Sage Rosenfels column: 9 active quarterbacks heading to HOF
Sage Rosenfels is a former 12-year NFL quarterback who writes, does radio, and podcasts about the NFL and college football.
With the NFL's annual celebration of its Hall of Fame inductees only three weeks away, I thought I'd take some time to identify which current NFL quarterbacks will be wearing a gold jacket some day.
Having your bust placed in the Hall with the rest of football's greatest players and coaches is a dream for most NFL players. These men are already shoo-ins to the Hall, while a trio of others are well on their way.
Tom Brady, New England Patriots
With five Super Bowl wins in his seven appearances, Brady solidified himself as one of the top three quarterbacks of all time. In my opinion, he is the best of all time. His level of success is unmatched.
Despite the fact that he is almost 40, Brady is still playing at an extremely high level. For years, non-Patriots fans have been hoping for his effectiveness to drop, only to have their hopes dashed. The question of Brady entering the Hall isn't if, but when.
It would not surprise me if Brady plays for another five years, especially given his dedication to the science of diet and training. Mobility and arm strength are usually the first things that leave an aging quarterback, forcing them to retire. Brady never had great mobility and, because of the fundamentals of his throwing motion, his arm strength has yet to be an issue. Brady will be in the Hall, but it may not happen for another decade.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Despite riding the bench for the first three years of his career, Rodgers is a shoo-in Hall of Famer.
Since 2008, his first year as a starter, Rodgers has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He has won two NFL MVPs, was selected first team All-Pro twice, is a six-time Pro Bowler, and won a Super Bowl. He is still only 33, so football fans get to enjoy Rodgers' magic for another 5-10 years. He has one of the NFL's strongest and most accurate arms.
Over the last few seasons, he has also become one of the league's best playmakers. A strong, accurate arm, combined with the ability to make off-schedule plays, is an extremely rare combination - so rare that he will be a shoo-in exactly five years after he retires. Packers fans have been unbelievably lucky to have Brett Favre and Rodgers back-to-back. I wonder if their busts will be near each other in Canton.
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
The second-oldest quarterback in the NFL after Brady, Brees has the third most all-time passing yards - less than 6,000 yards behind Favre and Peyton Manning. If he can play two more seasons, he'll pass both of them.
Brees is also third all time in TD passes. He has won a Super Bowl and owns every passing record in New Orleans Saints history. Despite being a second-round draft pick and standing barely six feet tall, Brees has defied the odds.
In a league which values quarterbacks with strong arms or raw athleticism, Brees found his niche with accuracy. He owns the NFL record for highest career completion percentage at 66.6. Because the Saints have had three consecutive 7-9 seasons, Brees' numbers haven't been noticed as of late. In 2016, he must have had the quietest 5,200-yard season in NFL history.
How long Brees plays for is anyone's guess, but his stats haven't dropped off as much as you'd expect from an older quarterback without a huge arm. His last six seasons have produced the most yards of any six-year run in the league's history.
Brees also takes incredible care of his body. It would not surprise me if he, like Brady, plays for another five seasons. However longer he plays, his place in Canton has already been secured.
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
Big Ben is also a no-doubt Hall of Famer.
He is into his 14th NFL season, which could be his last. After winning Rookie of the Year honors in 2004, Roethlisberger won his first of two Super Bowls in his sophomore season. He holds the distinction of being the youngest quarterback to ever win a Super Bowl.
Early in his career, his greatest asset was his ability to grind out ugly wins on a team loaded with defensive talent and a strong running game. As his career has progressed, more and more of Pittsburgh's offensive responsibility has rested on Roethlisberger's right shoulder. Of his five Pro Bowls, three have come in the last three seasons.
Roethlisberger won't end his career with numerous NFL passing records, which is just fine with him. His greatest strength has always been his ability to find ways to win football games. He has won over 70 percent of the games in his career, and has made Heinz Field one of the hardest places to play in the league.
Big Ben won't be remembered for statistics such as passing yards or career touchdowns. Those have always been inconsequential to him. Winning has been and always will be all that matters. He has done plenty of that through his first 13 seasons, which is why he will be in the Hall, as well.
