CFB Week 5: How to bet a trio of top-12 matchups

Beware of the boring week.

If you look at the college slate and don't think there's much to get excited about, then you can assume some surprising upsets are on the way. That was the case in Week 4 when we had only three games circled on the calendar. Luckily, we were all over North Carolina State upsetting Clemson.

In Week 5, we have more than a few to choose from. The schedule is loaded with goodies thanks to a couple of those Week 4 upsets.

No. 8 Arkansas at No. 2 Georgia (-18.5, 49)

One of the upsets came in Dallas, where Arkansas took care of Texas A&M quite convincingly. Now, the Razorbacks have leapfrogged the Aggies as the second-ranked team in the SEC West.

Georgia's defense gets its stiffest test of the season, as it now seems Arkansas has more game-breaking talent than the Bulldogs' season-opening opponent, Clemson, does.

For its part, Arkansas' defense has put a hurt on two Lonestar State foes, shutting down the Aggies last week and forcing Texas to re-evaluate its quarterback situation after the trip to Fayetteville.

While this latest test pulls the Razorbacks between the hedges for their most raucous enemy environment yet, this line is too high for a team that has the speed to spring a big play and a defense to slow down any opponent.

Pick: Arkansas +18.5

No. 7 Cincinnati at No. 9 Notre Dame (+2.5, 50.5)

An undefeated Notre Dame is a home underdog to Cincinnati. That's a sentence I never thought I'd write.

For those of us sitting on Desmond Ridder Heisman tickets, this is the show-out game we've had circled on the calendar all season. It's time to find out whether Ridder can have the type of head-turning performance that makes him the MVP rather than just a stat-sheet stuffer.

The Fighting Irish have been only barely getting by on the way to 4-0, which is why the shine of the Golden Dome isn't enough to make them the favorites here. Last week's high-profile win over Wisconsin included three outlier touchdowns to make the score appear more impressive in a game they were still trailing in the fourth quarter.

Though I don't want to lay points here, I think Cincinnati pulls off a program-changing win, and Ridder finds himself firmly in the Heisman hype.

Pick: Cincinnati ML -125

No. 12 Mississippi at No. 1 Alabama (-14.5, 79.5)

There was controversy in the oddsmaking world on Sunday when Alabama opened as a 20-point favorite against Heisman-contender Matt Corral and Ole Miss. The public was appalled that the Crimson Tide were favored by so much. Since then, the number dropped down to Alabama -14.5, with the expectation of a shootout.

Nick Saban faces his former offensive coordinator, Lane Kiffin, and that familiarity along with a little extra motivation to halt Corral's Heisman candidacy should have Alabama's full attention. In a rare situation which the market might be relatively "low Tide," I'll try Alabama here to send a message to the SEC.

Pick: Alabama -14.5

No. 10 Florida at Kentucky (+8.5, 55)

This game gets the nod over a couple of its SEC compatriots because the only loss either team has is a two-point defeat to Alabama, which means an upset by unranked Kentucky will be massive.

As much as I'd like to back the Wildcats here with their new-look offense, they haven't shown enough this season in their four wins to make me think they can hang with Flordia, which is still holstering "AR-15," Anthony Richardson, should it need a spark. Plus, Dan Mullen has shown a propensity for knowing exactly what the spread is in games when the Gators are favored, so faders must proceed with caution.

Pick: Florida -8.5

Arizona State at No. 20 UCLA (-3.5, 55.5)

OK, sure, there are more highly ranked teams facing off. There's even a ranked-on-ranked game between Baylor and Oklahoma State on Saturday, which should tell you exactly how much stock we should put in the polls. However, even with both UCLA and Arizona State getting upset two weeks ago, this is still a matchup that will go a long way in determining who comes out of the south to make the Pac-12 championship game, potentially against Oregon.

Arizona State gave one away against BYU, but it can compete athletically with UCLA, which almost handed out a win to Stanford last week. The Sun Devils' run defense will step up and Herm Edwards' squad makes this one a coin flip, and we'll have the points in our pocket.

Pick: Arizona State +3.5

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.