When the calendar falls a certain way every seven years, one of college football's greatest days gets pushed back from its usual position. New Year's Day bowl games become January 2nd bowl games because of the behemoth that is the NFL, but that just means we get four more contests to bet on two days after the College Football Playoff finalists get set - that's a pretty good consolation prize.
ReliaQuest Bowl: Illinois vs. No. 24 Mississippi State (-2, 46.5)
The uncomfortable issue in handicapping this game is the jarring loss of beloved Mississippi State head coach Mike Leach. The Bulldogs have chosen to play this game despite his untimely death, and many of their previous opt-outs have actually reversed their decision. That, in conjunction with later opt-outs on the Illinois side, has caused the line to drift towards Mississippi State.
Tampa's "New Year's Day" bowl game has traded bloomin' onions for anti-virus software, but the glitch that bettors need to worry about might come from the Bulldogs' offense. Even without losing Leach, the Air Raid is at its best when its rhythm is uninterrupted. Bret Bielema has helped turn the Illini into one of the best defenses in the country, and they'll be ready for what Mississippi State wants to do.
Pick: Illinois +2
Citrus Bowl: Purdue vs. No. 16 LSU (-14.5, 56.5)
Why has this line drastically moved from LSU -5.5 to -14.5? Everyone on Purdue's side left.
An offense built on the connection of Aidan O'Connell to Charlie Jones has neither player available. Boilermakers head coach Jeff Brohm is headed home to his alma mater as well, taking the big gig at Louisville.
If we're being optimistic about Purdue's chances, let's propose that sixth-year senior quarterback Austin Burton will be excited to get his chance to run an offense he should know pretty well, as he threw three touchdowns in his only start earlier this year against Florida Atlantic. At least he'll have Brian Brohm - Jeff's brother - calling the plays, so there's a modicum of continuity there. Freshman tailback Devin Mockobee should also do some damage against the LSU run defense, as the Tigers are another squad juggling multiple opt-outs.
Interestingly, when a point spread has seen a significant move this bowl season, betting back the other way has proven quite lucrative, going 19-12-1 (through Friday) once the line has peaked. So backing the Boilermakers now shouldn't be as scary as it may seem given the steam, especially since Brian Kelly doesn't have the best track record in bowl games or as a big favorite.
Pick: Purdue +14.5
Cotton Bowl: No. 14 Tulane vs. No. 8 USC (-2, 63.5)
At the time of this writing, Caleb Williams appears ready to play in Dallas, and that might just be enough for me to take USC under a field goal.
Tulane has been awesome against the spread this campaign, and the team is full value due to its surprise run to an American Athletic Conference title and a New Year's Six bowl. The Green Wave will be completely engaged, and there's a history of Group of 5 teams winning this game. But victories by Boise State, UCF, and Cincinnati came at the culmination of a program's rise, not in the first year. Tulane fits the profile of Western Michigan and Memphis - teams overwhelmed talent-wise on the biggest stage.
The Green Wave's metrics suggest the Trojans will face a challenge - particularly their poor run defense against future NFLer Tyjae Spears. However, the AAC was down this season: UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston all finished below expectations, which opened the door for Tulane.
In his first year with USC, it's too early in Lincoln Riley's tenure for the Trojans to be above caring about the Cotton Bowl. Williams' playing is less about him being into the game and more about setting the tone for the rest of the team.
Pick: USC -2
Rose Bowl: No. 9 Penn State vs. No. 7 Utah (-2, 52.5)
The granddaddy of them all doesn't have a CFP tie-in, but the Rose Bowl is still the Rose Bowl. So we'll look at experience, comparing Utah and Penn State in their big games.
There's a pretty clear dividing line in Penn State's results under James Franklin. When the team plays inferior talent - whether it's second-tier teams in the Big Ten or bowl games against Boston College, Memphis, and Washington - the Nittany Lions will be the bully. But Franklin is 2-15 against top-10 teams since coming to Penn State, with New Year's bowl game losses to Georgia, USC, Kentucky, and Arkansas.
Meanwhile, Cam Rising and Kyle Whittingham almost had Ohio State beat in last year's Rose Bowl and have won back-to-back Pac-12 Championship games against USC and Oregon. This is a program that gets up for the big matchups.
Not having star tight end Dalton Kincaid is unfortunate for Utah, but if that's what has kept this line under -3.5, we'll happily lay less than a field goal and dare Franklin to lead the Nittany Lions to a rare signature win.
Pick: Utah -2
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
