2019 NFL MVP betting guide: Tips, players to avoid, bets to consider
Patrick Mahomes went from a 55-1 long shot to win MVP last June to the odds-on favorite midway through December. Not many expected the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback to become the league's next star, but in hindsight, a high-upside gunslinger playing in an Andy Reid offense was a missed opportunity at snagging value.
We're not trying to find the next Mahomes for this year's MVP, as most of the previous award winners were household names. However, finding players whose odds are being undershot is key.
Here are the MVP prices for the upcoming season:
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 6-1 |
| Andrew Luck | 9-1 |
| Drew Brees | 10-1 |
| Tom Brady | 10-1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 12-1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 15-1 |
| Carson Wentz | 16-1 |
| Philip Rivers | 17-1 |
| Russell Wilson | 18-1 |
| Matt Ryan | 26-1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 32-1 |
| Jared Goff | 32-1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 34-1 |
| Deshaun Watson | 34-1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 34-1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 34-1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 40-1 |
| Cam Newton | 40-1 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 40-1 |
| Kirk Cousins | 40-1 |
| Todd Gurley | 40-1 |
| Dak Prescott | 50-1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 50-1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 50-1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 65-1 |
| Melvin Gordon | 65-1 |
| Aaron Donald | 80-1 |
| David Johnson | 80-1 |
| Derrick Henry | 80-1 |
| Jameis Winston | 80-1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 80-1 |
| Nick Foles | 80-1 |
| Sam Darnold | 80-1 |
Notes
- Only three players have won back-to-back MVPs since 1975. Mahomes shouldn't automatically be ruled out based on this, but the media does have a year-by-year fancy for new flavor.
- Quarterbacks have dominated the award. Each of the last six MVPs and 11 of the past 12 have been signal-callers.
- The media takes into account team performance. Since 2000, every MVP winner has been on a team that won double-digit games during the regular season. The average win total for those teams is 12.6.
Players to avoid
Factoring in team success and/or pricing, here are some players that you might want to cross off your list.
Drew Brees (10-1)
Brees narrowly missed out on his first MVP last season to Mahomes. His window to win the award - which included a five-year stretch from 2011-15 in which he posted at least 4,900 yards and 32 touchdowns in each season - has closed. As the Saints become more balanced offensively, Brees' passing yards have declined significantly in each of the previous two years.
Tom Brady (10-1)
Bet against Brady at your own peril. You can chalk the 41-year-old future Hall of Famer up for another year with 4,000-some passing yards and his fair share of touchdowns. However, he's not as attractive as he was in years past. Our own fantasy football expert Justin Boone discussed why you should be bearish about buying Brady in 2019.
Russell Wilson (18-1)
Can the Seattle Seahawks win enough games for Wilson to get the media's attention? There aren't many that can do more with less, but Wilson doesn't have the supporting cast this season to pull it off.
Christian McCaffrey (34-1)
McCaffrey took on a bigger load last season, becoming the Carolina Panthers' lead back after splitting time as a rookie. He'll stuff the stat sheet, but it's probably wise to avoid most, if not all, running backs. The fair price here is 50-1 or longer.
Jimmy Garoppolo (40-1)
The San Francisco 49ers should be improved and Garoppolo will be the centerpiece of a potential surge. However, the Niners winning enough games is a tall enough task as is. That and the fact that Garoppolo is a conservative signal-caller makes him less intriguing than he appears at 40-1. Comeback Player of the Year? Sure. MVP? No chance.
Players to consider
Baker Mayfield (15-1)
The Cleveland Browns are the league's newest darling, but we assure you this has nothing to do with jumping on the bandwagon. Mayfield excelled in his first season at the NFL level and has one of the top receiving corps in the league this year after the addition of Odell Beckham Jr. The Browns also hired offensive coordinator Todd Monken, who led the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the league's third-ranked offense last season despite flip-flopping between Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Ten-plus wins might be a stretch, but the Browns will warrant enough attention to get Mayfield in the mix.
Matt Ryan (26-1)
The Atlanta Falcons made a brilliant move by naming Dirk Koetter as their new offensive coordinator. Expect him to give Matt Ryan plenty of chances to pad his stats, as the quarterback's three highest passing attempt totals in his career came during Koetter's previous stint in Atlanta from 2012-14.
Jared Goff (32-1)
This is solid value on a player in a quarterback-friendly system and on a team that should win plenty. Goff had his coming-out party in 2018 after a trying rookie season, racking up 4,688 yards and 32 touchdowns for the Super Bowl runner-ups.
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.