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The NFL Draft is a betting vehicle unlike any other. With a week between games during the season, no league provides more time for bettors to decide who they'll put their money on. However, a week becomes months with the draft, meaning the early bird gets the worm - or in this case, the value - which explains why we've been trying for months to get to the bottom of who'll top the 2022 event.

Like any betting market, we've tried to create value by making bets at prices before they shorten. Our calculated risks come from logical breakdowns of the draft, even if the NFL decision-makers can at times make picks devoid of much common sense.

First overall pick odds (Jan. 4)

No one knows who is going where. Even the Jaguars don't seem to know. Those claiming to have sources are likely being used by those sources to create misdirection that may benefit the team. We've long been at the forefront of the #NotHutch movement in this space, even when he was the favorite. Now, apparently, Aidan Hutchinson is not even the top edge rusher on the Jaguars' board.

Is there a bet left to make?

The word out of Jacksonville is that an offensive lineman is still in play, but the odds suggest that Ikem Ekwonu would be the tackle taken and not Evan Neal - as the former is up to +450 - if you're still hoping Doug Pederson will win the right to make the final call.

Player draft position over/unders (April 13)

We're sitting pretty with our Hutchinson Over 1.5 ticket at +225 now that he's -350 for Jacksonville to pass him over.

PLAYER	AS OF 4/16	AS OF 4/27
Kayvon Thibodeaux	U5.5 (+100)	U4.5 (-205)
Garrett Wilson	U10.5 (-115)	U9.5 (-130)
Jordan Davis	O13.5 (-160)	U14.5 (+125)

There were reasons the value was sucked out of those bets: The recognition that a team will scoop Thibodeaux up if available at the fifth pick, the 10th pick will more likely be used on a wide receiver like Wilson, and the Ravens would be a viable landing spot for Davis at 14.

Is there a bet left to make?

Not on these players, but more players have been lined than there were two weeks ago. The lesson: If you show up on draft week intending to get value in your bets, you're too late.

For player over/under bets, the best option might be at the league's highest-profile position.

QB markets (April 25)

This is where we're trying to have a little fun with uncertainty around these players, and the odds haven't changed much. Some are hinting that the Falcons like Malik Willis (+350) at the 8th pick, but those odds are a little short for me.

Is there a bet left to make?

Both quarterbacks are seeing their draft position crashing. Willis Under 13.5 (+100) is worth a play on the idea that someone - likely via trade - might grab the prospect with the most upside at the most important position. Willis (-190) is still the safer bet to be the first taken at his position.

First-round picks (April 18)

Value doesn't exclusively come with a plus sign in front of the number. That was evident with Jameson Williams (-700) and Trevor Penning (-500) - our two picks to definitely go in Round 1. The two are now listed at -3500 and -1000, respectively.

Is there a bet left to make?

Both Arnold Ebiketie's and Christian Watson's prices have slightly improved to go in the first round. Watson is +115 to go in the first 32 picks, but he's even-money to go Under 39.5. I'd sacrifice 15% of my payout to have the comfort of seven extra picks.

Positional totals (April 20)

Under 7.5 (+135) offensive linemen really got out of hand, as it's now -205. Meanwhile Under 1.5 (+200) safeties hasn't changed much and is an underdog still relying on players at more valuable positions to go late in the first round.

Is there a bet left to make?

Over 15.5 first-round defensive players is still widely available at -125. If you're worried about someone doing something crazy like drafting a kicker in the first round, making the same bet on Under 16.5 offensive players is the play.

Remaining bets

Heavily-juiced bets are a much better idea the closer we get to the draft since there's obviously less time for things to drastically change. With fewer opportunities to make a deal and all duplicitous options exhausted, more reliable information may come out as clubs bring more individuals into the decision-making. Loose lips sink ships, but they also provide last-minute betting opportunities if you're willing to pay the juice.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

3d:T1b97,

First overall pick odds (Jan. 4)

Is there a bet left to make?

Player draft position over/unders (April 13)

We're sitting pretty with our Hutchinson Over 1.5 ticket at +225 now that he's -350 for Jacksonville to pass him over.

PLAYER	AS OF 4/16	AS OF 4/27
Kayvon Thibodeaux	U5.5 (+100)	U4.5 (-205)
Garrett Wilson	U10.5 (-115)	U9.5 (-130)
Jordan Davis	O13.5 (-160)	U14.5 (+125)

Is there a bet left to make?

