Skip to content

Key games with big star power bringing out the bettors for NFL Week 15

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Covers.com is the biggest and best source for sports betting information, providing unrivaled and original content sports bettors cannot live without.

The NFL’s Week 15 Sunday slate brings the much-anticipated return of one of the league’s best quarterbacks, in a key clash with playoff implications for both teams. Covers checks in on action for that contest and a few other key games, with insights from Scott Shelton, sportsbook supervisor at The Mirage on the Las Vegas Strip, and Will Bernanke, lead analyst for CG Analytics, also in Las Vegas.

Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers – Open: -3; Move: None

Green Bay has won two in a row SU and three in a row ATS, climbing back into the postseason chase in the process, and now Aaron Rodgers returns from a broken collarbone for this 1 p.m. ET kickoff. The Packers (7-6 SU and ATS) needed overtime each of the past two weeks against struggling teams, but got the job done, beating Tampa Bay 26-20 as a 3-point home chalk and winless Cleveland 27-21 laying 2.5 points on the road.

Carolina (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) is 5-1 SU and ATS the past six weeks and is tied with New Orleans atop the NFC South. The Panthers bounced back from that lone loss – at the Saints – by cooling off red-hot Minnesota in Week 14, 31-24 as a 2.5-point home underdog.

“Believe it or not, it’s real balanced at the counter and on the mobile app,” Shelton said of action at The Mirage and other MGM Resorts sportsbooks. “It’s pretty even ticket count, too. That line is pretty solid.”

MGM Resorts sportsbooks, including The Mirage, opened Carolina -3 but didn’t post this game until Wednesday, after Rodgers’ status was certain. CG opened Carolina -3 on Tuesday, saw it spike to 5, then adjusted for Rodgers’ return by moving back to -3.

“Three times more Carolina money on account, and 80 percent of over-the-counter money is also on Carolina,” Bernanke said. “Sharps and public are backing Carolina.”

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers – Open: +3; Move: +2.5; Move: +3; Move: +2.5

Defending Super Bowl champion New England comes into this 4:25 p.m. ET showdown needing a win to get back in position for home field throughout the playoffs. That’s because the Patriots (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS) fell flat at Miami in the Week 14 Monday nighter, losing 27-20 as a healthy 10.5-point chalk, which ended their runs of 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS.

Pittsburgh (11-2 SU, 6-7 ATS) was the direct beneficiary of New England’s upset loss, taking sole position of first place in the AFC after surviving an upset bid. The Steelers, laying 6 points at home to Baltimore, gave away an early 14-0 lead, falling behind 31-20 in the third quarter. But Ben Roethlisberger and Co. rallied for a 39-38 victory, winning on a last-minute field goal for their eighth consecutive victory (4-4 ATS).

Bernanke said this matchup is shaping up as a Pros vs. Joes game.

“Five times more Steelers money on account, and three times more Pats money over the counter,” Bernanke said. “Sharps are backing the Steelers, and the public is backing the Pats.”

MGM books opened New England -3 and stayed there all week, with only the juice fluctuating, starting at the flat -110 and flipping to +105 by late Saturday night. That put the Steelers at +3 (-125).

“We’re gonna need the Patriots right now,” Shelton said. “It’s one of the most-ticketed games, almost dead-even ticket count, but the money’s on the Steelers.”

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks – Open: Pick; Move: -1; Move: -1.5; Move: -2; Move: -2.5; Move: -1.5; Move: -1

Nobody expected Los Angeles to be alone at the top of the NFC West in mid-December, but that is indeed the case, despite blowing a golden opportunity in Week 14. The Rams (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) knocked Philadelphia quarterback Carson Wentz out of the game – and out for the season – late in the third quarter, but still tumbled at home 43-35 as a 1-point fave.

Seattle stubbed its toe in Week 14 as well. The Seahawks (8-5 SU, 5-7-1 ATS) fell behind 27-10 at Jacksonville five minutes into the fourth quarter, and their rally fell short in a 30-24 loss as a 3-point pup.

“Seventy-five percent of over-the-counter money is on Seattle. The public is backing the Seahawks,” Bernanke said, while noting account pointspread wagering was split on these NFC West rivals.

MGM books opened Seattle -1 and got to 2.5 by midweek, but by Saturday evening, the line was back to the opener of 1 for this 4:05 p.m. ET start. Much like CG books, even though the line has dropped, MGM books are heavy to Seattle.

“That’s a big decision for us. It’s really one-sided in favor of the Seahawks,” Shelton said. “Straight-bet money is almost all on Seattle, but parlay money is on the Rams. That would tell you sharps are on the Seahawks, and the public is on the Rams.”

Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings – Open: -10.5; Move: -11

Minnesota looks to get back on track after having its eight-game SU and seven-game ATS streaks halted in Week 14. The Vikings (10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS) lost at Carolina 31-24 as a 2.5-point road chalk.

Cincinnati’s subpar season might have reached its lowest point last week. The Bengals (5-8 SU, 7-6 ATS) got torched on their home field by an even worse Chicago outfit, tumbling 33-7 as a 6-point favorite.

“We’re completely one-sided on this game,” Shelton said. “Pointspread ticket count is 3/1 on the Vikings, and money is 15/1 on the Vikings. That’s gonna be a big need of ours, on Cincy.”

Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.

Daily Newsletter

Get the latest trending sports news daily in your inbox