While you'd like to avoid judging the next 365 days by what happens in the first of what will be many bets in the upcoming calendar year, that's not how the superstitious mind of a bettor works, is it?
We do need to look back at 2021, though, knowing we did our work weeks ago to give us the best chance for success to start 2022. Both of these games saw the favorite flip from the opening line, as we predicted.
Outback Bowl: Penn State vs. Arkansas (-2.5, 48.5)
Line history
It took longer than we thought it would, but that only gave bettors more time to grab Arkansas as underdogs. The market opened the Razorbacks as 4-point 'dogs, and only recently did they become favorites. That's because Penn State took way too long to admit Jahan Dotson would be opting out of the Outback Bowl. The total was as low as 45.5 but has risen despite the key offensive opt-outs at wide receiver for both teams.
On the field
Obviously, Arkansas +4, or anything with a plus associated with it, looks like a great bet in retrospect. No wide receiver means as much to their team's efficiency as Dotson does to the Nittany Lions, who've struggled to move the ball at times this season, even with him playing.
As troublesome as it will be for Penn State's offense, the defense has seen four starters opt out as well. Arkansas had its own star receiver opt out when Treylon Burks announced he was focusing on the NFL draft weeks ago. However, the Hogs can still run the football with Trelon Smith and Rocket Sanders for offensive success, and Penn State will be vulnerable.
While the value that existed for weeks is now gone, this game means much more to Arkansas and its faithful. It's the program's first bowl since 2016, so energy and anticipation are high. I also trust K.J. Jefferson more than I do Sean Clifford. Anything under a field goal is still worth a bet, but we'll hope it's not a sign of things to come and the new year doesn't start with a beat on a bad number.
Pick: Arkansas -2.5
Citrus Bowl: Iowa vs. Kentucky (-3, 44)
Line history
It wasn't as obvious that Kentucky should be the favorite in this game, but when Iowa opened -1.5 a day after the Hawkeyes got mauled by Michigan in the Big Ten Championship, a flip seemed inevitable. Sure enough, the Wildcats have now been deemed a full field goal better than Iowa. The total has barely moved off 44, with slight movement a half-point to either side.
On the field
This is the first Kentucky team in years that's had a reliable, multi-dimensional offense. It's in large part thanks to a pair of Big Ten transfers that brought explosiveness with them to Lexington. Penn State transfer Will Levis has shown more throwing ability than most might've thought, but it helps when Nebraska transfer Wan'Dale Robinson is out there eluding defenders with his route running.
Iowa's defense took it on the chin against the Wolverines, but Kirk Ferentz will have things tightened up for the Wildcats. The big issue is on offense, as this group is one of the worst in the Power Five. Yet this team has managed to win games anyway. That's the wonder that is Iowa football. The Hawkeyes convert turnovers into points and make big special teams plays that go unnoticed by the box score.
Unlike the Penn State opt-out subterfuge, there are no secrets here. Tyler Goodson is the lone opt-out for Iowa, and that's been reflected in the line. I made the Wildcats a -3 favorite, so if you have Kentucky at -1 or better from early in the bowl betting process, you can ride with that. Otherwise, it's best to focus on the bigger games of the day.
Pick: Pass at current number (Kentucky -1 in pool play)
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
