NFL starters. Fade Pittsburgh here against an underrated Niners defense.
Los Angeles Chargers team total over (vs. Houston Texans)
Play: 25.5 or lower
So far, Houston's defense has passed the "box score" test. It held the Saints to 30 points in New Orleans, which isn't easy, and it kept the Jaguars at 12 points in last week's narrow win. A deeper dive into the numbers, though, suggests potential trouble against L.A. this week.
The Texans' defense ranks 26th in PFF grades and has allowed 6.4 yards per play, eighth-worst in the NFL. The biggest culprit is the team's shoddy run defense, which ranks 31st in PFF with a league-worst 6.0 yards per carry.
Austin Ekeler should like the sound of that after ripping off 287 yards from scrimmage and four total touchdowns for the Chargers through two weeks. The Texans have allowed 26 points per game under Bill O'Brien when getting at least three on the road. Expect at least that much in this spot.
Cleveland Browns team total under (vs. Los Angeles Rams)
Play: 23 or higher
The Browns finally made a statement a week ago against a hapless Jets team, but the offense scored just 23 points despite an epic game from Odell Beckham Jr. He'll be hard-pressed to find the same success against a Rams defense ranked second in coverage behind New England.
Los Angeles' secondary boasts three Pro Bowlers in Eric Weddle, Marcus Peters, and Aqib Talib, and safety John Johnson could be on his way. Cam Newton struggled mightily in Week 1 versus the Chargers, and Drew Brees had a 44.2 passer rating before leaving last week's game.
Baker Mayfield hasn't looked like the MVP candidate many expected him to be this year, and this isn't likely to be the week that changes. Trust the Rams' defense to take care of business.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.