With name, image, and likeness rights evolving the landscape of college football, there has been some jostling on the national title odds. The reality is the four teams that will be awarded a spot in the College Football Playoff semifinals will likely fall into the category of "the more things change, the more they stay the same."
Cincinnati showed last year there is room for the little guy, and Michigan showed there's room for other first-timers. The winner is likely coming from the top three on the board, but there's at least room for maneuvering if you can catch lightning in a bottle with a long shot.
National championship odds
| TEAM | ODDS | ODDS ON 1/11 |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | +150 | +200 |
| Ohio State | +250 | +800 |
| Georgia | +400 | +200 |
| Clemson | +1200 | +1000 |
| Texas A&M | +2000 | +4000 |
| USC | +3000 | +8000 |
| Oklahoma | +3300 | +4000 |
| Notre Dame | +5000 | +8000 |
| Michigan | +5000 | +4000 |
| Oregon | +5000 | +4000 |
| Florida | +6600 | +4000 |
| Penn State | +5000 | +6000 |
| Wisconsin | +5000 | +8000 |
| Texas | +5000 | +10000 |
| Utah | +5000 | +20000 |
| Baylor | +6600 | +17000 |
| Oklahoma St. | +6600 | +17000 |
| Miami | +8000 | +6000 |
| LSU | +8000 | +15000 |
| Arkansas | +10000 | +15000 |
*All other teams not listed with odds 100-1 or longer
The Buckeyes are the big mover at the top. They didn't lose much to the NFL draft beyond a pair of wide receivers. As the Rose Bowl showed, C.J. Stroud will have ample options. Meanwhile, the draft was a Westminster-like parade of Georgia Bulldogs, so while they're still loaded with talent, the holes need to be filled.
Whether it was another recruiting class that got the attention of Nick Saban or Jimbo Fisher's defensive rant about his former boss, bettors love Texas A&M. They also love USC, who secured Lincoln Riley's former Oklahoma quarterback, Caleb Williams. The program was priced at 80-1 back in January.
The win probability increase for those teams had to come from somewhere, so Michigan, Oregon, Florida, and Miami's odds got longer, while North Carolina fell out of the top 20 entirely.
Even though Oklahoma saw a modest shortening in its odds, it's possible the market sees a vulnerability atop the Big 12. Texas, Baylor, and Oklahoma State are given better than a puncher's chance after seeing spring ball.
What to look for
Given that there are 124 FBS teams, there are around 100 schools that have odds to win the title but have no chance of doing so. If you're planning on betting a long shot with an eye on hedging once they get to the CFP, you'll need to go deep down the board as that team will likely be a two-three touchdown underdog in the semifinals.
Underrated talent
LSU saw their odds shorten once it was realized Death Valley will still be the destination for their usual talent pipeline under Brian Kelly. The same goes for Texas, as Quinn Ewers' return to the Lone Star State has Longhorns fans salivating.
One team listed at longer than 100-1 is the Auburn Tigers (150-1). The Bryan Harsin era got off to an ominous start, but they still have a ton of talent and gave Alabama everything they could handle at the end of last season.
Experience
Cincinnati wasn't the most talented group in the country last season - not even top four. However, they developed much of the talent they built up, and their experience allowed them to play better than the sum of their parts. Utah might be that team this year, as Kyle Whittingham has that program humming and their odds reflect that.
Non-conference marquee matchup
Without a strong non-conference schedule, there's no way to get on the committee's radar, and even an undefeated season will max out with a New Year's Six bowl berth at best. The Bearcats beat Indiana and Notre Dame last year to get top-10 recognition. This season is loaded with fresh, juicy September matchups.
Cincinnati takes on Arkansas, Penn State has a rematch at Auburn, Utah visits Florida, Florida State and LSU have a prime-time showdown, and Miami goes to College Station.
Winnable Power Conference
With all due respect to what Cincinnati accomplished, there are still five power conferences vying for four spots in the CFP. You need to find a team with a legitimate chance to win its conference. The Big 12 is wide-open, the Pac-12 is always a sweepstake, and last year showed that Clemson can be toppled in the ACC.
UCLA (+15000) doesn't have the non-conference schedule but does have a veteran group returning that features Dorian Thompson-Robinson running Chip Kelly's offense. That makes them a sleeper candidate to run the table in the Pac-12, and an undefeated power conference winner might get in on principle alone. Especially since that would mean they beat Oregon, USC, and Utah along the way.
N.C. State has moved from 230-1 to 150-1 and has all the pieces to beat Clemson again this season. With all the experience, and none of the non-conference schedule strength, they'll need to win at the other Death Valley - plus all their other games - to get into the conversation come December.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
