NFL Week 1 action report: Public on Ravens, Sharps backing Jags
The NFL season is finally here. Week 1 is a little different for bettors and sportsbooks because the lines have been up for three months. Where is the sharp money? Which lines are moving the most? Each week throughout the campaign, we'll track the games drawing the most interest from sharp and public bettors.
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Chiefs -4
As soon as the Week 1 lines were released, we knew this game was going to be the great divide between public and sharp bettors. The line opened Chiefs -5 and is down to -3 at some sportsbooks. As of Saturday morning, theScore Bet in New Jersey had Kansas City -4. The line is dropping despite more bets coming in on the Chiefs, which means the larger wagers are backing the home 'dog in this matchup.
"Jacksonville with a new quarterback is getting quite a bit of play." Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader, said. "You're seeing a little bit of sharp action on the home 'dog."
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is 21-9 against the spread (ATS) on the road in September and the Jaguars are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games.
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins
Line: Ravens -7
Baltimore opened -4.5 and has moved to -7 at many sportsbooks, including theScore Bet. It's one of the few times that sharp money isn't moving the line, but rather the fact that Miami is going into full tank mode by trading away key players for future draft picks. Some books have dropped the number from seven to 6.5, an indication that sharps are betting the Dolphins.
Rood says this is setting up as a classic "pros versus Joes" game.
"We're seeing a little bit of play from the sharps on Miami," Rood said. "That game is ranging anywhere from -6.5 to -7. A lot of places it's come off that -7 but we're still sitting there. The public will be playing the road favorite, but the sharps will be on the home 'dog."
The Ravens are the most popular Week 1 bet with over 80 percent of the wagers, according to Sports Insights. If you are considering fading the public here, remember that Baltimore was the most popular bet in Week 1 last year against the Buffalo Bills and won 47-3.
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
Line: Lions -2.5
Sharps really hit the Lions hard once the lines were released this summer. The game opened as a pick, but that number quickly moved to Detroit -2.5. A couple of books made the Lions a three-point favorite earlier in the week but that didn't last long, as sharp bettors bought back on the Cardinals (betting the other side), trying to middle the game between one and three points.
The Lions are seeing both sharp and public money this week with over 70 percent of the bets backing the short road favorite.
Rood said bets are split evenly on both teams with the Lions a 2.5-point favorite at theScore Bet. He expects bettors to have more interest in the 47.5 total.
"We're a little bit higher on the total than the market," Rood said. "We had some play on the over. I've gotta think that the total will be the thing that's most in play here and the public will go over. The side itself is pretty even for us right now."
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers
Line: Chargers -7
The line for this game throughout the summer was Chargers -3. Then Andrew Luck shocked the world by announcing his retirement, moving the line to seven. Sharp bettors thought the four-point swing was a bit of an overreaction and bet the Colts, moving the line off the key number of seven down to 6.5 at many sportsbooks. However, you can still get Indy +7 at theScore Bet as of early Saturday.
Rood predicts public money will come in heavy on the Chargers with Jacoby Brissett under center.
"The perception is out there that Indianapolis might not be coming into the game with a full arsenal of weapons, but Jacoby will be just fine," he said. "As a bookmaker, I don't have any problem needing Indianapolis +7."
The Colts have been a strong fade in Week 1, going 1-10 ATS in their last 11 openers. Meanwhile, Los Angeles has covered six of its last seven Week 1 games.
Thomas Casale is theScore's Supervising Editor of Sports Betting. He's been following the sports betting industry for almost 30 years. A devoted fan of the wishbone offense, Thomas bets on all sports but specializes in college football, NFL and college basketball. Find him on Twitter @TheTomCasale.