Fantasy: Takeaways from Saturday's preseason games
Get ready for your season with theScore's 2018 Fantasy Football Draft Kit.
Every game night during the preseason, theScore's Justin Boone gets you caught up on the most important fantasy performances from around the league.
Tyreek, Mahomes dominate preseason
It's easy to make a case that Tyreek Hill's 2017 production is unsustainable given his reliance on big plays. But from what we've seen in the preseason, it appears Hill will be getting more touches playing in the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs' offense.
And the big plays, they aren't going anywhere.
TyFREAK vs. Bears backups isn't fair pic.twitter.com/bvAK6pUS9H
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) August 25, 2018
Hill put up 88 yards on eight catches on Saturday, including the 28-yard shovel pass above, bringing his August totals to 14 receptions, 182 yards, and a score in limited action over three preseason games.
Outside of a couple errant throws, Mahomes has been equally impressive during that stretch, completing 31-of-43 attempts for 367 yards, with two touchdowns and an interception. He also rushed four times for 37 yards.
Mahomes is my favorite breakout candidate at quarterback, which I recently discussed in the QB draft strategy episode of theScore's Fantasy Football Podcast. He's currently the QB14 in my rankings, but I'll strongly consider moving him into the low-end QB1 range in my next update that comes out Monday.
Concerns about Sammy Watkins stealing targets from Hill were overblown. Watkins caught one pass during the preseason. With those doubts behind us, Hill is a borderline WR1, offering week-winning potential few pass-catchers possess. He's a solid pick in the third round, especially if you're slotting him in as the second receiver in your starting lineup.
Jags' Lee carted off
Overall, it seems like there have fewer significant injuries during this preseason than in year's past. Perhaps we can thank the handful of coaches who decided to hold their starters out of exhibition play. After Saturday's game, Doug Marrone might be wishing he was among them.
The Jaguars had to watch as their top receiver Marqise Lee was carted off in the first quarter with what appeared to be a serious knee injury. We'll have to wait on an official diagnosis, but if you're drafting this weekend, I would remove Lee from my draft board entirely.
Speedster Keelan Cole, who was already starting opposite Lee, is now in an even better position to lead the Jags in receiving yards for a second straight year. Entering Saturday night, the sophomore was going undrafted in most leagues. He'll still be catching passes from Blake Bortles, but Cole has WR3 upside if he can capitalize on the situation.
Donte Moncrief will see his playing time increase the most if Lee is sidelined. The free-agent addition had faded during training camp and the preseason, but was immediately thrust into a starting role when Lee left the game. Moncrief hauled in three passes for 62 yards. Known for being a consistent red-zone threat during his time with Colts, he's worth a flier in the late rounds.
Dede Westbrook is a dazzling playmaker who flashed in a few outings in the second half of his debut campaign. This injury will certainly open the door, giving him deep-sleeper potential. Just don't expect consistent production.
In the meantime, Jacksonville's offense will continue to be powered by the run. Leonard Fournette racked up 75 yards on 13 touches, with his highlight coming in the form of a 21-yard touchdown made possible by a beautiful cutback. Fournette should never escape the first round of fantasy drafts.
The Jaguars' offense has one of the easiest fantasy strength of schedules of any team, making everyone mentioned in this section slightly more intriguing.
Morris shines for 49ers
One night after 33-year-old Adrian Peterson looked like a much younger version of himself during his debut with the Redskins, Alfred Morris decided to follow AP's lead and shock us by breaking multiple big runs with the 49ers first-team offense.
Morris turned his 17 carries into 84 yards, and could have had even more if penalties didn't negate a pair of other long runs.
Alfred Morris ran hard all game -- 17 carries, 84 yards, 4.9 YPC
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) August 25, 2018
49ers backfield is very banged up and far from set in stone pic.twitter.com/xNQWfQ7tlC
The real takeaway here might be that the 49ers' offensive line is better than we thought, since they were opening massive running lanes for their new ball carrier. It's also possible the Colts' defense is once again a unit to target for fantasy purposes.
With Jerick McKinnon and Matt Breida sidelined with injuries, this was about as good a performance as Morris could have delivered. Factoring in his history with Kyle Shanahan from their time together in Washington, it's now likely Morris cracks the regular season roster.
If McKinnon or Breida are unable to suit up for Week 1, we may be talking about Morris as a top-20 fantasy starter for however long they're out. In deeper leagues, keep him in mind at the end of your drafts.
Instant Impressions
- Sometimes, fantasy owners (and analysts) can talk ourselves out of an obvious outlook. That might be what's happening with Kenyan Drake. On Saturday, the Dolphins' RB exploded for a 30-yard run and later came down with a 36-yard deep ball from Ryan Tannehill. Over the second half of the 2017 season, Drake was the RB9 in standard leagues and the RB7 in PPR. The addition of Frank Gore is worrisome, but the 35-year-old is on his last legs as an NFL rusher. Even Gore has talked up his young teammate's skill set. I'm viewing Drake as a value pick in the fourth round.
- Pierre Garcon's draft stock has declined considerably with reports of Marquise Goodwin emerging as Jimmy Garoppolo's favorite target. This week, the veteran reminded everyone what he's capable of with a 47-yard strike down the middle of the field, ending the game with two receptions for 62 yards. With Goodwin's ADP catapulted into the fifth round, I'd much rather invest in Garcon in the ninth.
The backfield battle between Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry continues, with a timeshare all but guaranteed. Lewis has a distinct advantage as a receiver, which played out in Saturday's game when he saw six total touches for 31 yards, including three receptions. Henry was held to 12 yards on five carries. My chips remain on Lewis, the more dynamic of the duo.
If you listened to the TE draft strategy episode of our podcast, you'd know I made a bold prediction suggesting Eric Ebron will step up as the Colts' second receiving weapon, leading the team in touchdowns and posting top-five fantasy numbers. It's still the preseason, but his five-catch, 54-yard, one-touchdown performance on Saturday makes my prediction a little less insane. Even though the upside is there, I'm not advocating drafting Ebron as anything more than a lottery ticket in fantasy.
Ben Roethlisberger is in mid-season form. Big Ben is surrounded by one of the best supporting casts in the league, and the change at offensive coordinator has resulted in a plan to go no-huddle more often, which provides increased opportunity for production. Over the final seven games of 2017, Roethlisberger averaged 23.6 fantasy points per game, the most of any quarterback. If you wait at the position, Roethlisberger, Matthew Stafford, or Mahomes are perfect targets in the 10th or 11th round.
While we’re on the topic of the Steelers, if anything were to happen to Le’Veon Bell, their backfield is in much better shape this year. James Conner continues to develop. He’s made huge strides as a receiver, evidenced by his team-leading six catches for 52 yards against the Titans. Rookie Jaylen Samuels also showed he’s able to handle a heavy workload with 15 touches for 77 yards in the game. Samuels had an excellent catch-and-run where he fooled a defender before bouncing outside en route to the pylon, but it was called back on a holding penalty. Conner would be the backup to own in Pittsburgh. Samuels is an interesting deep sleeper due to his tight end eligibility in many leagues.
Conner and Samuels were only a few of the backup RBs making noise Saturday. John Kelly (15 carries, 64 yards, 2 TDs) has league-winning upside if Todd Gurley gets hurt in 2018. Austin Ekeler (9 touches, 63 yards) will be dangerous for the Chargers, and someone fantasy owners will need to stash on their benches. Corey Grant (10 touches, 71 yards) is a Fournette injury away from being a quality fantasy starter.