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If you thought bowl games were tough to cap in the past, bettors are in for a doozie this year. Injuries, opt-outs, coaching changes, and motivation are among the many decisive factors wreaking havoc on this year's slate.
Let's have some fun and make a bet on every spread. Here are our picks, from most confident to least.
1. Nevada vs. Tulane (-3)
Nevada's a great story out of the Mountain West this year, but give me Tulane in this smash spot. Head coach Willie Fritz is typically locked in here, covering 13 of the last 16 as a favorite and six of the last seven outside of the conference.
Meanwhile, the Wolfpack have played one of the easiest schedules in the country this season and now face a rising program out of the AAC. This is an extremely cheap buy on the Green Wave.
Pick: Tulane -3
2. Ole Miss vs. Indiana (-7)
This line makes you scratch your head until you realize Indiana's going to do whatever it wants on the ground. Ole Miss allows more than 200 rushing yards per game, giving the Hoosiers' running attack a security blanket for 60 minutes.
Pick: Indiana -7
3. Western Kentucky vs. Georgia State (-4.5)
Western Kentucky deserves a sprinkle on the moneyline here. The Hilltoppers bottomed out of the Conference USA race early but won three in a row to close out the year on a high note.
Head coach Tyson Helton has covered three consecutive in the underdog role. SP+ also sees a discrepancy in this one, slotting Western Kentucky seven spots ahead of its bowl opponent.
Pick: Western Kentucky +4.5
4. Hawaii vs. Houston (-13)
Call me crazy, but Houston might roll in this spot. SP+ is high on the Cougars, pegging them No. 50. Hawaii, meanwhile, is just No. 102.
Pick: Houston -13
5. North Carolina State vs. Kentucky (-3)
Kentucky's had a long season, so I question how bad the Wildcats want to keep playing. NC State ranks 17 spots ahead of them in SP+ and is 7-3-1 against the spread in the last 11 bowls.
Pick: NC State +3
6. North Texas vs. Appalachian State (-19)
These two are heading in opposite directions. Appalachian State finished the year on a 1-6 run ATS and didn't qualify for the conference title. North Texas, meanwhile, nabbed three wins in its final five tries after kicking off the season 1-4.
However, if we're playing the numbers, give me the Mountaineers: They're 80 spots ahead of the Mean Green in SP+ rankings, making this an easy call.
Pick: Appalachian State -19
7. Louisiana Tech vs. Georgia Southern (-6.5)
Most programs might not care about bowls, but Louisiana Tech likely will. Head coach Skip Holtz is a solid bet this time of the year, covering seven of the last eight postseason contests.
Pick: Louisiana Tech +6.5
8. Ohio State vs. Clemson (-7.5)
I think Ohio State comes out firing in a rematch of last year's semifinal. The Buckeyes didn't look great in the Big Ten title game, but they'll likely have all their key pieces back. This should be a fun one.
Pick: Ohio State +7.5
9. Ball State vs. San Jose State (-7)
Ball State's been outgained in three of the last four on a per-play basis, while San Jose State's riding high with an MWC win over powerhouse Boise. I'm laying the chalk.
Pick: San Jose State -7
10. Mississippi State vs. Tulsa (-2.5)
Mississippi State has fallen off a cliff. The Bulldogs don't even rank inside the top 80 of SP+ after finishing the year with a 3-7 record in Mike Leach's first season as head coach.
Tulsa, meanwhile, is 4-0 ATS in the last four and 5-1 ATS in the last six bowl games.
Pick: Tulsa -2.5
11. UTSA vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (-13)
Motivation could be a major decider in this one. Louisiana surely isn't thrilled to be settling for the First Responder Bowl after the Sun Belt championship game was canceled, while UTSA will be jazzed up for its first bowl game since 2016 and second in team history.
The Ragin' Cajuns are strong against the pass but weak against the run, which plays into the hands of a Roadrunners squad that likes to ride running back Sincere McCormick - and the team will do the same here to cover.
Pick: UTSA (+13)
12. South Carolina vs. UAB (-4.5)
UAB's a fun bet to make, but I can't ignore the discrepancy between the SEC and Conference USA. If anything, the underdog role's the only one South Carolina's been crushing it in: The Gamecocks are 4-0 ATS the last four when getting points and 5-0 ATS in the last five neutral-site games as 'dogs.