Not on these players, but more players have been lined than there were two weeks ago. The lesson: If you show up on draft week intending to get value in your bets, you're too late.

For player over/under bets, the best option might be at the league's highest-profile position.

QB markets (April 25)

Is there a bet left to make?

First-round picks (April 18)

Is there a bet left to make?

Positional totals (April 20)

Is there a bet left to make?

Remaining bets

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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Davis","type":"PlayerTag","images":{"small":"https://d1si3tbndbzwz9.cloudfront.net/transparent_default_headshot_small.png"},"api_uri":"/ncaaf/players/133104","colours":["DA291C","000000"],"subscribable_alerts":[{"key":"touchdown","default":false,"display":"Touchdown"},{"key":"sack","default":true,"display":"Sack"},{"key":"interception","default":true,"display":"Interception"},{"key":"fumble","default":true,"display":"Forced Fumble"},{"key":"final_player_stats","default":false,"display":"Final Player Stats"},{"key":"player_news","default":true,"display":"Breaking News"}],"has_transparent_headshots":false}],"display_type":"default"}}] 3e:T1f82,

It's the season of lying in the NFL.

Misinformation is the name of the game in the lead-up to the draft, presenting a particularly difficult challenge in an event based entirely on information.

With two weeks to go before the first round, teams are doing whatever they can to create an advantage, using the media to pump up the value of their pick in hopes of inducing a trade that will set them up for years to come. Since some pick trades will happen, it can be difficult to predict where players will be drafted.

Let's take a look at the draft position over/unders for individual players and try to determine where the valuable bets might be.

PLAYER	DRAFT POSITION	O/U ODDS
Aidan Hutchinson	1.5	+225/-280
Travon Walker	3.5	+185/-230
Ikem Ekwonu	3.5	-110/-120
Evan Neal	3.5	-200/+155
Kayvon Thibodeaux	5.5	-130/+100
Charles Cross	7.5	-150/+120
Ahmad Gardner	8.5	+160/-200
Kyle Hamilton	8.5	-150/+120
Jermaine Johnson II	9.5	+110/-140
Derek Stingley Jr.	10.5	-105/-125
Garrett Wilson	10.5	-115/-115
Drake London	10.5	-125/-105
Jordan Davis	13.5	-160/+130
Jameson Williams	16.5	+150/-200
Trevor Penning	16.5	-125/-105
George Karlaftis	16.5	-135/+105
Trent McDuffie	17.5	-105/-125
Chris Olave	17.5	-115/-115
Devin Lloyd	18.5	+100/-130
Treylon Burks	23.5	-120/-110
Andrew Booth Jr.	26.5	-115/-115
Tyler Linderbaum	27.5	-105/-125

Like any bet, the goal is to beat the market before either a price adjustment or a line adjustment. Many of these draft position lines are created with a team in mind - a player may be considered sought-after by a franchise that's drafting at a particular spot.

Best bets

Aidan Hutchinson over 1.5 (+225)

Call it a conspiracy theory, but I'm not sold on the Jaguars taking Hutchinson. With the Detroit Lions picking at No. 2, the Jags might think the Michigan Wolverine is attractive enough to get the Lions to make a modest trade up, or maybe he'll entice another team to deal into the top spot. If that happens, this bet loses, but no other prospect has the same appeal, so the Jaguars have no reason to give us the impression they'll take anyone else.

You may want to fade Hutchinson as first pick overall by trying to hit on who will go No. 1, but there are too many other good candidates for Jacksonville. If the Jags do keep the pick, I've made the case for why they may still select an offensive lineman, but there's fire to go with the smoke that is Travon Walker's move up the board.

Meanwhile, Hutchinson at just -280 this close to the draft is a potential clue - the No. 1 pick is often a much heavier favorite at this point.

Kayvon Thibodeaux under 5.5 (+100)

As with the previous bet, we'd prefer to make draft bets that have two chances to win.

With two picks in the first seven selections, the Giants should have two primary targets - a pass-rusher and an offensive lineman. Who's available depends in part on what their MetLife Stadium roommates do, as the Jets hold the fourth pick.

