We're getting into the thick of it now. Sure, there have been other days with afternoon games and a Saturday with six of them, but Tuesday marks the unofficial heart of bowl season. Throw on the sweatpants, make a buffet of leftover holiday treats, and let's see if we can find a few winners for Tuesday.
Birmingham Bowl: Houston vs. Auburn (-2.5, 51.5)
Line history
Auburn opened as a short favorite, and that continues to be the case. The total has moved up a point from the opening number of 50.5.
On the field
Houston comes in with a head coach who doesn't seem that engaged in the bowl process. With a 1-7 ATS record in bowl games, Dana Holgorsen may have some other goals when it comes to college football's exhibition-like season. Whether it's trying something different or giving young players more playing time than usual, it doesn't mean that the Cougars are unprepared or unmotivated, but that's not out of the realm of possibility here either.
The Cougars' strong defense was somewhat exposed in the AAC title game against Cincinnati, and while the Tigers don't have the same resume or record as the Bearcats, they're still a top SEC team talent-wise.
Auburn's in its first year under Bryan Harsin, who came from a Boise State program that emphasized finishing seasons strong. Even though Bo Nix is on his way to Oregon, running back Tank Bigsby has eschewed the portal and top draft prospect Smoke Monday is in for his last game as a Tiger. Like they did against Alabama, the Tigers can do enough on offense and rely on their defense to shut down Clayton Tune and avoid embarrassment for the SEC.
Pick: Auburn -2.5
First Responder Bowl: Air Force vs. Louisville (-1, 55.5)
Line history
This game made a quick move to Air Force as the favorite but flipped back to where it opened with Louisville -1. The total has barely moved, going from 55 to 55.5.
On the field
If Scott Satterfield has the Cardinals ready to go, this game might not end up being nearly as close as the line indicates. Or perhaps it won't be as close the other way if Louisville isn't prepared to defend the triple option.
Air Force has found itself in a couple of shootouts this season when it's played the better Mountain West Conference quarterbacks in Utah State and Nevada. That undermines the Falcons' 23rd-ranked defense, per ESPN's SP+.
Giving up 49 and 39 points against Logan Bonner and Carson Strong, respectively, is one thing. Facing an offense led by 2022 Heisman candidate Malik Cunningham is another. Satterfield has a 3-1 bowl record ATS, so there are signs that he can get his team ready. A blowout loss to in-state rival Kentucky should have the Cardinals' attention as well.
Pick: Louisville -1
Liberty Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Mississippi St. (-9.5, 59)
Line history
After opening -9, Texas Tech money saw the line fall to -8.5, but now we're back a touch under 10. The total has dropped a point over the last three weeks after opening at 60.
On the field
Speaking of bad bowl records, Mike Leach is 3-7 ATS. But a win in his Mississippi State debut last season gave him leeway with those ringing cowbells. The reason Leach's teams struggle in the postseason is that his Air Raid offense needs rhythm and repetition, and a break in the schedule isn't ideal for that. While the Bulldogs may win this game, Texas Tech is capable and willing to keep it competitive.
Pick: Texas Tech +9.5
Holiday Bowl: UCLA vs. NC St. (-1, 59.5)
Line history
This game flipped back and forth on bowl game selection Sunday, as both teams were favored at various points that night. NC State opened -3, but early Bruins betting quickly flipped UCLA to the favorite. Since then, this game has settled on the Wolfpack being slight favorites. The total has been less exciting, sitting where it opened at 59.5.
On the field
For my money, the Wolfpack had the best defense in the ACC, even if Clemson alumni and the advanced metrics might disagree. Either way, NC State will provide the most resistance that UCLA has faced this season.
Stopping Dorian Thompson-Robinson and the UCLA run game is no easy task. But Dave Doeren has his program on the way up, and a 5-2 bowl spread record indicates his interest in being ready for a prime-time matchup. The Bruins are playing close to home, but that might not be a good thing if they consider the trip down the I-5 to San Diego an afterthought to their season.
Pick: NC State -1
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: West Virginia vs. Minnesota (-4.5, 45)
Line history
Minnesota opened as a 7-point favorite, but that quickly drifted to -3.5 until it was leaked that West Virginia running back Leddie Brown won't play. The total has been steady after opening 44.5.
On the field
On the surface, -5 still seems too high, but we already know we're going to get a steady diet of "row the boat" from P.J. Fleck, Tanner Morgan, and the rest of the Gophers. They will care about this game, which is a big deal considering the Scottsdale, Arizona, nightlife can distract some visitors.
Minnesota has shown up defensively over the last month of the season, and it won't take much for them to get the Mountaineers off the field, especially since West Virginia's best weapon on offense has bowed out.
With the line sitting in its own desert between -3 and -6, plus too much uncertainty, you could probably shut it down early on Tuesday. After all, it's going to be a long week.
Pick: Pass, Minnesota in pool play
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