Pick: South Carolina +4.5
13. Cincinnati vs. Georgia (-7)
Cincinnati has the playmaking ability on the back seven to hold up on the perimeter. But can the Bearcats handle Georgia's running game? That will be the deciding factor in this one.
The AAC affiliate is currently ranked higher than the Bulldogs in defensive efficiency, but look for Georgia to show who the cream of the crop is.
Pick: Georgia -7
14. Missouri vs. Iowa (-14)
Iowa is just going to run, run, and run some more on this Missouri defense. The two touchdowns look appetizing, but the favorite cruises here.
Pick: Iowa -14
15. Florida Atlantic vs. Memphis (-10)
No chance I'm wagering literal money on this Memphis program. The team has shown frequent signs of going through the motions since last month. The Tigers nearly lost to an underwhelming Navy squad then followed that with a 14-point defeat to Tulane.
Florida Atlantic is top 10 in the country in scoring defense and I'm questioning just how badly Memphis wants to be here.
Pick: Florida Atlantic +10
16. Oklahoma vs. Florida (-3)
Call it square, but Florida -3 has my attention. There's just so much speed and athleticism in the skill corps, the Gators might hang 100.
Pick: Florida -3
17. Marshall vs. Buffalo (-3)
Ah, yes, the Hangover Bowl between two conference champion runner-ups. There isn't a clear-cut side I'm hurrying to bet, but I wouldn't mind investing in Buffalo, which leads the nation in rushing yards per game (309.2).
The Bulls are also 4-0 ATS following an outright loss.
Pick: Buffalo -3
18. Arkansas vs TCU (-6)
I'm fading TCU, which has covered just three of the last seven bowls under Gary Patterson. Arkansas, meanwhile, is 8-2 ATS the last 10 vs. the Big 12.
Pick: Arkansas +6
19. Colorado vs. Texas (-13.5)
Colorado will be a popular 'dog, but I like Texas. SP+ slots the Longhorns inside the top 20 while the Buffaloes hang outside the top 60. This is a pretty big mismatch.
Pick: Texas -13.5
20. North Carolina vs. Texas A&M (-6.5)
This game is a groin-kick for Texas A&M, which had hoped to be in the playoff. But this contest is still a chance to make a statement and the team has what it takes to make a big one against an exciting Tar Heels squad they match up well with. Jimbo Fisher has a strong record in bowls and will have the Aggies ready to go.
Pick: Texas A&M -6.5
21. UCF vs. BYU (-7)
BYU might struggle with UCF's speed, so I'll take the seven. The Knights are 4-0 ATS the last four against winning teams.
Pick: UCF +7
22. Notre Dame vs. Alabama (-19.5)
Alabama's just 2-6 ATS the last eight in January while Notre Dame's the sixth-best team according to SP+. Speed might wear down the Fighting Irish, but I'm keen on the +19.5.
Pick: Notre Dame +19.5
23. Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina (-6)
If everyone's healthy, give me Liberty. All they've done is cover seven straight games and 21 of the last 28 as an underdog.
Pick: Liberty +6
24. Tennessee vs. West Virginia (-3.5)
In a battle between two middle-of-the-road programs from different conferences, I'll take Tennessee. SP+ sees a huge discrepancy between West Virginia (No. 34) and the Volunteers (No. 60), but the latter has played a much tougher schedule.
Pick: Tennessee -3.5
25. Auburn vs. Northwestern (-3.5)
I have to take the points here or else I'll regret it. Northwestern's Pat Fitzgerald is just 1-6-1 ATS in the last eight non-conference games and I can't trust the Wildcats to lay points on an SEC club.
Pick: Auburn +3.5
26. Oregon vs. Iowa State (-4.5)
These teams lost five games between them this year, which doesn't exactly put the fiesta in Fiesta Bowl.
Still, it's a homecoming for Brock Purdy and this veteran Iowa State squad is focused on signing off on a high.
Pick: Iowa State -4.5
27. Miami @ Oklahoma State (-3)
Well, I haven't picked an Oklahoma State contest correctly all year, so this should be fun.
That being said, I have to go with the Cowboys here. Head coach Mike Gundy has ripped off four straight bowl covers and is 14-3 ATS the last 17 non-conference games.
Pick: Oklahoma State -3
28. Wake Forest vs. Wisconsin (-7)
Something tells me Wake Forest makes this a game, but only on gut feel alone. I'll take the touchdown with the Demon Deacons, who have quietly covered five of the last six.
Pick: Wake Forest +7
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.