This market suggests that the first three picks will be Hutchinson, Walker, and Ekwonu in some order. That would leave the Jets to decide between Evan Neal, Kayvon Thibodeaux, or a star cornerback. If they take Thibodeaux, this bet cashes. If they take either Ahmad Gardner or Derek Stingley, then the Giants can grab the Oregon pass-rusher - who at one point was suggested as the first overall pick - at No. 5.

With the Panthers expected to draft a quarterback sixth overall, Neal would still be free for the Giants at No. 7. On top of that, if the Lions or Texans go for a cornerback with their first pick, the Giants would be assured that they could get an offensive tackle with their next selection.

Garrett Wilson under 10.5 (-115)

There are two ways this wins: either the Falcons find Marcus Mariota someone to throw to besides Kyle Pitts at No. 8, or the Jets add a playmaker for Zach Wilson at No. 10.

Jordan Davis over 13.5 (-160)

When betting these props, remind yourself what teams desire in the modern NFL. A run-stuffing defensive tackle is something of a luxury that the Ravens would be happy to add to their defense with the 14th pick. However, Davis is unlikely to draw enough attention for anyone to trade in front of Baltimore. There are too many other good prospects at prime positions like pass-rusher, cornerback, offensive line, wide receiver, and quarterback for a team to reach on Davis.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

3f:T1f82,

It's the season of lying in the NFL.

Misinformation is the name of the game in the lead-up to the draft, presenting a particularly difficult challenge in an event based entirely on information.

Let's take a look at the draft position over/unders for individual players and try to determine where the valuable bets might be.

PLAYER	DRAFT POSITION	O/U ODDS
Aidan Hutchinson	1.5	+225/-280
Travon Walker	3.5	+185/-230
Ikem Ekwonu	3.5	-110/-120
Evan Neal	3.5	-200/+155
Kayvon Thibodeaux	5.5	-130/+100
Charles Cross	7.5	-150/+120
Ahmad Gardner	8.5	+160/-200
Kyle Hamilton	8.5	-150/+120
Jermaine Johnson II	9.5	+110/-140
Derek Stingley Jr.	10.5	-105/-125
Garrett Wilson	10.5	-115/-115
Drake London	10.5	-125/-105
Jordan Davis	13.5	-160/+130
Jameson Williams	16.5	+150/-200
Trevor Penning	16.5	-125/-105
George Karlaftis	16.5	-135/+105
Trent McDuffie	17.5	-105/-125
Chris Olave	17.5	-115/-115
Devin Lloyd	18.5	+100/-130
Treylon Burks	23.5	-120/-110
Andrew Booth Jr.	26.5	-115/-115
Tyler Linderbaum	27.5	-105/-125

Best bets

Aidan Hutchinson over 1.5 (+225)

Meanwhile, Hutchinson at just -280 this close to the draft is a potential clue - the No. 1 pick is often a much heavier favorite at this point.

Kayvon Thibodeaux under 5.5 (+100)

As with the previous bet, we'd prefer to make draft bets that have two chances to win.

Garrett Wilson under 10.5 (-115)

There are two ways this wins: either the Falcons find Marcus Mariota someone to throw to besides Kyle Pitts at No. 8, or the Jets add a playmaker for Zach Wilson at No. 10.

Jordan Davis over 13.5 (-160)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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The real battle Friday night will happen between your viewing needs and social obligations, as the CFP semifinals land on New Year's Eve for the first time since 2016.

While you can comfortably watch the Cotton Bowl without an eye on the clock, the Orange Bowl will need to be a true classic for it to be worth the relationship strife.

Jim Harbaugh's Michigan makes its long-awaited debut in the College Football Playoff, and its reward is a date with Georgia - the undisputed best team in college football this season prior to being punched in the mouth in the SEC championship game. Was the Bulldogs' loss simply a one-off, or an indication they're not as good as we once thought?

Michigan vs. Georgia (-7.5, 45)

Line movement

Outside of making a few appearances at -8.5, this line has mostly remained steady at -7.5 for Georgia. In a few locations, the line dipped to -7 overnight on Wednesday only to pop back up to -7.5. The total opened low at 43 and has quietly risen to 45 in the last week.

Michigan's offense vs. Georgia's defense

Georgia does what Michigan does, only better.

Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum have been the key to the Wolverines offensively, but they will run into a literal wall by the name of Jordan Davis on Friday night. The core of the outstanding Bulldogs' defensive line is not something Michigan has had to deal with in games against Iowa and Ohio State - their last two significant matchups.

