Before the College Football Playoff semifinals take center stage on New Years' Eve, a pair of New Years' Six games need to be addressed. It'll be the most orange Orange Bowl in Miami as the citrus shades of Tennessee and Clemson go head to head. Then in New Orleans, Alabama is in unfamiliar territory outside the CFP, as it takes on upstart Kansas State, which was predicted to finish in the middle of the Big 12 pack.
Orange Bowl: No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 10 Clemson (-5, 63.5)
The Volunteers' season crashed in a loss to South Carolina in Columbia when star quarterback Hendon Hooker tore his ACL. Had they won that game, they would've found their way into the CFP, having only lost to Georgia. Instead, the Vols' success depends on backup quarterback Joe Milton's ability to work without two NFL-bound wide receivers.
In a weird way, the fact that Cedric Tillman, one of those pass-catchers, missed much of the season means Tennessee's super up-tempo offense won't miss him as much as it will Jalin Hyatt. The Vols have three other receivers with at least 373 yards on the season and a pair of tailbacks with double-digit touchdowns.
The big question is Milton. The Michigan transfer with a huge arm lost the starting job early last season. Milton didn't need to do much in the Vols' season finale, a 56-0 top-down destruction of Vanderbilt. But if he's developed even a rudimentary knowledge of Josh Heupel's offense and gotten the most out of first-team practice reps leading up to this game, then Tennessee provides a similar challenge to Clemson's defense as Wake Forest, Florida State, and the late-season version of South Carolina did.
| OPPONENT | POINTS | YARDS |
|---|---|---|
| @ Wake Forest | 45 | 447 |
| @ Florida State | 28 | 460 |
| vs. South Carolina | 31 | 415 |
The Tigers' have just one defensive back with more than three pass breakups, making their defense one of Clemson's least efficient since 2013, according to Football Outsiders.
Additionally, the DJ Uiagalelei experience is over after he transferred to Oregon State following a tumultuous two seasons as the starting quarterback. Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney loyally stuck with Uiagalelei, even giving him the start in the ACC Championship despite struggles in losses to Notre Dame and South Carolina and inefficiency in close wins. Freshman Cade Klubnik takes over - but if he'd shown enough in practice to usurp Uiagalelei, he surely would've taken over sooner.
Much has been made about the gamebreakers that Tennessee will be missing Friday night, but Clemson doesn't have the NFL-ready offensive weapons that it's grown accustomed to having during its CFP-worthy seasons.
With similar talent matching up even after the opt-outs, I'll rely on an underrated Vols defense and Heupel's offensive infrastructure to approach their FBS-best average of 47 points per game, especially since I haven't been impressed with the Tigers after they lost their top coordinators to Power 5 conference head coaching gigs last offsason.
Pick: Tennessee +5
Sugar Bowl: No. 11 Kansas State vs. No. 5 Alabama (-6.5, 56.5)
The point spread for the Sugar Bowl has been something of a roller coaster. After opening at Alabama -4.5, Kansas State took money, and the line dropped under a field goal.
Somewhere along the way, a narrative gained traction that if Alabama doesn't make the College Football Playoff, it doesn't show up in its consolation bowl game. Well, here are Alabama's non-playoff bowl results under Nick Saban since its first title in 2010:
| SEASON | BOWL | RESULT |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Capital One Bowl | 49-7 win (Michigan State) |
| 2013 | Sugar Bowl | 45-31 loss (Oklahoma) |
| 2019 | Citrus Bowl | 35-16 win (Michigan) |
Just once have the Crimson Tide missed out on the CFP and struggled to be at their best in their bowl game.
Alabama does have a handful of players going into the transfer portal, which happens when your roster is so loaded with potential pro talent that many players realize they're not good enough to get on the field and have to go elsewhere to play.
More importantly, 2021 Heisman winner Bryce Young and fellow potential top 2023 NFL Draft pick, pass-rusher Will Anderson, appear to be playing in this game. As a result, the line shot back up through the opening number and is currently at -6.5.
Kansas State had a great season and is well-coached with some premier talent in Deuce Vaughn and Malik Knowles. But even if the Tide's second team plays most of the game, there'd still be a significant talent gap - particularly in the trenches - between the Wildcats and Alabama's future NFLers.
K-State knocked off TCU, but it faded late in that game with Max Duggan running through the defense. Young's backup, Jalen Milroe, is one of the fastest players in the country. So while we're not getting the best of the number, had we known when this game was announced that Alabama's roster would be largely complete, the line might've been over a touchdown.
Pick: Alabama -6.5
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
