The box score indicates we deserved better last week with a 6.5-point underdog in Louisiana Tech, and our 10.5-point underdog Texas State losing by 12 was probably the worst result possible given the game script. Just like that, our usual 5-2 day in the "Saturday Seven" ends 3-4, and we dip below 60% (32-23-1) for the first time in a while.
Texas at No. 16 Baylor (-3, 61.5)
I don't know how Texas is getting a full three points against Baylor, but here we are. This is the low point in the market for the Longhorns after they coughed up back-to-back games against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. While those second halves were rough, the main takeaway is the big leads Texas built.
Baylor comes in with the number next to its name, but we may be getting a little too excited about wins over BYU and Iowa State back in September. The Bears' offense was controlled at Oklahoma State, and though Texas' defense isn't on the Cowboys' level, the Longhorns' offense should be able to keep pace, scoring around 30 points itself.
Pick: Texas +3
No. 22 Iowa State at West Virginia (+7, 48.5)
Staying in the Big 12, we'll fade another favorite and take West Virginia to give Iowa State issues in Morgantown. Last week's handling of TCU on the road broke a three-game losing streak and included the right amount of Garrett Greene under center (one big run), Leddie Brown carries (a ton), and faith in Jarret Doege.
Iowa State had a big win of its own by edging Oklahoma State - taking back control of its own destiny in the conference - but this game can sneak up on a team with a trip to Austin next week. Matt Campbell's conservative handling of the offense will let this contest stay closer than the full touchdown offered.
Pick: West Virginia +7
Washington State at Arizona State (-16, 53)
Just call me "Pac-12 Matty." We cashed with a pair of Pacific picks last week, and we've ridden a Washington State cover wave. After a close loss, the Cougars head out on the road against Arizona State, which might be like Mikey from "Swingers" - the Sun Devils have these fangs and these claws, but they just don't know what to do with them. Arizona State had the talent to be the breakout team in the conference, but give us Jayden de Laura over two touchdowns and we'll take our chances.
Pick: Washington State +16
Purdue at Nebraska (-7.5, 52)
It's possible Nebraska wins comfortably, but it's not really the Cornhuskers' thing. Their claim to credibility is based on an ability to hang in there with better opponents in a losing cause. Adrian Martinez's turnovers aren't waning, and that will always keep the other team in it, even if Nebraska is better on paper.
Purdue came off a big upset over Iowa just to get dragged around by Wisconsin last week, in a way that's just not possible in Lincoln. The Boilermakers can make enough big plays to win.
Pick: Purdue +7.5
Minnesota at Northwestern (+7.5, 43)
Minnesota clipped Nebraska last week at home, but now it's walking right into the Pat Fitzgerald Zone. A short-to-medium home underdog is the peak Northwestern spot. We caught one a few weeks back with Rutgers, and considering the key players Minnesota has lost, this isn't a good enough team to expect a win by a large margin. I'm unconcerned by the score last week in Ann Arbor: the Wildcats were down just three at halftime, and they're live to take this one.
Pick: Northwestern +7.5
Kansas a No. 15 Oklahoma State (-30, 54.5)
Can you believe we're actually backing Kansas?
It sounds unbelievable, but the 30 points we're getting here are much like when a pillowcase is emptied on Halloween night: too much candy. Maybe last week was a fluke and we missed out on the one chance to get a winner with the Jayhawks, but this is a tough spot for Oklahoma State after it took its first loss.
Jason Bean continues to improve under Lance Leipold, and the first-year coach got some defensive buy-in to shut out the Sooners in the first half last week. That makes me interested in Kansas against a not-so-explosive Oklahoma State offense - particularly when we're getting more than four touchdowns.
Pick: Kansas +30
Boise State at Colorado State (+2.5, 51.5)
While the previous game might put the horror in "The Rocky Horror Picture Show," this features the mountain range of the same name. Late-night viewings of the 1975 musical comedy aren't really my thing, but getting points with the better offense, better defense, and team playing at home certainly is right up my alley.
Colorado State botched its game last week at Utah State, and the start of the season wasn't ideal for Steve Addazio, but the Rams average more total yards on offense (double the rush yards) and fewer total yards on defense (half the rush yards).
Boise State is still getting credit for the brand, and we'll keep the secret that the program isn't what it once was.
Pick: Colorado State +2.5
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