I backed Michigan in the Big Ten championship, and Iowa's vaunted run defense simply couldn't prevent the big play. Georgia's defense - which gave up the third-fewest yards per carry and yards per game - takes it personally if you go anywhere near the end zone, giving up just three rushing touchdowns this season. The next lowest total was six (Texas A&M).

Georgia's defense got a dose of reality in the SEC championship game, but it wasn't the first time Alabama exposed some weaknesses in a very good team, nor will it be the last. Having Bryce Young is going to help with that. For as good as Cade McNamara has been in commanding one of the nation's most efficient offenses, he doesn't provide the same consistent threat down the field that can beat the Bulldogs.

Georgia's offense vs. Michigan's defense

For all the criticism Stetson Bennett endured after a subpar SEC championship game, his statistics are virtually the same as McNamara's. The thing that hurt Bennett is he wasn't able to keep up with Young. Hours later, anything McNamara did looked good in comparison to the horrific Iowa offense.

Obviously, the Wolverines' defense has proven its worth, with Aidan Hutchinson getting a front-row seat at the Heisman ceremony as the runner-up and David Ojabo scheduling team meetings at the quarterback with him. However, a defense that good is always going to look great against Iowa, Penn State, and other Big Ten teams not known for their offense.

Against Ohio State and their pass-happy offense, C.J. Stroud had 394 yards and two touchdowns, but Michigan was able to outscore the Buckeyes that day in Ann Arbor. They weren't quite able to outscore the Spartans in East Lansing, who got almost 200 yards on the ground and five touchdowns from Kenneth Walker.

Georgia is multi-dimensional and uses the mobility of Bennett, who is more willing and dangerous on the ground than both Stroud and the Spartans' Payton Thorne. Zamir White and James Cook provide equally dangerous options in the backfield.

The final wrinkle is the status of Dax Hill, who was reportedly left behind on the trip to Miami due to a COVID-19 issue. The star safety would theoretically play a major role in defending a key Georgia weapon - tight end Brock Bowers.

Special teams

Michigan has the highest-rated special teams unit in the country, according to Football Outsiders, in part thanks to Lou Groza Award winner Jake Moody, the nation's best kicker. Georgia is much closer to average in special teams, but Jack Podlesny made 18 of 22 field goals this season, so it's not an area of weakness, either.

How to bet the game

Somewhere along the way from being touchdown favorites vs. Alabama to losing to Nick Saban's juggernaut, Georgia seemed to lose its urgency. Perhaps beating the daylights out of every SEC opponent - and Clemson - was a bad thing? While it was nowhere to be found against 'Bama, the reality-inducing loss will certainly help the Bulldogs rediscover their sense of urgency.

A month of preparation for a team Georgia is better than should set Kirby Smart up for a rematch with Saban. Meanwhile, a lack of market faith for the Bulldogs' coach-and-quarterback combo or the always prevalent Michigan support might provide a flat 7 to bet on before kickoff. We'll wait for that, but will still back the Dawgs at the current price if it doesn't come. Expect them to hold the Wolverines' offense down in something resembling a 27-13 type of game.

Pick: Georgia -7.5 (look for -7 and play at -120 or better)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

41:T20f3,

The real battle Friday night will happen between your viewing needs and social obligations, as the CFP semifinals land on New Year's Eve for the first time since 2016.

While you can comfortably watch the Cotton Bowl without an eye on the clock, the Orange Bowl will need to be a true classic for it to be worth the relationship strife.

Michigan vs. Georgia (-7.5, 45)

Line movement

Michigan's offense vs. Georgia's defense

Georgia does what Michigan does, only better.

Georgia's offense vs. Michigan's defense

Special teams

How to bet the game

Pick: Georgia -7.5 (look for -7 and play at -120 or better)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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Alabama has missed the College Football Playoff before, but even in those "lean years," bettors would dream of the day when the Crimson Tide were plus-money underdogs. If you exclude the one time that Bama was a one-point 'dog (at Georgia), it's been 165 games since you could bet on Nick Saban as a significant underdog.

We'll wake up Saturday morning with that dream being a reality, as Alabama is nearly a touchdown underdog against Georgia in Atlanta for the SEC Championship.

