I hope you got your shopping done because it's time to shut it down for a few weeks. Find your favorite holiday treat and call dibs on your spot on the couch because it's time to get enveloped in games that mostly mean next to nothing. That doesn't sound like a great sell, but risking a responsible amount of disposable income on kids that aren't your own is a tradition unlike any other this time of year - just as long as you've already bought little Timmy and Janey everything on their list.
Cure Bowl: No. 22 UTSA vs. No. 23 Troy (-2, 55.5)
As much as we'd like to have action on the first bowl game of the year, Miami (Ohio) and UAB will have to be relegated to mild interest in confidence pools. The better bet comes in the second game on Friday between a pair of ranked teams.
Since opening, the line has swung from UTSA as the favorite to Troy. The Roadrunners' offense is rated 24th, according to Football Outsiders, but that's built against opponents in Conference USA, which has just one team with defensive efficiency ranked in the top half of the country. The Trojans' defense rates in the same national echelon as programs like Cincinnati, Florida State, and Notre Dame.
Since a season-opening loss against Ole Miss, Troy's only defeat for the rest of the campaign came on a Hail Mary to Appalachian State. The one C-USA defense that finished in the top 70? Western Kentucky, who Troy beat on the road in a non-conference crossover midseason.
UTSA edged that WKU team at home - thematic of a season where they won five games against lesser opponents by one score. Troy averaged 40+ points in its final three games, so expect the Trojans to score frequently while holding up on defense against sixth-year Roadrunners QB Frank Harris.
Pick: Troy -2
Fenway Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Louisville (-1, 41.5)
A raucous Saturday slate starts with a fun one. Fenway Park's confined space means these two teams will be crammed onto the same side of the field, which would make things easier for Scott Satterfield, who left Louisville to become Cincinnati's head coach. He claims he's not involved in preparing for this game, but that's hard to believe. There's no preparation needed for Malik Cunningham, however, as the Cardinals signal-caller has opted out.
In a battle between two backup quarterbacks, Louisville's Brock Domann played enough this year for us to know that he's not the option of the future. Cincinnati has time to focus on getting sophomore Evan Prater more ready for next season, and he'll use his legs to help the Bearcats to the win.
Pick: Cincinnati +1
Las Vegas Bowl: Florida vs. No. 17 Oregon St. (-10, 53.5)
My power ratings made Oregon State a 3-point favorite in this game. Then a handful of Florida players opted out - including star quarterback Anthony Richardson - moving the line from a 6-point open all the way to double digits in favor of the Beavers. That's gone too far in a game where the Gators may still have the better talent. Oregon State laid an egg in a bowl game they were supposed to be excited about last season, so I'm not looking to back them for a big win against Billy Napier, who's gotten his team to a bowl game in his first year.
Both teams want to run the ball repeatedly. Oregon State came back against Oregon almost entirely on the ground, and the Gators still have quality tailbacks in Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne. At +10, Florida's active players keep this one close.
Pick: Florida +10
New Mexico Bowl: BYU vs. SMU (-5, 64.5)
This game has moved from BYU as the favorite to SMU almost up a touchdown. However, the Mustangs don't have the defense to support laying this many points against the Cougars. BYU quarterback Jaren Hall's status is leading this line to move. But even if he's out, I expect Kilani Sitake to have his team interested enough in winning this game - the Cougars have either won comfortably or lost close in their bowl games under Sitake. The word out of Dallas is that SMU thinks of this game as more of a developmental opportunity.
Pick: BYU +5
Myrtle Beach Bowl: UConn vs. Marshall (-10, 40.5)
In case you thought you could do something on Monday afternoon - nope, there's a bowl game on!
The matchup isn't ideal for an outright upset, as Jim Mora Jr. wants UConn to run the ball, but Marshall's pretty good at stopping the ground game. However, we're getting 10 points with a Huskies team that we believe is excited to play in a postseason contest. Marshall might just be content with the trip to Myrtle Beach, uninterested in dominating a game on a field they may visit in-conference when they play Coastal Carolina next year.
Pick: UConn +10
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
