College football Week 1 underdog plays
Betting lofty underdogs is a quick way to pad your bankroll - and a quick way to drain it, too, if you play too many hapless squads.
Fortunately, the first week of the college football season is one of the best times to fade the favorite. Since 2014, home 'dogs are a particularly juicy 38-23 against the spread (62.3%) in Week 1, the only regular-season week in which they're profitable.
Here are our best underdog plays for Week 1 of the college football season:
Liberty (+19) vs. No. 22 Syracuse
Opening line: Liberty +17.5
The Flames won't make many people's lists of breakout candidates this season, but they are among our Week 1 best bets thanks to a profitable early-season trend and a suspect opponent.
Week 1 teams getting more than 18 points at home are 12-6-1 against the spread (66.7%) in the past five seasons, and Week 1 home 'dogs have been generally profitable in four of the last five years. Liberty went 6-6 in 2018 in its FBS debut, and former Ole Miss coach Hugh Freeze now leads a roster returning the 25th-most production from last year.
Syracuse, conversely, lost nearly half its offensive production from 2018, including record-setting quarterback Eric Dungey and three starting offensive linemen. The Orange are positioned to win this one on talent alone, but the gap isn't as wide as oddsmakers perceive it to be.
Pittsburgh (+3) vs. Virginia
Opening line: Pittsburgh +1.5
Pittsburgh and Virginia both finished last season with seven wins in a down year for the ACC Coastal. Both return 64% of their 2018 production, including their starting quarterbacks, and both are missing sizable chunks of their offensive lines and leading tacklers.
So why are the Panthers getting three points at home?
The majority of bets and money have been coming in on the Cavaliers, whom S&P+ ranked higher than Pitt last year, though not substantially so. S&P+ projections now give Virginia a 1.5-point advantage in this one, which is rightfully where the line opened. Anything above that is too much value on Pittsburgh.
Week 1 home 'dogs getting a field goal or less are 6-2 against the spread in the last five years. In a matchup of two teams with similar profiles, bettors aren't giving home-field advantage enough respect, signaling value for those taking the points.
No. 11 Oregon (+4) vs. No. 16 Auburn
Opening line: Oregon +2.5
Sharps have been hitting both sides of this game as the line hovers around the key number of Auburn -3. Anything higher leaves value on the Ducks on a neutral field in Arlington, Texas.
We've already discussed how the Tigers are overvalued in the futures market, with little to justify it outside of a stellar defensive line. Oregon's offensive line, meanwhile, returns 153 combined starts - the most for any FBS team since 2011 - and features three of the top five offensive linemen in Pro Football Focus' top 50 players list.
That outstanding line should give Heisman hopeful Justin Herbert plenty of time to attack the Tigers' inconsistent secondary. Can Auburn's true freshman quarterback Bo Nix match wits with Herbert?
Grab the points here, especially if the line stays on the right side of +3. The Ducks are a better team, so the moneyline - which is as high as +155 - isn't a bad bet, either.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.