The Fiesta Bowl (4 p.m. ET) marks the first of New Year's Eve's College Football Playoff semi-finals and is the one game you get to watch without your significant other passive-aggressively tapping his or her watch in your periphery.
TCU acts as this season's "Cinderella," hoping to pull off an upset that would mean the Horned Frogs survive midnight, whereas Michigan goes from scrappy underdog in last season's semi-final to the big bad favorite. How this all shakes down to a valuable bet is a bigger question for Saturday than "When are you getting ready for the party?"
No. 3 TCU vs. No. 2 Michigan (-7.5, 58.5)
Football Outsiders' Efficiency Ranking:
| OFEI | DFEI | |
|---|---|---|
| TCU | 12 | 24 |
| Michigan | 9 | 4 |
TCU's offense vs. Michigan defense
Given how difficult it can be to make one-to-one full-team comparisons in college football, I like to isolate sides of the ball. Per usual, the Big Ten didn't have much in the way of explosive offenses for the Wolverines to measure their defense with. However, the Horned Frogs didn't have a loaded schedule of great defenses that they had to deal with, either.
Iowa State (7th), Kansas State (9th), and Texas (10th) were rated highly in Football Outsiders' adjusted defensive efficiency ratings this season. TCU blew out the Cyclones in the regular season finale in a game that's hard to evaluate, scoring 62 points on less than 400 yards gained.
Arguably the Frogs' biggest win of the season came at Texas. TCU got a 75-yard touchdown run from Kendre Miller and a 31-yard touchdown pass from Max Duggan to Quentin Johnston. They averaged just three yards on the other 59 plays in that game. Big plays aren't something that should be relied upon against Michigan's defense.
Lastly, TCU's gone up against Kansas State twice, gaining 495 and 469 yards. That's the version of the TCU offense that the Frogs will need against Michigan. The Wolverines gave up 492 yards in their win at Columbus, so there's no guarantee that they'll shutdown TCU, but Ohio State boasts the third-ranked offense in the country, and TCU's outside the top 10 in adjusted efficiency.
Michigan offense vs. TCU defense
Unlike the other side of the ball, there are plenty of highly-rated defenses in the Big Ten. The Wolverines had varying degrees of success in moving the ball against four of the top-10 rated defenses:
| OPPONENT (rank) | YARDAGE |
|---|---|
| Iowa (2) | 327 |
| Penn State (5) | 563 |
| Illinois (3) | 376 |
| Ohio State (8) | 530 |
The only teams with a better defensive efficiency than Michigan are Iowa, Illinois, and Georgia, and if you go back to last year's CFP semi-final, the Wolverines were held to 328 yards there by the Bulldogs.
The key is the development of J.J. McCarthy. It's easy to forget that the Wolverines' quarterback has been the main man under center for less than a dozen games. Against a TCU defense that would be the eighth-best in the Big Ten, I expect McCarthy to take advantage of play-action opportunities created by Michigan's offensive line, who will be opening holes for Donovan Edwards early and often.
How to bet the Fiesta Bowl
ESPN's forward-facing ratings project a spread of Michigan -9 and, sure enough, this game opened just under -10. Bettors quickly took the underdog, pulling the line down to -7 before immediate buy-back came on the Wolverines.
Sonny Dykes admits to having the kitchen sink ready for Jim Harbaugh, so the Horned Frogs could hold up with trick plays and creative play-calling for Heisman trophy finalist Duggan, especially in the first half. However, I think there will be an opportunity to take Michigan live or at halftime - betting them at a number under a full touchdown and relying on the Wolverines' size and strength to wear down TCU's relative lack of depth.
Duggan won't be able to take over the game with his legs like he did in the Big 12 Championship - a game that they trailed by significantly in the second half. Plus, Harbaugh has shown an interest in scoring late to cover point spreads this season.
Save some betting capital for an in-game play, but a position on Michigan -7.5 is a fair starting point.
Pick: Michigan -7.5
*Note on hedging TCU futures:
If you followed our preseason preview bets and took a shot with TCU at 200-1 to win the CFP, you were the beneficiary of the undefeated Horned Frogs never having a situation where, if they lost, they were in jeopardy of being knocked out of playoff contention. You haven't needed to hedge your position.
Everyone bets differently and has a personal opinion on hedging, but it would be a shame to not get something out of a really good bet. On the assumption of a $10 bet, here's how I would hedge TCU, who have the longest odds of the four remaining teams.
- TCU 200-1: $10 nets $2000
- Bet $300 on Michigan moneyline (-300) to win $100 for a net profit of $90
If TCU wins, you have an outlay of $310 to win back $2000, for a net of $1690. You can then use that equity to make a bet on, or against TCU, in the National Championship.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