Eli Manning, New York Giants
Similar to Roethlisberger, Eli is best known for being a clutch quarterback in the biggest games of his career.
He has won two Super Bowls, the first against the previously undefeated Patriots. He has been selected to four Pro Bowls and is 8-4 in the playoffs. Though he has only made it to the playoffs in six of his 13 seasons, his two Super Bowl wins give him the extra push he needs to make it into the Hall.
Eli owns nearly every Giants passing record, while holding down the starting quarterback job for the G-Men since midway through his rookie season. His ability to stay healthy puts him into an elite category with Favre and his older brother, Peyton. He is currently third all time with 199 starts in a row.
Eli also has thrown for the eighth most career passing yards in NFL history. Though Eli's career hasn't been as consistently great as Brady or Rodgers, he will have done enough by its end to land him in Canton.
Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers
While some may disagree, Rivers will be in the Hall of Fame. He, like Marino, will enter the Hall without a Super Bowl ring.
Drafted in 2004 after Eli and before Roethlisberger, Rivers has had disadvantages that the other two quarterbacks never faced. While the Giants and Steelers are two of the classiest and smartest NFL franchises, the Chargers are known for making bad decisions and being cheap with players.
Despite this, Rivers is currently ranked 12th all time in passing yards, but could end his 2017 season as high as seventh on the list. He is right behind Eli on the list of consecutive starts with 148. If he weren't sitting behind Brees for his first two seasons, he would probably be ahead of Eli, as well.
The Chargers have always been an inconsistent team, but Rivers has been the glue that has kept the Bolts competitive for the last 11 seasons. His six Pro Bowls and passing stats will get him to the Hall, despite the Chargers' inability to build a consistent playoff team.
And here are three other active QBs who could play their way into Hall of Fame contention if they continue down their current paths:
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
In only nine seasons, Ryan is already ranked 21st all time in passing yards. His career so far isn't enough to get him into the Hall of Fame. But, after winning the NFL MVP award in 2016, Ryan is well on his way.
In just two years, he will be on the cusp of the NFL's top-10 passing yard leaders. He has been to four Pro Bowls and came within minutes of winning a Super Bowl last year. If his career ended today, Ryan wouldn't get in. Luckily for Falcons fans, he should have another 8-10 more seasons as their starter.
When his career concludes, Ryan may go down as one of the NFL's greatest passers. He could be a top-five leader in passing yards, touchdowns, and consecutive starts. He currently is seventh all time with 115 straight games under center. Ryan has a long career ahead of him, which may end up being on a short road to Canton.
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Though he is only five years into his career, Wilson is on a path to the Hall of Fame. He has made three Pro Bowls in those five seasons, as well as winning a Super Bowl (should've been two).
Despite being one of the shortest quarterbacks in recent NFL history, Wilson should have a lengthy career. He is strong and compact which should keep him away from season-ending injuries. Like Rodgers, Wilson is one of the best playmaking quarterbacks in the league. Though he doesn't light up the record books with gaudy passing stats, he is a talented passer.
Wilson has a career 65 percent completion rate and is the most accurate deep-throwing QB in the NFL. Wilson has another decade left in his NFL career if he stays healthy. At this rate, he will have his bronze bust waiting for him in Ohio.
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
In six seasons, Newton has made the Pro Bowl three times. He also was the MVP in 2015. His passing numbers have never compared well to the greatest throwers in league history.
But Newton has an element to his game that Marino, Brees, and Peyton have never had. Cam has also ran for over 3,500 yards in his six seasons. Most importantly and why he is so valuable, is that Newton has 48 rushing touchdowns. His combination of passing and running makes him a scary player to defend.
My biggest concern with Newton is injuries. Because of his large frame and playing style, he is susceptible to brutal hits. As his career progresses, he and the Panthers will have him running less and passing more. While he has a huge arm and throws a beautiful ball, he has yet to master the intricacies of the NFL passing game.
This will have to change if he too wants a long career. What Newton has accomplished as an NFL quarterback is special. But because of the way he plays, his style will undoubtedly need to change if he wants to reach the Hall of Fame. He is the only quarterback on this list that I have to say that about.
(Photos courtesy: Action Images)