Sharp betting action causing plenty of line movement for Week 6
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A team with preseason expectations of contending for a Super Bowl bid meets the NFL’s lone remaining undefeated team to highlight Week 6 Sunday. Covers checks in on the action with Will Bernanke, lead analyst for CG Analytics in Las Vegas, and Mike Jerome, lines manager for offshore sportsbook TopBet.eu.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -3; Move: -3.5; Move: -4; Move: -4.5; Move: -6; Move: -5; Move: -4.5; Move: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -4
Kansas City is making believers of bettors both sharp and square, with its 5-0 SU and ATS record this season. Alex Smith and the Chiefs went to Houston as 2-point favorites in Week 5 and left with a 42-34 victory.
Pittsburgh hasn’t looked the role of a Super Bowl contender thus far, and that was especially apparent last week. The Steelers (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) lost to Jacksonville 30-9 as a 7.5-point home chalk.
“The sharps and public (were) absolutely running to the windows to back Kansas City,” Bernanke said of early activity at CG Technology books, including shops at The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Strip. “What a difference one week can make. Pittsburgh looking terrible last week at home against Jacksonville. It looks like everybody’s soured on them.”
The line surged from 4.5 to 6 for just a few minutes Thursday morning. However, once that line got to 6, Bernanke said sharps began buying back on the Steelers, helping push that line down to 3.5 by Saturday night, before it ticked back up to 4. Kickoff is at 4:25 p.m. ET.
Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons – Open: -10.5; Move: -11; Move: -11.5; Move: -12; Move: -12.5
Defending NFC champion Atlanta returns from a bye week, following its first loss of the season. The Falcons (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) stubbed their toe at home in Week 4, tumbling to Buffalo 23-17 as an 8-point fave.
Miami (2-2 SU and ATS) is coming off a win, but bettors clearly aren’t convinced. The Dolphins beat visiting Tennessee 16-10 in a pick ‘em game in Week 5.
“Miami's offense has been offensive to watch nearly all season. Dolphins fans were yelling, ‘We Want Moore,’ as in Matt Moore,” instead of Jay Cutler, Jerome said.
TopBet.eu saw sharp action on Atlanta to move the line from 10.5 to 11.5 Tuesday, and further Falcons play pushed it to 12.5 on Thursday.
“Sixty-eight percent of cash and 65 percent of bets are on the Falcons,” Jerome said of action for this 1 p.m. ET matchup.
New England Patriots at New York Jets – Open: -9.5; Move: None
New England hasn’t really looked like the defending Super Bowl champion, but could still find itself atop the AFC East by day’s end. The Patriots (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) held off Tampa Bay 19-14 as a 3.5-point chalk in the Week 5 Thursday nighter, so they come in with a little more rest.
New York was supposed to be a hound’s breakfast this year, yet has won three in a row on the field and at the betting window to stand 3-2 SU and ATS. Last week, the Jets edged Cleveland 17-14 as a 1.5-point road favorite.
“I didn’t think this would be a very interesting game a few weeks ago,” Bernanke said of this 1 p.m. ET contest. “Right now, the line is 9.5 and holding. No one’s really shown their hand in this game. A little bit of sharp money on the Jets, nothing to write home about. The public of course is on New England, but again, they’re not too sure.
“Tom Brady’s (non-throwing) shoulder – you know how the Patriots are with their injury reports. It’s always hush-hush. And people aren’t sold on the Jets yet, either.”
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints – Open: -3.5; Move: -4; Move: -4.5; Move: -5; Move: -5.5; Move: -5; Move: -4.5; Move: -4; Move: -4.5
New Orleans, coming off a bye week, will look to stretch its win streak to three games. The Saints (2-2 SU and ATS) blanked Miami 20-0 laying 4 points on the road in Week 4.
Detroit (3-2 SU and ATS) has been in every game this season, with its two losses by a combined seven points. That includes last week’s setback to Carolina, with the Lions losing 27-24 giving 2 points at home.
“Eight times more money is coming in on New Orleans on account,” Bernanke said of activity through Thursday. “So the sharp bettors were all over New Orleans. But the public will gladly take the 5 points with Detroit. This is shaping up to be a real Pros vs. Joes game.”
In fact, the Joes helped reel this line back down to 4 on Friday, before it ticked back up to 4.5 Saturday for this 1 p.m. ET meeting.
TopBet.eu also opened New Orleans -3.5 and saw sharp action help move the number to 6 before it slid back to 4.5.
“This seems to be a matchup of two teams trending in different directions,” Jerome said. “Now having traded Adrian Peterson to Arizona, the Saints are in a much better place offensively. Running back Alvin Kamara is a perfect fit for a Sean Payton offense, as he is such a skilled receiver as well.
“Tough injury news this week for Detroit, as defensive lineman Haloti Ngata was placed on the IR on Thursday, and Matt Stafford isn’t 100 percent, listed as probable with a leg issue.”
New York Giants at Denver Broncos – Open: -10; Move: -10.5; Move: -11; Move: -11.5; Move: -12; Move: -11.5
New York doesn’t have a win this season, and it’s running out of receivers, too. Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall both suffered season-ending ankle injuries against the Los Angeles Chargers, and fellow wideouts Sterling Shepard (ankle) and Dwayne Harris (broken foot) were also hurt in that game.
Perhaps not surprisingly, the Giants (0-5 SU, 2-3 ATS) lost 27-22 giving 3 points at home.
Denver (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS) is coming off its bye week, following a 16-10 victory over Oakland as a 3.5-point home chalk. So the Broncos are well-rested heading into this Sunday nighter, with kickoff at 8:30 ET.
“To say the Giants are an absolute mess may be an understatement,” Jerome said. “Four of their top five wide receivers are now out due to injuries. It’s gonna be ugly to see how the Giants are able to move the ball against one of the top defenses. Two other injuries to keep eye on defensively for New York are Landon Collins (ankle) and Olivier Vernon (ankle). If neither are able to play, I can see the line closing as high as -13 when it kicks.”
Jerome said TopBet saw sharp action on Denver early in the week, and by Friday, 79 percent of money and 84 percent of tickets written were on the Broncos.
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans – Open: -10.5; Move: -10; Move: -9.5; Move: -9
Rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson is turning some heads in Houston and will need to keep doing so, now that star defensive end J.J. Watt (leg fracture) is done for the season. The Texans (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) lost to Kansas City 42-34 last week as a 2-point home ‘dog, and also lost linebacker Whitney Mercilus (torn pectoral muscle) for the season, along with Watt.
Cleveland, on the other hand, is benching rookie QB DeShone Kizer in favor of Kevin Hogan. The winless Browns (0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS) lost to the New York Jets 17-14 catching 1.5 points in Week 5.
“The Cleveland Browns are getting three times more money on account. So sharps are on the Cleveland Browns,” Bernanke said of action on this 1 p.m. ET start. “The public is kind of split in this game. They’re still not sold on Deshaun Watson laying double-digit points. I know he’s played really well, and I can’t blame (the public) for being a little gun-shy when he’s been catching points every game and now he’s in a different league where he’s laying 9.5-10 points.
“And the Browns switching their quarterbacks, I know this team seems hopeless, but they can’t be any worse.”