Bowl season has never been worse. A system that's been broken for a few years now will see something of a fix at the upper echelon, with a 12-team playoff coming next year. Good games like Penn State-Ole Miss and Oklahoma-Arizona will matter more, and bad games like Georgia-Florida State and Missouri-Ohio State will have all hands on deck.
We'll still see crackers, novelty breakfast items, and mayonnaise dumped on coaches in celebration, and the transfers and opt-outs among the also-rans won't be as noticeable between the playoff games.
All this to say that getting out of THIS bowl season profitable (21-17 ATS and 4-2 on plus-money anytime touchdowns in the CFP semis) is a relief, even if Monday's national title game doesn't go nearly as well as the Rose Bowl or an epic Sugar Bowl sweep.
No. 2 Washington @ No. 1 Michigan (-4.5, 56.5)
It's no secret that we've been pro-Husky and enthralled by Heisman runner-up Michael Penix in this space since August. There was no need to keep the cat in the bag when the line opened shortly after Washington's dramatic win Monday night:
Me: Tells himself not to overreact in the moment
— Matt Russell 🇨🇦 (@mrussauthentic) January 2, 2024
Also me: Cannot in any way, shape, or form, stop himself from betting Washington +4.5 on open
Based on last week's point spreads, Michigan would be -6, so you can understand why some bettors instinctively think anything close to -3 would be a valuable bet on the Wolverines. Michigan's been rated accurately - second to Georgia in the mid-to-high 80s - all season, with many of its games ending right around the point spread. The market's slow acceptance of Washington as a title contender is the more intriguing story.
Going into the final season of the Pac-12, we noted the Huskies' estimated market rating was 75/100. Despite an undefeated season and a convincing win over Oregon in the Pac-12 championship, Washington rose to an EMR of just 78/100. That doesn't evoke images of wild buying at the closing bell on Wall Street.
With a line of -4.5, using our point spread math, the Huskies are now up to 80/100, compared to Michigan at 87/100. I will still argue Washington is better than that rating and am unconvinced that Michigan should be rated that high.
The 2023 Michigan Wolverines
In Pasadena, Michigan sacked Jalen Milroe five times in the first half, indicating that the Crimson Tide offensive line had more issues than just snapping the ball. Beating Alabama, Iowa, Ohio State, Maryland, and Penn State down the stretch is impressive on the surface but becomes less so when you think about each of those teams' air attacks. The best quarterback in that group was Taulia Tagovailoa, whose QB rating this season was nestled between Tyler Van Dyke and Jack Plummer.
Alabama's adjustments halted the sacks on every second dropback, but the team still couldn't find the time to use Milroe's ability to throw deep. Can Washington protect against Michigan's rush? The Huskies became the first Pac-12 team to win the Joe Moore Award for the nation's top O-line, and it's not like Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo will be dressed Monday. Penix can test the Michigan secondary in a way no one else has managed.
The 2023 Washington Huskies
You likely don't need to be sold on the Washington offense, so let's discuss the other side of the ball.
Hopes were high for a defense with shutdown corner Jabbar Muhammad and potential game-wrecker Bralen Trice, but the Huskies' defensive metrics weren't national-title calibre this season, especially their 99th-ranked run defense by EPA/play.
Giving up 6.8 yards per carry to Texas' CJ Baxter and Jaydon Blue in the Sugar Bowl didn't hurt the Huskies because the longest carry was for 16 yards. Washington's defense held up even better against Oregon's tailbacks (14 carries, 55 yards) the second time around, and a deeper dive shows that, in the second half of the season, only Oregon State and USC ran for big numbers against the Huskies but couldn't keep up.
With Donovan Edwards now almost a nonfactor, Michigan's explosiveness has waned since it was a difference-maker in beating Ohio State in 2022. Blake Corum will likely produce the high-volume yardage like the Longhorns or the Beavers' Damien Martinez, but J.J. McCarthy needs to move the ball through the air as well. His role has been to throw within the numbers and not turn the ball over. Is managing an offense enough to not only win a national championship but also extend a lead to cover a point spread against a Washington team capable of scoring from anywhere? Maybe, but we haven't seen that from him yet.
Pick: Washington (+4.5)
Player props
Odds available at theScore Bet and ESPN Bet
Ja'Lynn Polk: Over 49.5 receiving yards
All the Huskies' yardage totals are depressed due to the market's respect for the Michigan defense, even though it isn't as good as the groups that Max Duggan or Stetson Bennett went right through in previous College Football Playoffs.
Not to oversimplify it, but with three top receivers capable of going off at any moment, we'll bet the one with the lowest total. Sophomore Polk recorded at least 50 receiving yards in all but one game this season.
Cornelius Johnson: Under 40.5 receiving yards
Johnson did most of his best statistical work early in the season. Given McCarthy seems less interested in forcing the ball to the outside against the better defenses, the senior wideout has topped 40 yards receiving just once in his last eight games. He needed nine catches to get 64 yards against Iowa. With freshmen Semaj Morgan and Tyler Morris becoming more involved, Johnson may be best used to occupy Muhammad, who was top 10 nationally in passes defended.
J.J. McCarthy: Anytime touchdown (+250)
Corum is the touchdown-maker on Michigan and everyone knows it. He's thus priced at a Christian McCaffrey-level -320 to score. With Corum likely to capture all of Washington's defensive attention near the goal line, Michigan can opt to have McCarthy keep it for a score - something he nearly did before flipping it to an open Roman Wilson for the Rose Bowl's game-tying touchdown.
Jack Westover: Anytime touchdown (+285, risk .8 units)
Devin Culp: Anytime touchdown (+1200, risk .25 units)
When the Huskies get into the red zone, Kalen DeBoer can go in a handful of directions, so let's split a unit on Washington's tight ends to score. Jack Westover catches everything in sight, and Devin Culp is an imposing weapon in the red zone who got a look that would've been a Sugar Bowl touchdown if it weren't for a rare off-target throw from Penix. If either score, we net two units.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
