CFB Week 4 upset alert: How legit is BYU?
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We didn't get a chance to watch our upset pick go to work last week, as Houston's game against Baylor was postponed. Nonetheless, we're still 1-0 on the year after correctly picking Georgia Tech to shock Florida State as 12.5-point underdogs two weeks ago.
Here's how the board looks for the upcoming slate.
Week 4 lines
| Matchup | Spread |
|---|---|
| UAB @ South Alabama | UAB -6 |
| Middle Tennessee State @ UTSA | UTSA -6 |
| Kansas State @ Oklahoma | OU -27.5 |
| Louisville @ Pitt | Pitt -3 |
| Florida @ Ole Miss | Florida -13.5 |
| Kentucky @ Auburn | Auburn -7 |
| Georgia State @ Charlotte | GSU -3 |
| Georgia Southern @ ULL | ULL -11.5 |
| Georgia Tech @ Syracuse | GT -8 |
| UCF @ East Carolina | UCF -27 |
| Iowa State @ TCU | Iowa State -2.5 |
| FIU @ Liberty | Liberty -7.5 |
| Mississippi State @ LSU | LSU -16.5 |
| Texas @ Texas Tech | Texas -18 |
| West Virginia @ Oklahoma State | OSU -7 |
| Army @ Cincinnati | Cincinnati -14 |
| UTEP @ UL Monroe | ULM -10 |
| Georgia @ Arkansas | Georgia -28 |
| Duke @ Virginia | VIrginia -6 |
| Texas State @ Boston College | BC -18 |
| Alabama @ Missouri | Alabama -27 |
| Tulane @ Southern Miss | Tulane -3.5 |
| Tennessee @ South Carolina | Tennessee -2.5 |
| Kansas @ Baylor | Baylor -17.5 |
| Vanderbilt @ Texas A&M | Texas A&M -30.5 |
| NC State @ Virginia Tech | VT -7 |
| Florida State @ Miami | Miami -11 |
| Troy @ BYU | BYU -14 |
These teams are safe
Tulane is in a hangover spot after letting Navy crawl back from down 24-0, but Southern Miss lost on the final play of its game last weekend. The Golden Eagles have two losses as favorites this season and their head coach stepped down after one week.
LSU will probably roll despite losing so many pieces from last year's championship squad. The Tigers deserve a downgrade, but this isn't the spot to fade them.
Virginia Tech dropped from a 10-point favorite to seven-point chalk for Saturday's game against NC State. What are we missing here? The Hokies were markedly better last year with Hendon Hooker leading the offense, and we get to see the star quarterback in action for the first time this season.
Upset alert for Week 4 - BYU (-14 vs. Troy)
I'm going to take a stab on the Troy Trojans to shock the BYU Cougars in the late game Saturday.
Week 2 is typically when bettors overreact. It's common to take everything we see in a one-game sample from the opener and apply it to future handicapping. It's Week 4, and although the Cougars have had some time off, I still think the market is hung up on BYU's win over Navy.
The Cougars earned every bit of that 55-3 blowout. However, they were facing a depleted Navy team that didn't integrate full-contact practices before the season; the Midshipmen never stood a chance.
Troy's an intriguing program. This is head coach Chip Lindsey's second season at the post. He and the Trojans won't be fazed by BYU after playing Missouri, Appalachian State, and other reputable schools a season ago.
Troy is 9-3 against the spread the last 12 as a road underdog and 13-4 ATS the last 17 road games against teams with winning records. Meanwhile, BYU is 0-4 ATS after a win by 20 or more points and 1-7 ATS the last eight as a favorite.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.