Alabama's offense vs. Georgia's defense

Alabama's offensive line has had problems protecting Bryce Young. It's allowed Florida, LSU, Arkansas, and Auburn to have the football in the fourth quarter with at least a chance to take a lead or, in the case of the Tigers, salt one away. Only Texas A&M was able to seal a victory over the Tide.

Meanwhile, injuries have taken their toll on Alabama's run game, which, when all else has failed in the past, has been something to rely on. This year, the Crimson Tide are 86th in the country in rushing yardage, and now they're supposed to run on Jordan Davis? Best of luck.

Meanwhile, what is there to say that hasn't been already been said about Georgia's defense? Atop the college ranks in any meaningful metric you can come up with, the Bulldogs have passed the eye test since suffocating Clemson in the season opener. If you traded their uniforms for those of an NFL team, you wouldn't be able to tell the difference.

The one question mark within Kirby Smart's group is the secondary simply because the opposing quarterbacks on the Bulldogs' schedule haven't had the ability to consistently test it. The list of quality quarterbacks in the SEC is not long: Matt Corral, Will Rogers, and Young. That's it. The Bulldogs didn't see any of those QBs this season - until now. Unlike the teams they've faced, Alabama has the depth to use options who won't be covered by Derion Kendrick.

Georgia's offense vs. Alabama's defense

Alabama's defense has been tricky to figure out. One week it's giving up points to Texas A&M, Tennessee, or Arkansas; the next week it's smothering Ole Miss and Mississippi State. Outside of Will Anderson (draft eligible in 2023), the Tide don't have any clear first-round talent on the defensive side of the ball.

The Crimson Tide used to break your back when you bet against them because they'd score on defense to help cover a spread. This season, they have just one defensive touchdown.

As you'd expect, Bama's run defense is top-five in the country, right behind the Bulldogs. It will come in handy against Zamir White and James Cook, weapons Georgia uses to smash opponents on the ground. Like teams before them, the Tide's plan against the Bulldogs is to make Stetson Bennett beat them. His pass-catchers aren't household names, as no one has more receptions than tight end Brock Bowers' 37.

The market

Early in the season, I'd tell anyone who would listen that I was looking forward to betting the Bulldogs in this game as an underdog. That's not the case now.

Midway through Alabama's near loss to Auburn, I bet on Georgia at the sportsbooks that left their lookahead lineup at -4. That's not the case anymore either.

In the days since then, the number has climbed up to -6.5. Dips back to -6 have shown there's some interest in Bama before it has hit a flat +7. Since I'm allergic to taking the worst of the number, I can't recommend a bet on Georgia at higher than -5.5. However, I won't back Alabama just because Nick Saban is an underdog.

There is an angle worth looking at in the in-play live betting markets, though. This is one of the rare instances where a team should pull out all the stops to merely cover the point spread.

It's widely assumed that a narrow loss will give Alabama the benefit of the doubt and a place in the College Football Playoff. So if the Crimson Tide are down by 10-plus points late, they will have urgency to make things close to appease the committee. Therefore, the backdoor in this game will be more wide-open for a team that has no problem throwing the ball, while the Bulldogs will be content on letting the Tide score as long as they do so as the clock nears 0:00.

How to bet the SEC Championship

Unlike many teams the Bulldogs have seen, the Crimson Tide can play from behind, so an in-game bet on the Tide at anything above +7 would be worth a look at halftime or beyond. Meanwhile, a late score might be enough to push this over the 49-point total at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, a stadium that's recently trended to the over.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

43:T1bc5,

We'll wake up Saturday morning with that dream being a reality, as Alabama is nearly a touchdown underdog against Georgia in Atlanta for the SEC Championship.

Alabama's offense vs. Georgia's defense

Georgia's offense vs. Alabama's defense

The Crimson Tide used to break your back when you bet against them because they'd score on defense to help cover a spread. This season, they have just one defensive touchdown.

The market

Early in the season, I'd tell anyone who would listen that I was looking forward to betting the Bulldogs in this game as an underdog. That's not the case now.

Midway through Alabama's near loss to Auburn, I bet on Georgia at the sportsbooks that left their lookahead lineup at -4. That's not the case anymore either.

There is an angle worth looking at in the in-play live betting markets, though. This is one of the rare instances where a team should pull out all the stops to merely cover the point spread.

How to bet the SEC Championship

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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Jordan Davis

Jordan Davis

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