In framing the College Football Playoff betting market, we need to start with a fair assumption: Three of the four spots in the semifinals are spoken for.
Alabama is fully reloaded, and two losses seem improbable barring some significant injuries. Georgia may not be as good as last year, but its schedule makes it hard to imagine it won't meet the Crimson Tide in the SEC title game in Atlanta. That game might weed out one of the two teams, as it has in the past, but it also might just open up a spot for another SEC team.
Ohio State, available in the market for as long as +440, is my pick to win the national title. If it fails to make the College Football Playoff, it'll likely be due to another upset at the hands of Michigan, at which point the Wolverines would likely claim that spot in the semis anyway.
That leaves the need for a fourth team - a spot that Clemson laid claim to for six straight years only to be usurped by Georgia as the presumptive third seed.
Odds to make the College Football Playoff
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Ohio State | -260 |
| Alabama | -260 |
| Georgia | -115 |
| Clemson | +150 |
| USC | +400 |
| Utah | +425 |
| Oklahoma | +450 |
| Michigan | +475 |
| Texas A&M | +700 |
| Texas | +800 |
| Notre Dame | +1000 |
| Wisconsin | +1000 |
| Oregon | +1000 |
| Miami | +1300 |
| North Carolina State | +1400 |
| Oklahoma State | +1400 |
| Cincinnati | +1500 |
* Odds via theScore Bet
The Tigers are the fourth choice, but at +150 for a team with new coordinators on both offense and defense - along with a quarterback in D.J. Uiagalelei who struggled last season - there's just no value on Clemson.
This means there may be an opportunity to find a long shot to fill out the CFP semifinals - a role teams like Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Washington, Michigan State, and Oregon have filled since the inaugural tournament in 2014-15.
Best bets
Notre Dame (+1000)
The Fighting Irish are going to lose to Ohio State in Week 1, but if they can keep the score reasonable, there's just enough meat left on the metaphorical bone of their schedule for them to run the table and get heavy consideration. College football politics being what they are, the CFP committee has already shown that it'll lean toward including Notre Dame rather than leaving it out.
There's an added element of value from Notre Dame's matchup with Clemson in South Bend, since a win for the Irish - in a game expected to be lined around pick'em - would directly harm the Tigers' prospects.
Oregon (+1000)
Like Notre Dame, the Ducks will likely start their season with a loss in a really tough non-conference game - in this case, against Georgia in Atlanta. The good news, however, is that they won this type of game last year, toppling the Buckeyes in Columbus.
Even if Oregon doesn't knock off the Bulldogs to claim a win that'd launch it into CFP contention, it still has the schedule to go 12-1 and claim the Pac-12 championship. Considering they're deemed equals to Utah and USC in the conference title market, the Ducks shouldn't be that far behind those two teams on the oddsboard for this market.
Off the board
Most sportsbooks haven't posted odds for teams beyond those listed above. A few schools that have similar odds to Cincinnati's last year aren't properly reflected in the national championship markets.
Mississippi State (national champion: +20000)
I know this sounds crazy since Mike Leach's teams haven't been known for season-long consistency, but he does have 11-win seasons at each of his previous stops. If Will Rogers takes the Bulldogs' offense to the next level to shock Georgia at home, even a loss to Alabama could allow "Hail State" to avoid the SEC title game while posting a nice 11-1 resume with a handful of hypothetical wins over SEC foes.
TCU (national champion: +20000)
The Horned Frogs are a sleeper for the Big 12 championship but, with a soft non-conference schedule, probably need to go undefeated to make the College Football Playoff. With their toughest road game at a Baylor team that we have marginal expectations for, that's not out of the realm of possibility.
Like Mississippi State, a national title bet on TCU at 200-1 could act as a bet to make the CFP, with a subsequent hedge plan if it finds its way into the coveted fourth seed.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
