For my money, it's best to attack the Heisman Trophy betting market after the season starts. Preseason favorites rarely play poorly enough to fall out of contention early. Last year, Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud remained in the mix for much of the season because there was never a reason to kick them out of the conversation.
However, in some cases - like with Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, DeVonta Smith, and Caleb Williams - a dark horse becomes the season's signature player as the campaign goes on. If you can beat the market into recognizing who that player is, you can get a valuable price because the presumed favorites take up large pieces of the market's win probability pie.
Williams was +650 at the start of the season, but we were able to wait in the wings to back him at a slightly better price at the beginning of November. Max Duggan finished second last year, which tells you how short attention spans are for this award. You don't want to back the player talked about early in the season.
Additionally, there's an added complication this campaign as last year's Heisman winner has to return for one more season before going pro.
Heisman Trophy odds
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | +650 |
| Jayden Daniels | +1000 |
| Quinn Ewers | +1200 |
| Jordan Travis | +1400 |
| Cade Klubnik | +1500 |
| Michael Penix | +1600 |
| Bo Nix | +1600 |
| Drake Maye | +1600 |
| J.J. McCarthy | +1800 |
| Sam Hartman | +1800 |
| Carson Beck | +2000 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | +2000 |
| Drew Allar | +2500 |
| Joe Milton | +2500 |
| Blake Corum | +3000 |
| Kyle McCord | +3000 |
| Dillon Gabriel | +4000 |
| Brock Bowers | +5000 |
| Connor Weigman | +5000 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | +5000 |
| Devin Brown | +6000 |
| Jalen Milroe | +6000 |
| Nicholas Singleton | +6000 |
| Braelon Allen | +7500 |
| Brock Vandagriff | +7500 |
| Cameron Rising | +7500 |
| Jalon Daniels | +7500 |
| Jeff Sims | +7500 |
| KJ Jefferson | +7500 |
| Quinshon Judkins | +7500 |
| Spencer Rattler | +7500 |
| Ty Simpson | +7500 |
| Tyler Buchner | +7500 |
| Will Howard | +7500 |
| Will Shipley | +7500 |
| DJ Uiagalelei | +10000 |
| Devin Leary | +10000 |
| Donovan Edwards | +10000 |
| Harold Perkins Jr. | +10000 |
| Jase McClellan | +10000 |
| Jaxson Dart | +10000 |
| Shedeur Sanders | +10000 |
| Tanner Mordecai | +10000 |
| Tyler Shough | +10000 |
| Tyler Van Dyke | +10000 |
*Players listed at longer than 100-1 not listed
Williams isn't a rare case as a Heisman winner returning for another season, but we're reminded each year that no one has won a second statue since Archie Griffin in 1975.
Returning Heisman winners since 2000
| YEAR | PLAYER | HEISMAN STATS | NEXT SEASON |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | Jason White | 3846 pass yds / 40 TD / 10 INT | 3205 pass yards / 35 TD / 9 INT |
| 2004 | Matt Leinart | 3322 pass yards / 33 TD / 6 INT | 3815 pass yds / 28 TD / 8 INT / 6 rush TD |
| 2007 | Tim Tebow | 3286 pass yards / 32 TD / 6 INT / 895 rush yds / 23 rush TD | 2746 pass yds / 30 TD / 4 INT / 673 rush yds / 12 rush TD |
| 2008 | Sam Bradford | 4720 pass yards / 50 TD / 8 INT | 562 pass yards / 2 TD |
| 2009 | Mark Ingram | 1658 rush yards / 17 TD | 875 rush yards / 13 TD |
| 2012 | Johnny Manziel | 3707 pass yds / 26 TD / 9 INT / 1410 rush yds / 21 rush TD | 4114 pass yds / 37 TD / 13 INT / 759 rush yds / 9 rush TD |
| 2013 | Jameis Winston | 4057 pass yds / 40 TD / 10 INT | 3907 pass yds / 25 TD / 18 INT |
| 2016 | Lamar Jackson | 3543 pass yds / 30 TD / 9 INT / 1571 rush yds / 21 rush TD | 3660 pass yds / 27 TD / 10 INT / 1601 rush yds / 18 rush TD |
Sam Bradford and Mark Ingram had injuries, but you'll notice the other six quarterbacks almost replicated their seasons. It wasn't enough to make history. Williams can have the same stats, but it likely won't impress voters the way it did last year. So, who else can win the Heisman this season?
Best bets
Michael Penix Jr. (+1600)
Michael Penix Jr. had the stats last season, but it's almost like it takes a year for teams in the Pacific Northwest to get the spotlight. With more passing yards than Williams last campaign, all Penix will need is a few more touchdown passes. Ironically, it's the Huskies' defense that makes them capable of beating USC in the first weekend of November, right when voters start paring down Heisman contenders.
Drake Maye (+1800)
Williams is the favorite to go first overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, but Drake Maye is right behind him. The North Carolina quarterback was right behind Penix and Williams in yardage last season. The Tar Heels also have a soft schedule before a game with Clemson that'll surely have Heisman voters' attention.
Dillon Gabriel (+4000)
We were on Dillon Gabriel before last year, but he missed a chance to show out in the Red River Rivalry after he suffered a concussion. Yet Gabriel still threw for 3,168 yards and a 25:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio while adding six touchdowns on the ground and a career high in rushing yards. If he can shock Texas this season and bump all those stats up 10-15%, he'll slot in well with historical comparisons.
Dante Moore (+15000)
Maybe it's because I just watched the Johnny Manziel Netflix documentary, but what if freshman athletic phenom Dante Moore gets the reins in Chip Kelly's UCLA offense the way Manziel did under Kliff Kingsbury? It's at least possible Moore will have numbers similar to Dorian Thompson-Robinson's 39 touchdowns. A tiny bet could pay off big.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
