Projecting Ryan Johansen's next contract
By advancing all the way to the Stanley Cup Final, and subsequently dishing out numerous team-friendly contracts in the evaluation period that followed, the Nashville Predators have firmly staked their claim as a perennial threat in the Western Conference.
Since seeing their captivating playoff run end two wins shy of the ultimate prize in June, general manager David Poile has brought in Nick Bonino and Scott Hartnell to solidify his forward corps, and handed out new contracts to five restricted free agents, most notably Viktor Arvidsson and Austin Watson.
However, one roster player remains without a contract for 2017-18, and it's a big one - Ryan Johansen.
Below, we dive into what the star center might earn as he awaits a new deal.
His background
Johansen is coming off his first full year with the Predators, a successful campaign in which he proved his worth by finishing the season tied for the team lead with 61 points. He carried his success into the playoffs with 13 points in 14 games, but was stunningly shut down after emergency thigh surgery.
On July 31, Johansen will turn 25 years old, and the end of the 2016-17 campaign signaled the conclusion of his three-year, $12-million extension signed in 2014, then with the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Johansen infamously held out before signing said deal, and his rocky relationship with the club that drafted him fourth overall in 2010 ended with a trade to Nashville in exchange for defenseman Seth Jones last January. However, after fitting in nicely atop the Predators' center depth chart, it's unlikely any similar problems emerge as Johansen and Poile work to reach an agreement.
Comparables from around league
(Photo courtesy: Getty Images)
After playing out his bridge deal, Johansen should be reasonably inclined to expect a long-term contract, and here are some comparable pacts recently signed by forwards across the NHL.
| Player (Position) | Team | Age | Length | AAV | Career P/PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evgeny Kuznetsov (C) | Capitals | 25 | 8 years | $7.8M | 0.69 |
| Sean Monahan (C) | Flames | 21 | 7 years | $6.375M | 0.68 |
| Mark Scheifele (C) | Jets | 23 | 8 years | $6.125M | 0.74 |
| Aleksander Barkov (C) | Panthers | 20 | 6 years | $5.9M | 0.67 |
| Filip Forsberg (C/RW) | Predators | 21 | 6 years | $6M | 0.72 |
(Contract information courtesy: CapFriendly)
Through 433 career games, Johansen's per-game production rate sits at 0.66. Last season, he owned a remarkable Corsi-For percentage of 55.9 percent in the regular season, and further boosted his value by winning 54.6 percent of his faceoffs.
Poile's magic, and a verdict
That Poile has managed to keep just over $13 million in cap space with only Johansen left to sign is wizardry in itself, and there's no reason to believe the veteran executive won't strike a deal that doesn't greatly benefit the future of his club.
Somehow, Nashville's core of Arvidsson, Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm, and Ryan Ellis combine for only $20.5 million in annual salary, and Poile's knack for locking down his players at reasonable rates before they hit their peaks has paid great dividends in affording the financial flexibility to build a championship-worthy roster.
For years, Nashville's missing ingredient was a top-line center, and now the club has a chance to secure a young, prospering two-way pivot in Johansen. With P.K. Subban raking in $9 million per season, Johansen surely won't leave his negotiations as the Predators' highest-paid skater, but he's well in line to earn second spot on the list, ahead of Filip Forsberg's forward-leading $6 million.
In his contract year, Johansen adequately demonstrated his importance to the Predators, and his absence in the postseason left a glaring, perhaps insurmountable hole in the lineup. Now, it's time to pay him, and a deal, let's say, for seven years and $7 million annually, fits more than comfortably in Nashville's books, and is cost-comparable to several of Johansen's peers across the league.
Now we wait.