Ohio State heads to the West Coast to face a reeling USC squad on Saturday in a massive Big Ten matchup. Can the Buckeyes keep it rolling without Julian Sayin and make Lincoln Riley's seat even hotter?
Let's dive in. Here are our picks and favorite bets against the spread.
👉 Check out all college football Week 9 lines on theScore Bet
Our trio of betting writers - Brenden Deeg, Dane Belbeck, and Eric Patterson - will make picks against the spread for the week's biggest games all season.
Brenden Deeg breaks down a few of this week's marquee matchups, adding his own analysis and insights. He also identifies three hidden gems the public may be overlooking.
Game time - 4:15 p.m. ET
🏈 Bet: South Carolina (+3.5)
Carolina has found its form, ripping off back-to-back wins over ranked opponents. Now, Shane Beamer's program faces Oklahoma, whose offense can't be trusted.
The Sooners' offense ranks 115th in yards per play and is averaging just 14.4 points per game against Power 4 competition, the third-worst mark among all Power 4 programs, according to TruMedia. Quarterback John Mateer has been particularly bad, ranking 104th in EPA/dropback among 131 qualifying FBS signal-callers. In five contests against Power 4 opponents this year, Mateer has posted only six touchdowns to seven turnovers.
Meanwhile, South Carolina's defensive front has excelled in recent weeks, and projected top-10 pick Dylan Stewart has been relentless since returning from suspension. The Gamecocks' pass rush should dominate an Oklahoma offensive line that ranks 107th in sack rate and 118th in pressure rate.
LaNorris Sellers has also played great lately. He's re-established himself as one of the country's most dangerous quarterbacks, producing 10 touchdowns and just two turnovers over the last three weeks against Kentucky, Florida, and Tennessee. South Carolina's offensive line held up well against the Volunteers' nasty front, and I think the Gamecocks will put some points on the board against Oklahoma.
South Carolina has the better quarterback and is playing well. I've got the Gamecocks to keep it rolling and potentially win outright. 👉 Add South Carolina to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
Game time - 7 p.m.
🏈 Bet: Florida State (-6.5)
This one is simple for me. One team can move the ball efficiently, while the other can't. Clemson's offense is on a hilarious trajectory right now: among 138 FBS programs, the Tigers rank 116th in success rate, 131st in yards per play, and 136th in total EPA.
A big reason for Clemson's offensive problems is Tait Reynolds' quarterback play. The freshman sits last among 69 qualified Power 4 quarterbacks in EPA/dropback and has just one passing touchdown to six turnovers in five starts.
In contrast, Florida State's offense has been solid recently, scoring 34-plus points in four of its last five games, including against Alabama and Miami. Since Sept. 18, the Seminoles have averaged 6.8 yards per play, ranking 12th nationally. Ashton Daniels has been a major catalyst, accounting for 19 total touchdowns during that stretch, the fourth-most among all signal-callers. Notably, LSU's Sam Leavitt gashed Clemson's defense on the ground in the season opener, and Daniels is a threat with his legs, too.
Florida State is returning from a bye week, while Clemson is on the road after losing to Virginia Tech in Death Valley last Saturday. I like the Seminoles to cover this spread. 👉 Add Florida State to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
Game time - 7:30 p.m.
🏈 Bet: Ohio State (-6.5)
You could argue that Riley is coaching for his job on Saturday at the Coliseum. USC is 6-2 on the season, but its best win is against … Washington? It's also coming off a massive road loss to Wisconsin, and now the No. 2-ranked Buckeyes are coming to town.
My biggest concern in that loss to the Badgers was the Trojans' inability to gain traction on the ground. They finished with minus-17 rushing yards in the blowout, and King Miller, USC's top running back, managed only 8 yards on 11 carries. Although Riley's Air Raid system creates light boxes for his offense, Ohio State is allowing just 3.0 yards per carry in light boxes and ranks sixth in the country in rush success rate in those formations. This could be another long game for the Trojans' running attack.
USC just doesn't have the high-powered offense we've seen from past Riley-coached teams. Among Power 4 schools, the Trojans rank 31st in explosive pass rate, dropping to 36th against Power 4 opponents. Meanwhile, Ohio State has been elite at limiting big pass plays, allowing 15 completions on 43 attempts on throws traveling 15 or more air yards.
Despite Julian Sayin's absence for the foreseeable future, I think the Buckeyes can still succeed with either Luke Fahey or Tavien St. Clair, especially against the Trojans. USC's defense ranks 70th in pressures, 109th in total EPA, and 116th in takeaways per game. With Ohio State's offensive line now healthy following the bye week, it should hold up against this mediocre defensive front.
The Trojans have struggled to establish a strong running game or consistently generate explosive plays, and I don't see them scoring a touchdown against a much more talented team. 👉 Add Ohio State to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
Game time - 3:30 p.m.
🏈 Bet: Colorado State (+6.5)
Jim Mora isn't having a great first season at Colorado State, mainly because his defense has been one of the worst, if not the worst, in the country. But I really like this spot for the Rams.
Utah State's offense has been atrocious this year since losing coordinator Kevin McGiven, who's currently thriving in the same role at Utah. The Aggies rank 135th in offensive success rate, and their 21-point outing against Troy is the only time they've scored more than 20 points this season. Ranking 129th in EPA/dropback, Utah State likely won't be able to take advantage of Colorado State's weak pass defense, which it'll need to do to turn things around.
Although the Rams' defense has struggled, their offense has been great, sitting 13th in yards per carry and 19th in yards per play. The Aggies, meanwhile, have faced only weak offenses this year, yet their defense still ranks a mediocre 67th in success rate. Colorado State is well-positioned to tee off on this unit, and you're getting 6.5 points to work with. 👉 Add Colorado State to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
Game time - 7:30 p.m.
🏈 Bet: Pitt (-8.5)
Both Pitt and Georgia Tech are coming off blowout losses, but the Yellow Jackets' beatdown was much more concerning, and I don't see this program showing much fight the rest of the season.
Georgia Tech got bounced 49-27 at home by Boston College as 6.5-point favorites last week. Its defense can't seem to stop anyone this year, ranking 108th nationally in success rate and 123rd in EPA/play while allowing 33.5 points per game against Power 4 opponents.
The Yellow Jackets are dealing with injuries on both sides of the ball, particularly along the defensive line, and are just less talented than Pitt right now. The Panthers are rolling with backup Holden Geriner in place of the injured Mason Heintschel, and he looked solid against Miami last week despite the loss. Given that Pitt's defense still ranks 23rd in the country in success rate, this game screams double-digit win for the Panthers. 👉 Add Pitt to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
Game time - 11 p.m.
🏈 Bet: Oregon State (-5.5)
Oregon State's undefeated record against the spread ended two weeks ago, but it failed to cover by just half a point. Following a bye week, the Beavers now take on Fresno State.
The Bulldogs have allowed 77 total points in their two games against upper-echelon offenses (USC and Boise State) this season, surrendering at least 38 points in each contest. Oregon State will be the best offense Fresno State faces this year.
The Beavers rank second in total offensive EPA, fourth in points per game, and fifth in yards per play. Quarterback Braden Atkinson and wide receiver Jesse Legree - who leads the nation in receiving yards - should have their way with a Bulldogs defense that ranks 73rd in pass success rate. Getting this number under a touchdown feels like a steal. 👉 Add Oregon State to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
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