CFB upset of the week: Lovie Smith, Illinois pull off another shocker
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We were off the mark in last week's upset pick, as Minnesota was no match for Michigan. Who can pull off the shocker this weekend?
Before we dive into our Week 9 pick, here are the favorites who are safe.
Georgia (-15 @ Kentucky)
Bettors shouldn't even try to find a buy-low spot to bet Kentucky, which just totaled a whopping 145 yards of total offense against Missouri. Georgia might not have a ton of juice offensively, but points will be at a premium for the Wildcats.
Cincinnati (-6.5 vs. Memphis)
Cincinnati should have no problem against Memphis after steamrolling another uptempo, spread-out offense in SMU. Bearcats head coach Luke Fickell knows how to get his team prepared against the upper class, going 4-0 against the spread over the last four games against teams with winning records.
Central Florida (-2.5 @ Houston)
As intriguing as Houston is in Year 2 under Dana Holgorsen, I'd need a whole lot more on the Cougars to bet them against high-flying UCF. Although the Knights have a pair of losses this season, there's still a talent mismatch that's keeping me off what would be a very short price.
Upset of the week: Illinois (+7) vs. Purdue
No mincing words when recapping Illinois' Week 1 performance against Wisconsin: The Fighting Illini were stale on offense and worn down on defense in the 45-7 drubbing. However, I wouldn't mind grabbing the points with them when they host Purdue as touchdown-sized underdogs Saturday.
The Boilermakers are riding high following an upset win over Iowa last weekend, but how good was their victory? The Hawkeyes were one of the most fraudulent teams in the country last season, and they outgained Purdue by close to 100 yards on the road.
Purdue's always been a solid bet as an underdog with head coach Jeff Brohm. However, the Boilermakers struggle as favorites: They're 2-5 ATS over the last seven games and 3-7-1 ATS over the last 11 when laying points away from home.
Meanwhile, the Fighting Illini just played arguably the best defense they'll see all season long. Purdue's a serious step down in competition. The Boilermakers allowed 12 yards per completion to Iowa sophomore quarterback Spencer Petras and would've surrendered more than 20 points had it not been for a pair of Hawkeye turnovers in Purdue territory.
But perhaps most important of all, the Illini's defense won't have to scheme for star wide receiver Rondale Moore, who's out for the second straight week.
Lovie Smith pulled off three double-digit upsets a year ago, so a seven-point cushion is nothing for the Illinois head coach. Bet the Fighting Illini, who are 5-2 ATS over the last seven contests as underdogs and 6-2 ATS over the last eight conference games.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.