Call it sour grapes if you want (welcome to being a sports bettor), but our lone loss against the spread in this space last week came from a Heisman favorite not playing up to the hype.
Sure, the Buckeyes' defense could have allowed fewer points to Penn State, but it also scored seven and turned the Nittany Lions over four times. C.J. Stroud came into the game as the odds-on Heisman favorite, but thankfully that's not the case anymore. It's easy to look at the boxscore to rate Stroud, but watching him play, you see delay-of-game penalties, lapses in awareness (like taking a sack that let time run out in the first half), and other struggles when forced to make decisions on his own. On Saturday, you also would have seen Ohio State's running game overpower Penn State's defense as Buckeyes pass-catchers also excelled. Stroud is the beneficiary of a tried and true offensive system, and he's arguably surrounded by the best talent in the country this season.
Meanwhile, Hendon Hooker became the new Heisman odds front-runner as the Volunteers covered comfortably - one of four winners from last week's early look at the big games. Tennessee features again in what's not just the game of the week, but the game of the year.
No. 2 Tennessee @ No. 1 Georgia (-8, 66)
We enter every season assuming that Georgia and Alabama are destined to meet in the SEC title game, but what this bet presupposes is: maybe they're not? That matchup has only happened in two of the last five seasons, and Tennessee might be poised to play the role of LSU in 2019, complete with a hot offensive system controlled by an older-than-usual veteran quarterback.
Georgia's defense is rated first in Football Outsiders' DFEI, but that's relative to other teams this season. Comparing it to last year's Bulldogs is unfair - that unit was generational - but giving up 20 points to Missouri, Kent State, and Florida is somewhat concerning, since no one on Georgia's SEC slate compares to what Hooker and the Volunteers bring.
Meanwhile, the Volunteers have faced the second (Alabama), 15th (Kentucky), and 19th (LSU) defenses in DFEI. Here's how they've fared:
| GAME | YARDS | POINTS |
|---|---|---|
| @ LSU | 502 | 40 |
| vs. Alabama | 567 | 52 |
| vs. Kentucky | 422 | 44 |
Maybe Georgia's defense is substantially better than those of Tennessee's top opponents, but this year's edition doesn't seem like it. It's certainly not convincing enough to pass up more than a touchdown's worth of points while we can get it.
Line outlook: Tennessee +8.5
Texas @ No. 13 Kansas State (+2.5, 55)
Speaking of taking the points, last week we dug in on our stance that, if starting quarterback Adrian Martinez couldn't go, Will Howard was good enough to beat Oklahoma State. And boy, did Kansas State beat the Cowboys. Things won't be so easy this week, but the same premise applies with the Wildcats as home underdogs to Texas - which is still dining out on almost beating Alabama and only has one road win (over a year ago) during Steve Sarkisian's tenure.
This line has come off of the key number of +3, but with +2 becoming a relevant number given the new overtime rules, it's worth scooping up K-State now.
Line outlook: Kansas State +2.5
No. 6 Alabama @ No. 15 LSU (+13, 58)
Brian Kelly hasn't had a ton of success against Nick Saban historically, but those games were neutral-site matchups with over a month worth of prep for college football's coaching GOAT. Meanwhile, Saban's teams haven't had much trouble with the dreaded night games in Death Valley, but Kelly probably didn't have this depth of talent to work with at Notre Dame.
I would be more apt to take the points because of Jayden Daniels' improvement this season, but despite a decent DFEI rating, I'm worried about LSU's defense after the Tigers got rolled by Tennessee. With the line slowly moving up this week, I'd need a full two touchdowns to jump on LSU.
Line outlook: Wait to buy at LSU +14
No. 5 Clemson @ Notre Dame (+3.5, 48)
No one liked how DJ Uiagalelei looked against Syracuse, but we won't overreact to one weird game - especially since he's the rare quarterback who has positive experience at Notre Dame Stadium and gets a second go-round. Uiagalelei threw for 439 passing yards in 2020 and didn't even contribute on the ground.
Meanwhile, the Irish pushed Syracuse around last week, making better use of their physical advantage than Clemson did. Since they don't have that edge here, they'll need something from Drew Pyne - and I don't believe he can handle the Tigers' defense.
After a week off to tighten things up, the Tigers know this is their last legitimate regular-season hurdle to the College Football Playoff. They'll rely on their experience to vanquish Notre Dame somewhat comfortably.
Line outlook: Shop for -3, but bet Clemson up to -4 before kickoff
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
