CFB upset alert: Oklahoma State's crushing it as an underdog
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Our upset pick of the week last Saturday was on Louisville plus the points at Virginia. Naturally, multiple Cardinals starters were ruled out due to COVID-19 just prior to kickoff. That's the 2020 college football season in a nutshell.
As we march into Week 12, here's which favorite needs to be careful.
Upset alert: Oklahoma (-7 vs. Oklahoma State)
Oklahoma has owned this series. The Sooners are 7-1 straight up and 5-3 against the spread over the last eight against Oklahoma State, with four of those wins by double digits.
However, this is year the Cowboys turn the tide.
Head coach Mike Gundy's been at a disadvantage in this series almost religiously. His team's been an underdog of 11 or more points or more in five of the last seven meetings. But entering Saturday's clash, not much separates these two clubs.
Advanced metric SP+ ranks the Sooners No. 12 nationally and the Cowboys No. 15. Oklahoma's sixth-ranked scoring offense can make any opponent look foolish, but this isn't some Saturday matinee against Kansas. Oklahoma State gives up just 17.8 points per game and is No. 7 in the country in defensive SP+, and that includes a Week 9 game against Texas in which the Longhorns lucked into 41 points on just 287 total yards. Gundy's squad is legit.
It's seemingly the perfect time for Oklahoma State to play its biggest game of the year. The Pokes are off their bye week, and they've covered four of the last five games off it. Gundy and Co. responded well the last time they had extra rest - they returned from a three-week hiatus to win and cover against Iowa State in October.
Don't be surprised if Oklahoma State's offense finds its groove here. The Cowboys haven't lit the world on fire in 2020 - they're averaging 28 points per game and are No. 45 in offensive SP+ - but Gundy's units typically fare well in this spot. The Pokes are 5-0 against the spread when getting points away from home, and the offense has averaged 34 points per game over that span.
| Opponent | Line | Final |
|---|---|---|
| TCU | +11 | W 34-27 |
| Texas | +7 | L 36-30 |
| Oklahoma | +21.5 | L 48-47 |
| Texas A&M | +5 | L 24-21 |
| Colorado | +3 | W 38-8 |
Oklahoma may be the class of the Big 12, but getting the Cowboys at +7 is just stealing. They're 18-6 ATS the last 24 as 'dogs and 6-2-1 ATS the last nine on the road.
The Sooners, meanwhile, are 2-6 ATS the last eight against teams with winning records and 1-4 ATS the last five after a win by 20 or more.
Gundy gets a signature win on the road here.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.