Fantasy: 7 buy-low targets in dynasty
The success of your dynasty team is directly linked to how early you can accurately assess talent.
Identifying an aging player who still has plenty left in the tank can be just as valuable as acquiring a young star before their breakout. The same can be said for knowing the right time to cut ties with a prospect who isn't going to reach their originally anticipated apex or a veteran star who's approaching a production cliff.
Before free agency and the draft shake up the fantasy landscape, let’s look at seven players who can help give your dynasty team an edge if you buy low on them now.
Nick Chubb
The public perception of a player or their situation can often create a discount in fantasy. On that note, let’s get one thing out of the way: Cleveland signing Kareem Hunt doesn't change Chubb's status as the lead back.
Despite immediate concerns about what Hunt's arrival meant for Chubb's value, the Browns aren't going to bench the emerging star they selected early in the second round a year ago in favor of the disgraced former Chief who's facing a lengthy suspension.
Chubb put up at least 90 yards from scrimmage five times in the second half of the season when new head coach Freddie Kitchens took over the offense, scoring seven touchdowns and finishing with the sixth-most fantasy points among running backs during that span. The rookie also posted the highest yards-after-contact average in the last 12 years, according to Graham Barfield of NFL.com.
Can Hunt still have fantasy value in 2019? Absolutely. However, it would require an injury to Chubb that causes him to miss time later in the year when Hunt is finally available. By then, Chubb will have solidified himself as an RB1 and Hunt will be a fantasy handcuff, unless the Browns find a trade partner for their overqualified backup.
Testing the trade waters to see if the Chubb owner is concerned about Hunt's presence should be a mandatory move for dynasty leaguers.
Hunter Henry
Henry's rise was interrupted last offseason by a torn ACL that was supposed to end his year. He surprisingly took the field in the playoffs but played just 14 snaps in the divisional round.
While 2018 was a lost campaign, the 24-year-old's future is still among the brightest at his position. He put up 50 yards and/or a touchdown in 17 of his 29 career regular-season appearances and finished eighth in PPR fantasy points per game at his position in 2017.
If it wasn't for his injury, Henry would already be viewed as a top-five tight end in fantasy - but in startups, he's currently going off the board as the TE8, according to the ADP data at DynastyLeagueFootball.com.
With receiver Tyrell Williams expected to depart in free agency and Antonio Gates no longer a factor, Henry's target share should be secure. Henry owners were forced to find another fantasy option this season, so they might be willing to part with the Charger, especially since his end-of-year numbers were restricted by injury.
Carson Wentz
For a quarterback one season removed from playing at an MVP pace, the negative sentiments that have surrounded Wentz in recent months are shocking.
Wentz admitted he wasn't perfect after a report attributed locker-room tension and problems on offense to the 26-year-old, though many Eagles teammates and staff came to his defense.
Some people also believe the team performed better with Nick Foles under center, pointing to Philly's strange ability to rally around the backup when Wentz was injured. Head coach Doug Pederson cleared this up after the season by declaring that Wentz is the starter, and his place will be further solidified when Foles finds a new club in the offseason.
And for all the bad press, Wentz's performance didn't suffer as much in 2018 as it may seem. Coming back from ACL and LCL tears, he set career highs in passing yards per game and completion percentage while throwing for multiple touchdowns in eight of his 11 outings. The main difference was a lack of rushing yards, which fell from 23 per game in 2017 to an average of 8.5.
Another year removed from the knee injury, his rushing totals should bounce back. That gives Wentz top-three upside, especially if the Eagles bring in help at receiver and running back - and with Golden Tate and Jay Ajayi preparing for free agency, that seems likely.
Marvin Jones
Investing in the Lions' passing attack seems dangerous considering they showed their cards as a team that wants to run the ball more under Matt Patricia. That's good news for Kerryon Johnson and the backfield, but less than ideal for Matt Stafford and the receiving corps - even with the depth chart thinning out after Tate's midseason departure.
And yet, Marvin Jones remains intriguing as a consistently undervalued player overshadowed by an emerging star in Kenny Golladay.
Before being placed on injured reserve following Week 10, Jones was a top-27 fantasy receiver, with 50 yards and/or a touchdown in eight of his nine games. He has excellent route-running ability and outstanding ball skills, especially around the end zone, which put him on pace for his second straight nine-score season prior to the knee injury.
With him ending the season on the sidelines, the Lions' passing game coming off a disappointing year, and Golladay stealing the spotlight, three different coupon codes are reducing Jones' price.
Dalvin Cook
The Vikings shifted to a more run-heavy approach as the 2018 season progressed and a healthy Cook saw at least 19 touches in four straight games during December. The results were 80 yards from scrimmage in every contest as we caught a glimpse of the future in Minnesota.
Gary Kubiak's joined the staff to work with offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski and is believed to be implementing a zone-blocking scheme to bolster the ground game. Kubiak's resume as an offensive mind is studded with strong rushing attacks, dating back to his time with Broncos in the early 2000s.
Most recently, he found success as the Baltimore Ravens' OC in 2014. The unit ranked eighth in rushing yards and seventh in rushing touchdowns with Justin Forsett as lead back - a limited player who saw 235 carries for 1,266 yards and 44 receptions for 263 yards, with eight combined scores.
Cook is more talented and can thrive as the centerpiece of an offense. With Kubiak's tutelage and a few upgrades on the Vikings' offensive line, Cook's got RB1 potential in fantasy, even though he has yet to prove it over a full season.
Royce Freeman
For a minute, it seemed like Kubiak was headed back to Denver, which would have been great news for Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. Rich Scangarello got the nod instead, but he's expected to implement the same sort of run-based, zone-blocking system after working for Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco.
Following his breakout season as an undrafted free agent, Lindsay will enter his second campaign as the lead back (assuming his recovery from offseason wrist surgery goes according to plan). However, he's likely to miss OTAs, which means missing valuable practices where the new coaching staff will install its playbook.
Freeman, a third-round pick last year, will have a chance to impress during that time. His north-south running style should translate better with the Broncos leaning on a zone scheme, rather than deploying him in a bowling-ball role like the previous regime.
Head coach Vic Fangio spoke highly of both Freeman and Lindsay at the scouting combine, telling 104.3 The Fan's Cecil Lammey that "there's more than enough work for more than one running back" in Denver's offense. The odds of Freeman supplanting Lindsay aren't good, but his touches and effectiveness should increase, making him another worthy target in dynasty.
Jimmy Garoppolo
Garoppolo is another unproven talent who will finally get his opportunity to carry an offense in 2019 - a year later than expected after a torn ACL sidelined him early last season.
Since Garoppolo wasn't much of a rushing quarterback to begin with, we don't need to worry about the injury having a significant impact on his stats. He also returns to a team with more skill and depth in the form of George Kittle, Dante Pettis, and Marquise Goodwin, plus a pair of backs capable of doing damage as pass-catchers in Jerick McKinnon and Matt Breida.
However, the biggest reason to make an immediate play for Jimmy G is the relentless chatter connecting the 49ers to Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham Jr. Shanahan recently denied the reports, but it makes sense for San Francisco to add another playmaker after declining veteran Pierre Garcon's option. Whether they land a big name or address their receiver depth chart via free agency or the draft, the quarterback will be set up with a complete arsenal.
Get your offers for Garoppolo in before the 49ers make headlines by acquiring that next piece.