Between Seasons 3 and 4 of "Friday Night Lights," coach Eric Taylor's goals changed drastically as he went from coaching the championship-contending Dillon Panthers to building the East Dillon Lions from scratch. College football isn't much different, as some teams know a championship isn't in the cards before the first kickoff. What every school can play for, though, is the end-of-season trip that bowl game qualification provides.
Six victories are required to gain bowl eligibility, but like East Dillon, just because you want to get six wins doesn't mean you get six wins. These are the teams lined at four wins or fewer. The West Dillon Panthers would be lined like the better teams in college football, with a win total indicating they are far too good to just aim for bowl eligibility's invisible line of contentment.
Luckily, without knowing anything about any of the 131 teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS), oddsmakers are telling us who should be lingering in the meaty part of the curve - not showing off, not falling behind.
The theory: These teams have bowl goals and are capable of achieving them while not being expected to contend for a national championship - in some cases, not even a conference title - and blindly betting over on the 5.5-win teams and under on the 6.5-win ones will typically have you come out ahead.
The following chart shows the Power 5 programs with win totals lined around six and the price on their corresponding result of the bet that wins if they finish on six victories.
| TEAM | WIN TOTAL | BET (ODDS) | LAST GAME (*RIVAL) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona State | 6 | Under (-125) | at Arizona* |
| Arkansas State | 5 | Over (+115) | vs. Troy |
| Auburn | 6.5 | Under (-160) | at Alabama* |
| Ball State | 5.5 | Over (+130) | at Miami (OH) |
| Boston College | 6.5 | Under (-135) | vs. Syracuse |
| Buffalo | 5.5 | Over (+100) | vs. Kent St. |
| California | 5.5 | Over (+100) | vs. UCLA |
| Colorado State | 5.5 | Under (+125) | vs. New Mexico |
| East Carolina | 6.5 | Under (-140) | at Temple |
| Eastern Michigan | 6.5 | Under (-170) | vs. Central Michigan |
| Florida | 7 | Under (+105) | at Florida St.* |
| Florida Atlantic | 5.5 | Over (-170) | vs. Western Kentucky |
| Florida State | 6.5 | Under (+115) | vs. Florida* |
| Iowa State | 6.5 | Under (-110) | at TCU |
| Kansas State | 6.5 | Under (+145) | vs. Kansas* |
| Kent State | 5 | Over (-145) | at Buffalo |
| Liberty | 6.5 | Under (+145) | vs. New Mexico St. |
| Louisville | 6.5 | Under (-105) | at Kentucky* |
| Marshall | 7 | Under (+120) | Georgia St. |
| Maryland | 6 | Over (+100) | vs. Rutgers |
| Miami (OH) | 6.5 | Under (+115) | vs. Ball St. |
| Middle Tennessee | 5.5 | Over (-105) | at FIU |
| Mississippi State | 6.5 | Under (+105) | at Ole Miss* |
| Missouri | 5.5 | Over (+115) | vs. Arkansas* |
| North Texas | 6.5 | Under (-120) | vs. Rice |
| Northern Illinois | 6.5 | Under (+135) | vs. Akron |
| Ohio | 5.5 | Over (-110) | vs. Bowling Green |
| Oregon State | 6.5 | Under (-135) | vs. Oregon* |
| San Jose State | 6.5 | Under (-130) | vs. Hawaii |
| South Alabama | 5.5 | Over (-125) | vs. Old Dominion |
| South Carolina | 6 | Under (+135) | at Clemson* |
| Southern Mississippi | 5 | Over (-140) | at UL-Monroe |
| Syracuse | 5 | Over (+110) | at Boston College |
| TCU | 6.5 | Under (+120) | vs. Iowa St. |
| Texas Tech | 5.5 | Over (-110) | vs. Oklahoma |
| Troy | 6.5 | Under (-120) | at Arkansas St. |
| Tulane | 6 | Over (+100) | at Cincinnati |
| Tulsa | 6 | Under (-135) | at Houston |
| UTEP | 5.5 | Over (-125) | at UTSA |
| Virginia Tech | 6.5 | Under (-145) | vs. Virginia* |
| Washington State | 5.5 | Over (+105) | vs. Washington* |
| Wake Forest | 6.5 | Under (+135) | at Duke |
| Western Michigan | 6.5 | Under (-155) | vs. Toledo |
| West Virginia | 5.5 | Over (-125) | at Oklahoma St. |
| Wyoming | 5 | Over (+115) | at Fresno St. |
We've put an asterisk on teams whose final game comes against their biggest rivals; the thinking being that, whether each team is under 6.5 or an over 5.5 target, it will still have highly competitive regular-season finales that could mean more than just bowl eligibility.
For example, Oregon State might get to six wins before it hosts Oregon in the Civil War, but just because the Beavers will be going "bowling" doesn't mean they won't try to go Duck hunting and go over 6.5 wins with a home upset. Elsewhere in the Pac-12, Washington State might come into the Apple Cup desperate for a sixth win, but Washington will be just as amped for revenge.
The Group of 5 teams on the list are another matter. Many have numerous nonconference games with Power-5 opponents, so their six wins may be expected in-conference. As such, they might be in contention for a conference title late in the season and would be dangerously motivated to get a seventh win in late November. Any team that's a top-five choice to win its conference should be removed from the list.
Taking those factors into account, here are the teams you can blindly back to finish with exactly six wins this season, with the obvious cushion that winning overs can go way over with a surprisingly good year and winning unders can go way under in a disappointing season.
Win total bets
| TEAM | WIN TOTAL | BET (ODDS) |
|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State | 5 | Over (+115) |
| Auburn | 6.5 | Under (-160) |
| Ball State | 5.5 | Over (+130) |
| Boston College | 6.5 | Under (-135) |
| Buffalo | 5.5 | Over (+100) |
| California | 5.5 | Over (+100) |
| Colorado State | 5.5 | Over (-145) |
| East Carolina | 6.5 | Under (-140) |
| Iowa State | 6.5 | Under (-110) |
| Liberty | 6.5 | Under (+145) |
| Maryland | 6 | Over (+100) |
| North Texas | 6.5 | Under (-120) |
| Ohio | 5.5 | Over (-110) |
| San Jose State | 6.5 | Under (-130) |
| South Alabama | 5.5 | Over (-125) |
| Southern Mississippi | 5 | Over (-140) |
| Syracuse | 5 | Over (+110) |
| TCU | 6.5 | Under (+120) |
| Texas Tech | 5.5 | Over (-110) |
| Troy | 6.5 | Under (-120) |
| Tulane | 6 | Over (+100) |
| Tulsa | 6 | Under (-135) |
| UTEP | 5.5 | Over (-125) |
| Wake Forest | 6.5 | Under (+135) |
| West Virginia | 5.5 | Over (-125) |
| Wyoming | 5 | Over (+115) |
The only under I'd skip is TCU since we explained we're high on the Horned Frogs this season in the Big 12 season preview. Also, we're unconcerned with Auburn's rivalry game because an almost-assured loss in the Iron Bowl is already factored into the win total by oddsmakers.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
